January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[MIKEKC]

ICON showing the Jan. 10-11th storm with a beautiful ULL tracking perfectly for KC to Chicago to get a snow storm late next week.

 

I don’t expect any changes in this data for the next 6 days, so, I will plan on the 4-8 inches it is showing for KC.

[MIKEKC]

Clinton,

 

That storm better not slow down and carry into Sunday next weekend. There something going on in KC next Sunday around mid-afternoon. I can’t remember...

[Clinton]

ICON showing the Jan. 10-11th storm with a beautiful ULL tracking perfectly for KC to Chicago to get a snow storm late next week.

 

I don’t expect any changes in this data for the next 6 days, so, I will plan on the 4-8 inches it is showing for KC.

LOL I since sarcasm!

[Clinton]

Clinton,

 

That storm better not slow down and carry into Sunday next weekend. There something going on in KC next Sunday around mid-afternoon. I can’t remember...

Ya it's kinda a big deal and I just happen to be going.

[jaster220]

Waking up to another coating of snow this morning which is not enough to even cover the grass.  While I do love snow, I could really use a nice southern stream storm as Jaster has been talking about.  Speaking of southern stream storms, last nights 00z Euro hung back the energy a little longer and juiced up a large winter storm targeting the Plains/MW/Upper MW.  While this is a possible solution, the EPS/GEFS have this storm tracking a lot farther E along the OHV.

 

Just for eye candy, I'll post the 00z Euro's snowfall map...

 

Any reason to think the Ensembles are sniffing out blocking or suppression correctly at this range? That snow map with another MSP hitter has been $$$ this year and last. I have a very hard time going against it. It is ofc, slightly south of the last biggie, so I'd be glad for SE Neb Peeps if it could at least include them in the fun. Most have seen very little in the way of snow fall thus far. 

[jaster220]

Brief shot of upper 20's (near normal) and then AN for the next 10 days.  yikes.  We will be coming out of our coldest time of year by the time "winter" arrives. If it does.  Timing changes every day.   To be fair I would trade a cold and snowy winter for just ONE BIG snowstorm to track.  

 

All of next week continues AN w rain chances and we will be approaching the coldest time of the Winter season soon. I have been running AN from early December and the streak continues.

 

Put a fork in it...we be toasted

 

But first week of April's gonna rock! 

[jaster220]

The WRF has scored well with some clipper events here, so it's at least worth a 2nd look when it flashes something like this for tomorrow's event:

 

 

Some models also have a bit of snow here with another (un-phased) clipper Tuesday, which my office is mentioning. Might not be a complete shut-out here this week after all. The biggies next weekend will ofc, be rainers

 

 

 

-- A couple more precip chances next week --

Ensembles are in moderate but not full agreement of light
precipitation, mostly snow, on Tuesday, followed by a potential
for heavier precipitation Friday and possibly through the weekend.
There are some scenarios where this end-of-week precip may fall as
snow, but rain seems to be more favored.

 

 

[Tom]

The WRF has scored well with some clipper events here, so it's at least worth a 2nd look when it flashes something like this for tomorrow's event:

 

wrf-nmm_ref_frzn_neus_fh30-48.gif

 

Some models also have a bit of snow here with another (un-phased) clipper Tuesday, which my office is mentioning. Might not be a complete shut-out here this week after all. The biggies next weekend will ofc, be rainers

 

Jaster, the 12z GFS keeps trolling the GL's region with a 950'smb monster during the 14th/15th time frame...oh fantasy land...

 

 

 

 

 

Edit: These are prob the greatest wind gusts predictions I've seen on any model run...70+mph???

 

 

[Clinton]

Jaster, the 12z GFS keeps trolling the GL's region with a 950'smb monster during the 14th/15th time frame...oh fantasy land...

 

 

 

With all these fantasy storms that fit the LRC what will we do?

[Tom]

With all these fantasy storms that fit the LRC what will we do?

Right???  Just give me one..I'm not greedy...

[Clinton]

Right???  Just give me one..I'm not greedy...

Did you have one pegged for around the 18th as well.

[jaster220]

 

 

Jaster, the 12z GFS keeps trolling the GL's region with a 950'smb monster during the 14th/15th time frame...oh fantasy land...

 

Key word haha. I think the potential for another Lakes wind-bomb is actually better than avg as that's been a constant feature so far. Would be nice to get a snowy version for our back yards tho now that it's winter, right?

[jaster220]

Right???  Just give me one..I'm not greedy...

 

One biggie could make up for many woes of this season, that's for sure. 

[MIKEKC]

How do they all fit the LRC?

 

KC had .05 in total precip for the first 20 days of Nov.(that came from the V-day storm) The latest GFS has two big storms in KC in a 5 day period. We also had way below average temperatures for the first half of the month in Nov.

 

This go around we have well above average temps and chances for rain are much higher then chances of snow, plus, these are two huge storms, the ones back in the first half of Nov. were very minor and there was only one in the region.

 

So, this cycling pattern is producing the total opposite here in KC then it did in cycle one. Cycle one, cold/dry, this cycle warm/wet.

 

Now, I’m sure if I go back and read over the discussion I will find comments like “ when this part of the pattern returns in Jan. we will have extreme cold” why? Well, that’s the basis of the LRC.

 

Nobody using the LRC would have forecasted a wet and warm first half of Jan. If you look at the 60 day cycle. Right?

 

This seven weeks of much above average temps for most was not what the LRC did in the first cycle. So, how can we say this fits the LRC?

[Clinton]

How do they all fit the LRC?

 

KC had .05 in total precip for the first 20 days of Nov.(that came from the V-day storm) The latest GFS has two big storms in KC in a 5 day period. We also had way below average temperatures for the first half of the month in Nov.

 

This go around we have well above average temps and chances for rain are much higher then chances of snow, plus, these are two huge storms, the ones back in the first half of Nov. were very minor and there was only one in the region.

 

So, this cycling pattern is producing the total opposite here in KC then it did in cycle one. Cycle one, cold/dry, this cycle warm/wet.

 

Now, I’m sure if I go back and read over the discussion I will find comments like “ when this part of the pattern returns in Jan. we will have extreme cold” why? Well, that’s the basis of the LRC.

 

Nobody using the LRC would have forecasted a wet and warm first half of Jan. If you look at the 60 day cycle. Right?

 

This seven weeks of much above average temps for most was not what the LRC did in the first cycle. So, how can we say this fits the LRC?

It's not a 60 day cycle, IMO it's a 48-50 day cycle that had a 30 or so day harmonic that happened to be warm due to the teleconnections that are very hard to impossible to predict.

[Tom]

Did you have one pegged for around the 18th as well.

There's another one that should hit a few days after the 14th/15th system....its actually lining up well with the EAR that is to target Japan on the 11th/12th.

[westMJim]

Here at my house it is now cloudy and 34 the official Grand Rapids reading at 12 noon was 33. There is just trace amounts of snow in the shade and snow piles and that is all. While it has only been 3 days this is the first time that Grand Rapids has not had any snow fall for the first 3 days in January since 2007. The average H/L for today is 31/19. At this time it looks like only one day in the next 7 will be near average with the rest above average. As I write this the sun has just popped out.

[jaster220]

It's not a 60 day cycle, IMO it's a 48-50 day cycle that had a 30 or so day harmonic that happened to be warm due to the teleconnections that are very hard to impossible to predict.

 

Agreed. Same situation that hosed us to the south and east last year. 

[Bob1972]

[bud2380]

I’m very excited to watch this next storm cut through Iowa yet again. I think 2 winters ago maybe 3, it was the same deal over and over again. It seems storms never track through Missouri anymore. I just want one big storm. It’s been several years since Iowa has had anything close to a full fledged blizzard.

[St Paul Storm]

Here comes another N MN smash job on the Euro at hr 126.

[jaster220]

I’m very excited to watch this next storm cut through Iowa yet again. I think 2 winters ago maybe 3, it was the same deal over and over again. It seems storms never track through Missouri anymore. I just want one big storm. It’s been several years since Iowa has had anything close to a full fledged blizzard.

 

Map for Dec of 2010 Bliz. Have you had one since?

 

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro..... ta da!

 

[jaster220]

Here comes another N MN smash job on the Euro at hr 126.

 

I'm pretty sure you'll get your fair share in the upcoming re-looping of LRC systems. 

[hlcater]

12z Euro..... ta da!

 

 

Has a very potent looking severe weather event in dixie too as currently modeled. Has been showing up for a few runs now, interested to see if SPC bites.

[bud2380]

LOL. ***** and I shall receive I guess

[bud2380]

Map for Dec of 2010 Bliz. Have you had one since?

 

NWS hazards map Dec '10 bliz.jpg

I’d have to look at my records but I know we’ve had at least one big once since then. Maybe a couple.

[hlcater]

 

High amplitude loop through phases 4/5/6. I'm wary of any substantial cold for the majority of the month if this verifies.

[OKwx2k4]

 

High amplitude loop through phases 4/5/6. I'm wary of any substantial cold for the majority of the month if this verifies.

Would at least be post Jan 22nd in that scenario for sure.

 

Other than transient, storm-induced "wrap around" cold from storms passing to my north, not seeing any real cold in the future. Only fitting since October 8 to december 1 felt like winter at times. Guess you win some and lose some. Now it feels like fall or early spring almost.

[OKwx2k4]

I guess 45 is normal right now, but it's just been so much more calm amd sunny since autumn ended.

[Minny_Weather]

Our coldest low was back in November. We haven't even come close to touching that.

 

Light snow but not accumulating. Not like accumulations matter anyway. 33.4°F.

[Niko]

NOAA: and the beat goes on..........

Early week conditions remain governed by lower amplitude flow of
north pacific origin. This means a continuation of our existing
above average temperature pattern through Tuesday. Another shortwave
impulse embedded within this energetic flow will take a similar
trajectory across the northern great lakes on Tuesday. This will
present another limited window for possible light snow development,
but with greater potential again focused north of the region. A more
meaningful shot of cold air emerges in the wake of this wave, as 850
mb temperatures dip below -10C. This results in conditions more
typical of early January on Wednesday, before a warmer and
increasingly wet air mass builds back into the region during the
late week period.

 

[Niko]

Attm 35F w a few flurries.

[Niko]

Temps by end of next week reach 50F w rain. Crazy!

[Niko]

But first week of April's gonna rock! 

Watch we get couple of useless snowstorms in April.

[SE Wisconsin]

 

High amplitude loop through phases 4/5/6. I'm wary of any substantial cold for the majority of the month if this verifies.

If that does indeed verify, it will likely be well into February before we can even hope for any sustained cold and storminess.  This season started in October on such a hopeful note, now it's just fizzled into nothing.  Very frustrating!

[Andie]

A sunny 65* today.

It's been so long since we had rain of any appreciable amount, I actually had to turn on the irrigation system today.

Everything is so dry.

 

This is nuts.

[Hawkeye]

Last night, a band of snow redeveloped just east of Cedar Rapids along the pivot point track.  At one point there was a small, but heavy spot of snow in the Mount Vernon area in southeastern Linn county (CR is sw Linn).  I was curious how much fell in that area.  Well, there are new reports of 5" from Mount Vernon and Lisbon.  It was a close miss for Cedar Rapids.

[Niko]

A sunny 65* today.

It's been so long since we had rain of any appreciable amount, I actually had to turn on the irrigation system today.

Everything is so dry.

 

This is nuts.

Here too. No snow and AN temps since early December. The streak continues. Crazy! I wouldnt mind if Winter arrives in Februaary though and ends around mid March. I'll be a happy camper. Give me a 1 good snowstorm in Feb and in March (both being 1'+) and I will be ready for Spring afterwards.

[Niko]

Attm, 30F w cloudy skies.