January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[Tom]

After reaching a high of 41F yesterday along with 100% sunshine, I'm surprised to see how much snow is still left.  The low sun angel really helps this time of year.  The light and fluffy nature of the snow I'd thought for sure it would melt away.  In fact, I just took a peak out my window and there is still some snow OTG, but that will be obliterated today anyway so it doesn't matter.  What matters now is, how do we replenish the snow pack???  Storms, more storms and rumors of storms on the horizon??? 

 

If you live near the GL's, over the next 10 days there are several systems to track that include this weekends light snow event.  The models are not quite in agreement but someone may squeeze out and inch or two.  The next system on the horizon is for next Tue/Wed which the models have been flipping back and forth on.  Nonetheless, the ICON/EURO/GGEM all show 2 pieces of energy trying to phase near the Lower Lakes/OHV region.  The 00z Euro is back with a decent snow event across the GL's.

 

Once we get passed these systems, the pattern really gets quite interesting as a major battle zone develops between brutal arctic air and spring-like warmth across the central CONUS.  The period between the 10th-15th (ish) is going to be one of the more difficult and challenging periods of forecasting storm systems.  The extreme temp gradient being advertised by the models looks amazing and the moisture being advertised will add to the fun.

[Clinton]

Not sure that we have had a GEFS mean look this good all year.  The EPS is not as bullish yet.

[Tom]

00z Euro Control...it's seeing the 7th/8th storm....something I'm starting to see is more blocking developing in the modeling near the Archipelago and NW of Greenland.  While not a big signal, the trend has been towards a more neutral NAO around the 13th or so and holding steady.  This will likely become a key component once we get closer to the period when the Arctic air becomes established into the pattern post 10th.  Not only that, but we have to watch and see if the Alaskan Ridge starts to poke north into the Arctic regions.  There are LR signals that this may be in the cards. 

 

Take a gander at the 30mb warming...during the Christmas period you can see it begins to bulge northward and that signals to me that we should see more ridging poke northward in the extended.

 

 

 

[Niko]

Attm, 37F under cloudy skies. Despite having temps in the upper 30s, snowcover is holding on nicely thanks to low sun angle.

[Minny_Weather]

The snow is all gone here except in shaded areas. Wasn't expecting 2" to last very long in this warm pattern anyway. Still an inch or so in shade. 39.2*F.

[Niko]

Areas most likely to receive a 1- to 3-inch snowfall with locally higher amounts will extend from southern Illinois to northern Ohio and southern Michigan during Friday night.

[MIKEKC]

Gary Lezak claims the LRC shows major arctic air late this month into Feb. The data along with Tom have shown why it might be here around the 10th or shortly after. Gary says it is more likely later this month.

 

I would agree with the current data and Tom as this 60 day pattern (that’s what Gary says the pattern is) would bring back the V-day storm along with the record cold back in early to mid-Nov.

 

However, following that cold outbreak, the pattern went right to a blow torch for many and that has lasted 6+ weeks. We’re still in a very warm pattern.

 

So, how can the pattern suggest arctic air at the end of the month using the LRC? The end of the month we will still be in cycle two, matching the start of the blow torch in cycle one. Cycle 3 would not start until Feb. 7-10th??

[Minny_Weather]

I don't think this Winter will be a complete torch, but it will be looked back at unfavorably similar to 2015-16. 

[Clinton]

12Z ICON phases the 2 streams together just in time to hit our eastern members. Jan 7th and 8th

[bud2380]

most models dropping 1-2" across Iowa Friday evening into Sat AM.  GFS shown below.  

 

[james1976]

most models dropping 1-2" across Iowa Friday evening into Sat AM. GFS shown below.

 

That would be a big deal for mby according to how this season has went so far lol

[CentralNebWeather]

‪We are headed to Eastern Nebraska for a belated Christmas tomorrow. Relatives said they’ve only had 4” of snow so far for the season since October. Parts of Central Nebraska have had 24-40”, with the highest totals north of Kearney towards Ord and Broken Bow. ‬My place has had 27” according to local newspaper stats. I feel bad for the areas that have been missed over and over again. I’m lucky we’ve had 2 big storms and several small events.

[westMJim]

Last  year GR had 31 days in a row of above average temperatures at the end of December and into January. This year we are now at 14 days in a row of above average temperatures. At this time it is 44 here with sunshine. There still is snow on the ground but that will not last too long with the temperatures in the mid 40's and sunny.

[Niko]

Partly cloudy skies currently and temps AN once again at 40F.

[james1976]

Springlike feel at 40 already and no snow OTG.

[Tom]

12z GEFS looking better for the 7th/8th system...definitely trending better with more members showing a developed storm...

 

[Niko]

12Z ICON phases the 2 streams together just in time to hit our eastern members. Jan 7th and 8th

[jaster220]

Not sure that we have had a GEFS mean look this good all year.  The EPS is not as bullish yet.

 

 

12Z ICON phases the 2 streams together just in time to hit our eastern members. Jan 7th and 8th

 

Keep flashing "Cyber Snow" over my region buddy!  Just wish my confidence in these modeled maps was higher. As posted by someone above, no sooner do they show some massive run(s) like the Euro totals Tom posted yesterday morning, they immediately begin the one-way trip downward. I know it's not within anybody's ability to control that, I just find it a shame how the models seem to be tweaked to pounce on data ingest and spit out the "perfect storm" with feet and feet of snow as a major carrot dangle! 

 

I'll continue to play along with this winter's fickleness but tbh, my early expectations have tanked substantially. Thru year's end, I sit with almost identical snow total to last winter and I'll need JFM to go bigger sooner than last year to change my current perception that this will, in the end, be just another flavor twist on last winter. To be clear, I'm not "writing off winter" but the proof's in the pudding as the old saying goes. Get me a legit S Stream system delivering the goods for SMI (not a map run) and we'll sit back down to the bargaining table and talk. 

[jaster220]

I don't think this Winter will be a complete torch, but it will be looked back at unfavorably similar to 2015-16. 

 

I know that season wasn't the coldest, but around SMI it was waaaaay better than last or this winter. Two "footers" and other legit storms along with a fairly cold stretch in January put that winter head and shoulders better.  

[jaster220]

 

Don't be fooled. You've not needed your blower since when?? 

[Tom]

12z Euro is looking better for IA folks but fizzles the northern energy as it heads east into IL...

 

 

[Niko]

Don't be fooled. You've not needed your blower since when?? 

I know..its been ridiculous weatherwise here recently. No snow at all.. ...Bummer!!!!!!

 

I got my snowfall though NYE!

[Tony]

Not much happening in the near term and the next "real" threat does not happen until the middle of the month and we all know how the long term has trended. I was hoping for a better trend for the beginning of the month but not happening and to tell you the truth, I would rather have the warmth than a dusting a snow and cold which is what we have had around these parts. Farther North and West have done fairly well and it looks like it might continue so good luck to those who have had a decent winter to date.

[james1976]

12z Euro is looking better for IA folks but fizzles the northern energy as it heads east into IL...

Nice 3-4" jackzone for my area. Would take that in a heartbeat!

[Niko]

My area is looking good so far........SEMI in for some of the "White Gold this weekend

 

Cities that have the potential to receive a couple of inches of snow from the storm include Indianapolis and Fort Wayne, Indiana, Lima and Toledo, Ohio, and Detroit.

 

 

 

A more potent storm has the potential to bring accumulating snow to the Midwest during Tuesday and Tuesday night. Regardless of the amount of snow that storm brings, strong winds could lead to sporadic power outages and painfully low AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures in the single digits and below zero degrees Fahrenheit from Tuesday to Wednesday.

[Hawkeye]

DVN radar will be down for more upgrade maintenance beginning January 6th and will last for up to five days.  The lengthy downtime for regional radar upgrades this winter has been no big deal at all because the weather has been so boring.

[CentralNebWeather]

Lots of sites I follow talking about an Arctic outbreak starting after January 12th in the Plains.

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings morning disco:

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Hastings NE

1219 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020

 

...Quiet and Continued Mild the Next 7 Days but there are Signs

toward the Middle of the Month that Much Colder Times are ahead.....

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)

Issued at 1219 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020

 

Arctic Cold and the Pattern: Temps have averaged much warmer than

normal since mid Nov. Temps typically swing back-and-forth

between warmer and colder than normal on 30-60 day cycles. So we

are nearing the end of this warm cycle. We have been seeing high-

confidence signals in the ensembles that a pattern change is

coming. We`ve seen multiple runs of the EC/GFS/CMC/JMA (Japanese)

ensembles and the the CFS mdl that the PNA pattern will become

strongly negative which is a high-amplitude ridge over the E Pac

and trof over the Wrn USA. This allows Arctic air to drain into

the Wrn USA and Cntrl/Nrn Plns.

 

So believe much colder wx is on the way...espcly as we get past

Jan 10th.

[Minny_Weather]

Euro with a WSW snow for here...... 10 days out.

[bud2380]

I just know that one day a storm is going to pop up and actually pan out.  It's gotta, right?  Crazy with the way the season started, i was certainly hopeful for a more active and colder pattern.  I only have 1.7" since November 10th.  

[Niko]

TOL_Weather---looks like you are in for a light snowevent this weekend as well if I'm not mistaken.

[Clinton]

Euro with a WSW snow for here...... 10 days out.

EC with another one a few days later, very similar track.

[Clinton]

12z EC most falls after the 10th.

[FV-Mike]

Tom Skilling has been talking about the flip mid month for a couple of days. 

 

 

[MIKEKC]

Can anyone give me a forecast for Arrowhead Stadium next Sunday, Jan. 12th?

 

Warm?

 

Cold?

 

Any weather?

[Tom]

Can anyone give me a forecast for Arrowhead Stadium next Sunday, Jan. 12th?

 

Warm?

 

Cold?

 

Any weather?

KC region will be centered near the vicinity of the storm track.  There is a storm system I'm expecting to see track right near KC but timing could be very close to the day of the game.  Hopefully it passes through a day earlier and you won't have an issue.  If the storm does pass through, then I would expect temps to be chilly but not frigid.  

[Niko]

12z EC most falls after the 10th.

Wow amigo, just saw this and jumped outta my office chair. WHOA to all of that snow for us.

[james1976]

How's the EC look for IA tomorrow night?

[Clinton]

Wow amigo, just saw this and jumped outta my office chair. WHOA to all of that snow for us.

Still along way to go.  But every model run has storms just blast your area.

[Tom]

NWS Hastings morning disco:

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Hastings NE

1219 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020

 

...Quiet and Continued Mild the Next 7 Days but there are Signs

toward the Middle of the Month that Much Colder Times are ahead.....

 

 

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)

Issued at 1219 PM CST Thu Jan 2 2020

 

Arctic Cold and the Pattern: Temps have averaged much warmer than

normal since mid Nov. Temps typically swing back-and-forth

between warmer and colder than normal on 30-60 day cycles. So we

are nearing the end of this warm cycle. We have been seeing high-

confidence signals in the ensembles that a pattern change is

coming. We`ve seen multiple runs of the EC/GFS/CMC/JMA (Japanese)

ensembles and the the CFS mdl that the PNA pattern will become

strongly negative which is a high-amplitude ridge over the E Pac

and trof over the Wrn USA. This allows Arctic air to drain into

the Wrn USA and Cntrl/Nrn Plns.

 

So believe much colder wx is on the way...espcly as we get past

Jan 10th.

It's interesting that they mention 30-60 day cycles.  I don' think I've ever read an AFD from a NWS office talking about cycles.  Pretty neat to see bc I absolutely believe there are cyclical patterns and their thinking lines up with the 30-day harmonic pattern of the LRC I've shown before.