January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[Clinton]

This is what I want to see off today's 12z GEFS....early signs starting to point towards a disruption of the PV in the extended and bringing the Polar Lobe back across the Pole into North America just after the middle part of the month.  All of this is caused by the huge Scandinavian Ridge.  Are we going to see flashbacks of Jan '19 PV intrusion???  Severe winter is on the table...

We need this blocking by the 13th.  The 13th-19th is the part of the pattern that produced 2 blizzards in the last cycle including a bomb cyclone in late Nov correct?

[james1976]

Its irritating. That pivot is just to my NW. I haven't seen a flake in a couple hours.

[james1976]

Poorly handled. There's about 12 counties in N IA that are at Winter Storm Warning criteria.

[james1976]

Well...I should say 12 counties have 4+ inches. I guess 6 inches would be criteria.

[Clinton]

Another great write up from NWS Hastings afternoon disco on the coming cold and active pattern.

 

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

National Weather Service Hastings NE

115 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

 

...Mild and Quiet Weather Next 7 Days but Mid-Late Month is

Looking Decidedly Colder and Possibly More Active...

 

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)

Issued at 114 PM CST Fri Jan 3 2020

 

Aloft: The beginning stage of a major pattern change is now at

the outer reaches of this fcst...and the new (-PNA) pattern should

be in place by next Wed. Progressive low-amplitude flow will cont

Sun-Wed but edging toward increasing amplification. Weak shrtwv

trofs will cross NEB/KS Sat night and Mon. By Wed...upstream

amplification and blocking over the Nrn Pac will be in place. Mdls

and ensemble means have been fcstg the PNA pattern to plunge

negative as a trof forms and is locked-in over the Wrn USA. A -PNA

pattern allows Arctic air to drain into the Wrn USA and Cntrl/Nrn

Plns. The stalling of the polar front just S and E of the rgn

also results in lots of clds and increased chances for precip as

vort maxima eject out of the Wrn trof.

 

Cold: Get ready for much colder air to arrive as we head toward

the middle of the month. And once it arrives...it will probably

stay. Temps have been very mild since mid Nov. With temps

undulating back and forth on 30-60 day cycles...it is probable

that once this cold air sets in...it will linger through Feb.

Temps will ebb-and-flow every few days...but they will favor

the downside.

My office is eyeing a storm next Friday as the pattern begins to change.

 

A strong LLJ looks to develop over eastern KS and

western MO Wedensday with soundings indicating we may mix down 30-

40mph winds in the afternoon. These winds will come with a warm up

into the upper 40s to lower 50s which will last until an interesting

system moves towards are area next Friday. This will be worth

watching trends as the trajectory of the shortwave ejecting into the

Southern Plains could lead to a favorable winter storm pattern.

[MIKEKC]

8 inches of snow in Iowa from that little guy...pretty impressive. Especially given the fact it’s barely cold enough up there.

 

Unfortunately here in KC we are headed towards another warmer then average month. Latest GFS had nothing but above average temps. No snow in sight! The ole Pacific flow in January, not something that screams snow.

 

Meteorological winter so far in KC shows an alarming 9.4 degrees above average on temps. Rye grass/cool season weeds are growing in some areas of the city. Turf is quite green for Jan.

 

Maybe something will change.

 

Clinton......that storm in Iowa stays strong enough, you just might get a surprise by morning. Looks quite compact currently and taking aim on you farther south.

[Hawkeye]

I have about 0.9".  It is very wet and clumpy.  I am getting some drizzle now.

 

Clarion, IA Is up to near 9" and it's still not over.

 

I'm glad I did not get 9" of this wet stuff.  I'd probably destroy my back trying to shovel it.

[Stormhunter87]

To my surprise it's snowing here and there is a tiny bit of accumulation

[Clinton]

8 inches of snow in Iowa from that little guy...pretty impressive. Especially given the fact it’s barely cold enough up there.

 

Unfortunately here in KC we are headed towards another warmer then average month. Latest GFS had nothing but above average temps. No snow in sight! The ole Pacific flow in January, not something that screams snow.

 

Meteorological winter so far in KC shows an alarming 9.4 degrees above average on temps. Rye grass/cool season weeds are growing in some areas of the city. Turf is quite green for Jan.

 

Maybe something will change.

 

Clinton......that storm in Iowa stays strong enough, you just might get a surprise by morning. Looks quite compact currently and taking aim on you farther south.

It's gonna come closer than I thought but most likely will stay off to my east.

[Hawkeye]

This morning, DVN had the best snow focused over southeast Iowa.  I don't think that area is going to end up with anything.  That's how poor the models were.

[james1976]

Man that pivot is just sitting there a county from me. What a bummer. If it wasn't for that initial burst I wouldn't have seen anything. Might still get a light snow burst if it ever stops pivoting over Clarion.

[james1976]

This morning, DVN had the best snow focused over southeast Iowa. I don't think that area is going to end up with anything. That's how poor the models were.

Yup even the short term models had no idea. Hard for offices and Mets to make a correct forecast with this mess.

Although I should note that DMX was honest about not knowing for sure where the heavy band would set up exactly. That being said, they were not forecasting more than 4" in any location.

[jaster220]

Wait....what’s wrong with this outcome?! Just kidding. I feel bad for you peeps to the east. You guys have waited too long for a good storm.

 

Oh, we get storms! In November when the grounds 50F and you know it's gonna torch in short order. What we've been waiting a long time for is a genuine S stream phased system during a winter month. The last one was almost 4 yrs ago now back on 3/1/16. Everything since during DJFM has been what you would term an "over running" event. A few have been decent, but the last system to get my office to go with a Watch/Warning was the 9" event Dec 11-12, 2016. So yeah, it's been a while. You would think that even in a stretch of off years, nature could chuck a bone once in a while. Not been happening so far. Let's see where this next amplified period takes/leaves us. The hybrid clipper related to the PV visit last January was a top-shelf WWA, so there's that I guess.

[jaster220]

It's gonna come closer than I thought but most likely will stay off to my east.

 

It has to, because to go further east might insight some kind of phasing, and we can't be having any of that. At least not in the real wx world. 

[Grizzcoat]

Of course Iam in the Twin Cities who got just flurries from this system while my county in IA is currently getting heaviest snow of the season. Neighbors reporting around 2" with probably another 1-2". I must be bad luck

[Clinton]

It has to, because to go further east might insight some kind of phasing, and we can't be having any of that. At least not in the real wx world. 

LOL. This pattern can't last forever but it's gonna seem like it for the next 6 days or so.  My are you over due, we have to get you a big one this month.

[bud2380]

Weird clipper. Glad I’m not home to be frustrated by this thing.

[jaster220]

LOL. This pattern can't last forever but it's gonna seem like it for the next 6 days or so.  My are you over due, we have to get you a big one this month.

 

I like the way you think buddy!  Unfortunately (and I'm not the only one to notice this either) it seems like nature continues to move away from "steady as she goes" seasonal transitions/patterns/sub-patterns and into what I term "bi-polar" behavior. Wild pendulum swings in temps and snow producing patterns are the most obvious examples that I follow closely. The frequency of BD chances has increased, but at the expense of consistent cold and snow covered ground in the less favored regions, especially the further south one gets. My region was actually one of the benefactors of the early move towards this lopsidedness, thus we saw an amazing stretch of MAN snowfall seasons. Now, we sit and wait, impatiently ofc, for the pendulum to swing back this way, or at least the random bone tossing..    

[Clinton]

It has to, because to go further east might insight some kind of phasing, and we can't be having any of that. At least not in the real wx world. 

GFS showing the storm on the 11th

[Clinton]

I like the way you think buddy!  Unfortunately (and I'm not the only one to notice this either) it seems like nature continues to move away from "steady as she goes" seasonal transitions/patterns/sub-patterns and into what I term "bi-polar" behavior. Wild pendulum swings in temps and snow producing patterns are the most obvious examples that I follow closely. The frequency of BD chances has increased, but at the expense of consistent cold and snow covered ground in the less favored regions, especially the further south one gets. My region was actually one of the benefactors of the early move towards this lopsidedness, thus we saw an amazing stretch of MAN snowfall seasons. Now, we sit and wait, impatiently ofc, for the pendulum to swing back this way, or at least the random bone tossing..    

I know what your talking about, last year ended a streak of 3 straight winters with no snow exceeding 3 inches.  Down here it feels like we get no spring or fall at all.

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

I understand via a post from that KLOT Met that 2013-14 coulda/woulda/shoulda been #2 all-time snowiest winter for Chicago were it not for some ORD measuring snafu during the early January PV Bliz. I wasn't aware of that issue, were you? That's a major shame if you ask me. I think I'd about blow a fuse if that happened to such a historic season like that here. 

[jaster220]

GFS showing the storm on the 11th

 

There ya go! Now to just hang onto that look. 

[Clinton]

There ya go! Now to just hang onto that look. 

This run of the GFS is playing out just how Tom said a couple days ago.  It has another of the late Nov big dogs showing up on the 14th.

[GDR]

I’m hearing that feb could be snowy and cold

[MIKEKC]

Clinton....Still not cold enough on this GFS run.

 

Back in Nov. KC had the storms but had warm air surges out in front of each of them the second half of the month.(the start of this 7 straight weeks of well above average temps) This GFS run shows the same. Backside light snow..

 

Just can’t get cold air to lock in, this GFS run is still Pacific in nature. Cold air dips in and leaves two days later, if that.

[jaster220]

I’m hearing that feb could be snowy and cold

 

Euro Monthly Snow Anomaly maps predicted that fwiw

[jaster220]

Clinton....Still not cold enough on this GFS run.

 

30 hours of rain, followed by flurries for SMI. Totally stoked! 

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

This run of the GFS is playing out just how Tom said a couple days ago.  It has another of the late Nov big dogs showing up on the 14th.

Showed potential but never really becomes that impressive. Decent front end thump of snow up in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, but little else for the rest of us. Cold air very progressive as well with little staying power that whole run.

[james1976]

Snowing pretty hard now as the back edge moves through. Up to 1.7" now

[Hawkeye]

One final narrow band of snow just passed through.  I'm guessing my total is 1.0".

 

A few heavier cells pivoted slowly just east of Cedar Rapids.

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

I understand via a post from that KLOT Met that 2013-14 coulda/woulda/shoulda been #2 all-time snowiest winter for Chicago were it not for some ORD measuring snafu during the early January PV Bliz. I wasn't aware of that issue, were you? That's a major shame if you ask me. I think I'd about blow a fuse if that happened to such a historic season like that here. 

Absolutely!  I remember that vividly and actually commented about it on here during that event.  I live about 2 miles or so north of ORD and I measured a lot more snow than what ORD actually stuck with.  I think they were 2-3" lower than most neighboring spotters that were reporting similar amounts as I was.  I was pretty upset about that bc it meant so much to where we could have placed that season.

[Tom]

Waking up to another coating of snow this morning which is not enough to even cover the grass.  While I do love snow, I could really use a nice southern stream storm as Jaster has been talking about.  Speaking of southern stream storms, last nights 00z Euro hung back the energy a little longer and juiced up a large winter storm targeting the Plains/MW/Upper MW.  While this is a possible solution, the EPS/GEFS have this storm tracking a lot farther E along the OHV.

 

Just for eye candy, I'll post the 00z Euro's snowfall map...

 

 

[Clinton]

Showed potential but never really becomes that impressive. Decent front end thump of snow up in northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, but little else for the rest of us. Cold air very progressive as well with little staying power that whole run.

 

 

30 hours of rain, followed by flurries for SMI. Totally stoked! 

 

20200104 0zgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_fh144-186.gif

 

 

Clinton....Still not cold enough on this GFS run.

 

Back in Nov. KC had the storms but had warm air surges out in front of each of them the second half of the month.(the start of this 7 straight weeks of well above average temps) This GFS run shows the same. Backside light snow..

 

Just can’t get cold air to lock in, this GFS run is still Pacific in nature. Cold air dips in and leaves two days later, if that.

I was referring mostly to the timing and strength of the storms, it's too early to lock on to a specific track and yes I would like to see the models keep trending colder.

[Clinton]

Here is a look at the EPS ensembles through next weekend.

And here is the GEFS ensembles for the same period.

[Clinton]

Waking up to another coating of snow this morning which is not enough to even cover the grass.  While I do love snow, I could really use a nice southern stream storm as Jaster has been talking about.  Speaking of southern stream storms, last nights 00z Euro hung back the energy a little longer and juiced up a large winter storm targeting the Plains/MW/Upper MW.  While this is a possible solution, the EPS/GEFS have this storm tracking a lot farther E along the OHV.

 

Just for eye candy, I'll post the 00z Euro's snowfall map...

If only I could get the Euro and CMC to meet in the middle.

[Stacsh]

Brief shot of upper 20's (near normal) and then AN for the next 10 days.  yikes.  We will be coming out of our coldest time of year by the time "winter" arrives. If it does.  Timing changes every day.   To be fair I would trade a cold and snowy winter for just ONE BIG snowstorm to track.  

[shakjen]

Winter wonderland here. Got a little of 3 inches. I like when the forecasters are wrong.

[Niko]

All of next week continues AN w rain chances and we will be approaching the coldest time of the Winter season soon. I have been running AN from early December and the streak continues.

[Niko]

Attm, 36F w cloudy skies. Average high is 31F.

[Madtown]

Put a fork in it...we be toasted