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January 2020 Observations & Discussion


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Just listened to Henry Margusity, formerly of Accuweather, who now has his own blog entitled "Weather Madness".  Anyway, his take is that the cold will likely come back east of the Mississippi the later part of January, but not unless the Pacific Ocean cooperates and the El Nino begins to subside.  I think he's spot on.  Somehow, it always seems like the Pacific Ocean is the bully when it comes to weather and climate.  It will have it's way regardless of all the other factors.  

 

My New Year's wish is that we all get to cash in on some awesome winter weather in 2020. 

 

Happy New Year everyone! 

 

I always enjoy reading your posts!

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Also, with respect to the last system, I made a statement that I would donate to a charity if I got hit good (6"+ or 10"+).  I posted in the storm thread, but didn't ever receive a response from anyon

Up in Duluth for the weekend. An astounding 29” of snow OTG and 72” so far on the season. Absolutely crazy snow piles. The snow banks along the roads are at least 5 feet high. I got lost and look wher

Well, finally back from an extended trip to the northwoods after convincing my family to spend the holidays up there.  I have to say, it's actually a bit depressing coming back.  Here are some pics -

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12z Euro...the first map is for the 3rd-5th system and then the last map is showing total snowfall post 6th-8th storm....busy week of model watching ahead for the MW/Lower Lakes region...could the tables be turning???

 

:huh:  :huh:  Suddenly, the Jackzone is SOUTH of me?? Seriously? After all this talk of warm rainers going over our heads or waaayyy north. This is schitzo stuff, lol

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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TOL_weather special  :)

1578236400-vayDXUTsS7w.png

 

Wait. A. Minute! He cannot stretch that dome across the Sub, then sneak a storm in for his back yard. Calling a foul on him if that verifies  :P  

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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The Euro still has a decent system on the 7th.  The other models either have nothing or not much until east of the subforum.

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Welcome to 2020!  The future is here...sounds crazy to say this after watching so many movies in the 90's and seeing what 2020 may look like.  Well, we are all here and it's a great time to be alive!  For our snow enthusiasts, the 00z Euro still trying to lay down a significant snow for IN/OH/S MI peeps for the weekend storm.

 

 

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Good buddy of mine lives just outside Rhinelander,WI. They (Rhinelander)  just set the record for most snow in a calendar year (133") with a fresh 10" just the other day. Of the 133"- nearly half fell in FEB of 19' with 62".

 

Winter just seems stuck around the 43- 44 latitude line- North is Winter-- South is about 3 seasons in a week. Fall/Winter/Spring REPEAT>- there is just no staying power in any weather in this pattern.

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The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang.

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Rise 'n Shine on this new day of this new decade!  After a few hours of sleep, my internal clock just doesn't allow me to sleep in anymore like I used to.  In any event, here we are, the year 2020, and what a year it will be...I have a real good feeling about this year being extraordinary in many ways.  I'll share with you all some of the exciting things I've been working on over the past several years.

 

What's in store in the LR???  Boy, its like nature wants to hit the REPEAT button if you remember Jan '19, but there are some differences and I'll explain.  Firstly, nearly every single model is suggesting the return of a stout SER signal (-3 standard deviation) come mid month which will unfortunately (for us folks farther east/south) set up quite a battle zone and a stupendously active STJ across our Sub Forum by the 10th of this month (give or take a day or two).  There are a couple conflicting signals I'm seeing during this period, however, that may allow for the storm track to press just enough to allow more storms to cut farther east which will put more members out in NE/IA/MO/KS/WI in the game to be on the receiving end of primarily snow events.  I gotta tell ya, what I'm seeing in the models reminds of past events/patterns that suggest an extraordinarily active/wintry period that may in fact produce a historic stretch of winter (Plains/Upper MW/W GL's).  I'm almost certain that the norther tier of our Sub will be in a hot spot of frigid arctic air that will "pool up" and eventually bleed south in due time, but I think that will happen once we get past the middle part of January.  

 

In the meantime, we have several storm systems to track and the operational models are having a devil of time trying to figure out the first system due this weekend system around the lower lakes/OHV. 

 

The 06 GEFS members below still showing some decent hits...

 

GEFSMW_prec_snens_108.png

 

 

The following potential system has been showing up on the Euro run after run, but last nights EPS seems to have taken a step back.  Needless to say, the 6th-8th period needs to be watched as well.  

 

GEFSMW_prec_ptypens_180.png

 

 

The 3rd system on the calendar (which I originally did not suggest in my early post a few days ago) is between the 10th-12th which correlates to the Vet's day storm in November.

 

GEFSMW_prec_ptypens_282.png

 

 

The 4th system, between the 13th-15th has real potential to become a historic storm (Blizzard) for someone across the heartland and likely unleash the Arctic hounds the will be abound for our Sub.  I really envision something quite fascinating to develop and undoubtedly set up a similar extreme temp gradient pattern we all saw that set up in the months of Oct/Nov.  It'll be interesting to see where this battle zone sets up  shop over the course of the next 1-2 weeks.  Let's see how the models trend over the next couple days.

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01/12z NAM has come into better interaction with the weekend potential. Looking a lot more like the 01/0z agreement GRR mentions between Euro/GFS. 

 

20200101 12z nam12km_ref_frzn_ncus_fh66-84.gif

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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Nice! Thx Clinton, and Happy NYD 2020 to ya!

 

GFS trolling me with a Toll Road special way out there in La-La Land for the middle of the month potential Tom mentions.

 

20200101 6z gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_h372.png

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Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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I kinda miss the old system of using the “like” button. Anyone else feel that way? I’m not sure why they keep switching it back. The original way provides some transparency as opposed to the current way. On top of that, there is no way to track the current system of how many “likes” or “dislikes” you have.

 

Edit: What I meant to say in regards to tracking the current way, you don’t get notifications if someone “liked” or “disliked “ your post. You have to scroll back through the forum to see if your post got attention. Sorta defeats the purpose of having this feature and it isn’t really practical.

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I kinda miss the old system of using the “like” button. Anyone else feel that way? I’m not sure why they keep switching it back. The original way provides some transparency as opposed to the current way. On top of that, there is no way to track the current system of how many “likes” or “dislikes” you have.

I liked the old way also.

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12z GEFS mean for this weekend system...if trends look better today it may be thread worthy....I'm seeing more ensemble agreement of a plowable snow event for IN/MI/OH folks...possibly into IL...

 

GEFSMW_prec_meansnacc_096.png

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I kinda miss the old system of using the “like” button. Anyone else feel that way? I’m not sure why they keep switching it back. The original way provides some transparency as opposed to the current way. On top of that, there is no way to track the current system of how many “likes” or “dislikes” you have.

 

Edit: What I meant to say in regards to tracking the current way, you don’t get notifications if someone “liked” or “disliked “ your post. You have to scroll back through the forum to see if your post got attention. Sorta defeats the purpose of having this feature and it isn’t really practical.

 

 

I kinda miss the old system of using the “like” button. Anyone else feel that way? I’m not sure why they keep switching it back. The original way provides some transparency as opposed to the current way. On top of that, there is no way to track the current system of how many “likes” or “dislikes” you have.

 

Edit: What I meant to say in regards to tracking the current way, you don’t get notifications if someone “liked” or “disliked “ your post. You have to scroll back through the forum to see if your post got attention. Sorta defeats the purpose of having this feature and it isn’t really practical.

 

 

I liked the old way also.

I prefer the old version a lot better as well.

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Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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I kinda miss the old system of using the “like” button. Anyone else feel that way? I’m not sure why they keep switching it back. The original way provides some transparency as opposed to the current way. On top of that, there is no way to track the current system of how many “likes” or “dislikes” you have.

 

Edit: What I meant to say in regards to tracking the current way, you don’t get notifications if someone “liked” or “disliked “ your post. You have to scroll back through the forum to see if your post got attention. Sorta defeats the purpose of having this feature and it isn’t really practical.

Yup I agree!
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I kinda miss the old system of using the “like” button. Anyone else feel that way? I’m not sure why they keep switching it back. The original way provides some transparency as opposed to the current way. On top of that, there is no way to track the current system of how many “likes” or “dislikes” you have.

 

Edit: What I meant to say in regards to tracking the current way, you don’t get notifications if someone “liked” or “disliked “ your post. You have to scroll back through the forum to see if your post got attention. Sorta defeats the purpose of having this feature and it isn’t really practical.

You can add me to the list of who like the old way as well

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Perhaps the Mods should contact iFred and talk about this.

 

For the record I hit like on all the above approvals as I really agree.

I liked the tracking. Those that disagree should post their thoughts, or not if it isn't that important to them. It IS a discussion forum after all.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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The 12z Euro has finally given up on the amping of the Friday system.

 

However, the UK and Euro are both now laying down a band of light snow accumulation (1+") through the northeast half of Iowa as the trailing vort max dives southeast across the region.  It's too bad this vort does not have a bit more moisture to work with.  The stupid lead southern wave sweeps much of it away.

 

sn10_acc.us_mw.png

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season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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A happy and successful 2020 and new decade from your southern sister!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

 

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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And now the Euro is also backing off the Jan 7th system.  *sigh*

 

Update:  The system is still there, but more compact, faster, and south.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Perhaps the Mods should contact iFred and talk about this.

 

For the record I hit like on all the above approvals as I really agree.

I liked the tracking. Those that disagree should post their thoughts, or not if it isn't that important to them. It IS a discussion forum after all.

I agree.

Snowfall as of today:  Feb, 2021: 41.2"

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12z Euro has another progressive, warm system in the 9th-11th period.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I miss the old like button. Sometimes, I don't always have anything to say, but I like what you folks write.

 

Looks like a day 10-11 "hail mary" showing up on 12z GFS. The trends are becoming noted. We'll see how things go in 6-8 runs.

 

If I haven't already been by to say it, HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL!! Going to be a great decade.

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Amazing what a couple of inches of snow will do.  Improves the scenery and covers up all that ugly brown grass.  It also went a long way to renew the man-made cross-county ski loop at Lapham Peak state park here in SE WI.  I was afraid that 2 inches of rain would ruin it, but it survived in good shape and I was able to get in 24 kilometers earlier today. What a blast!  I hope "gimmie snow" was able to hit the ski hills and get in some snow boarding.  More snow please!  Bring it on!

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Amazing what a couple of inches of snow will do.  Improves the scenery and covers up all that ugly brown grass.  It also went a long way to renew the man-made cross-county ski loop at Lapham Peak state park here in SE WI.  I was afraid that 2 inches of rain would ruin it, but it survived in good shape and I was able to get in 24 kilometers earlier today. What a blast!  I hope "gimmie snow" was able to hit the ski hills and get in some snow boarding.  More snow please!  Bring it on!

They were closed one day, Sunday, and then opened back up on Monday. I went yesterday, it was pretty icy. But I am just thankful they were open. By noon they had a pretty good crowd. I always worry about these midwestern resorts making it, it's a very tough business. And Christmas break is their make or break time of the year.

 

They've been blowing snow as much as they can, they've done a great job at Alpine Valley. I was really surprised how well everything held up. They still have some decent base. It's basically a foot of solid ice on below of a little bit of natural and man made snow. But it's better than nothing.

 

Unfortunately, the next 10 days don't look good for making good snow. At best they can make overnight, and that's not really enough to fix the way things are. Really need a good 24+ hour stretch below 28 wet bulb to make good snow. When it hangs around 30f, it is bad. The sun is enough to make it loose during the day, then the sun goes down and it turns into ice quickly.

 

I am quite pessimistic. I am in "please just don't rain" mode for the rest of January. If I actually get to use my snowmobile around here I'll be pleasantly surprised.

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I kinda miss the old system of using the “like” button. Anyone else feel that way? I’m not sure why they keep switching it back. The original way provides some transparency as opposed to the current way. On top of that, there is no way to track the current system of how many “likes” or “dislikes” you have.

Edit: What I meant to say in regards to tracking the current way, you don’t get notifications if someone “liked” or “disliked “ your post. You have to scroll back through the forum to see if your post got attention. Sorta defeats the purpose of having this feature and it isn’t really practical.

I concur with you and everyone else. Please bring back the old system. Besides, who would actually use the ‘down arrow’ to dislike a post?

 

Happy New Year to everyone on here! I look forward to another year of storms, conversation, and learning. Cheers!

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Here’s some encouraging news right out of the gate on the first of the month/year:

 

MPX:

Looking out past this forecast period, GEFS/EPS mean h5 height

anomalies do show us trending to a potentially loaded pattern, with

a big ridge developing into the northern Pac, deep trough over

western North America, and ridging up into eastern North America.

So enjoy the first 10 days of quiet and mild January weather, since

early indications are that we will be taking a turn for the cold and

snowy come mid January.

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Here’s some encouraging news right out of the gate on the first of the month/year:

 

MPX:

Looking out past this forecast period, GEFS/EPS mean h5 height

anomalies do show us trending to a potentially loaded pattern, with

a big ridge developing into the northern Pac, deep trough over

western North America, and ridging up into eastern North America.

So enjoy the first 10 days of quiet and mild January weather, since

early indications are that we will be taking a turn for the cold and

snowy come mid January.

Yup, nearly all the ensembles are painting a wintry look starting the 10th and beyond.  As has been the case this season, MSP looks to be sitting in a good spot when this pattern arrives.

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wow the 18z came in and it's a fantastic run. One of the best ones I've seen for this area honestly. 

 

snku_acc.conus.png

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2020-21 Snowfall: (Hiawatha)

TOTAL: 51.6"

(Oct. 18: 0.6") (Oct 19: 2.0") (Nov. ?: 1.5") (Dec. 12: 3.7") (Dec. 23: 0.5") (Dec. 27: 1.2") (Dec. 29: 9.2") (Jan. 15: 2.3”) (Jan 17. 1.1”)  (Jan. 24: 2.5”) (Jan. 26: 6.8") (Jan. 31: 8.5") (Feb. 4: 5.0") (Feb. 6: 0.5") (Feb. 8: 1.0") (Feb. 11: 1.2") (Feb. 13: 1.3") (Feb. 21: 2.7")

 

 

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wow the 18z came in and it's a fantastic run. One of the best ones I've seen for this area honestly. 

 

snku_acc.conus.png

 

All I can say is, whatever year this finally flips back around and OMA to ORD is getting smashed, I hope folks remember these times of dearth in the heartland

Winter 2020-21 Snow Total = 35.1"  Largest Storm: 10.2" (2/15-16)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 1.5 Dec: 3.6 Jan: 10.0 Feb: 20.0 Mar: 0.0 Apr: 0.0

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.7"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 58.4" (118% of normal)

2019-20 = 48.0"  2018-19 = 56.1"  2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

 

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They were closed one day, Sunday, and then opened back up on Monday. I went yesterday, it was pretty icy. But I am just thankful they were open. By noon they had a pretty good crowd. I always worry about these midwestern resorts making it, it's a very tough business. And Christmas break is their make or break time of the year.

 

They've been blowing snow as much as they can, they've done a great job at Alpine Valley. I was really surprised how well everything held up. They still have some decent base. It's basically a foot of solid ice on below of a little bit of natural and man made snow. But it's better than nothing.

 

Unfortunately, the next 10 days don't look good for making good snow. At best they can make overnight, and that's not really enough to fix the way things are. Really need a good 24+ hour stretch below 28 wet bulb to make good snow. When it hangs around 30f, it is bad. The sun is enough to make it loose during the day, then the sun goes down and it turns into ice quickly.

 

I am quite pessimistic. I am in "please just don't rain" mode for the rest of January. If I actually get to use my snowmobile around here I'll be pleasantly surprised.

Yea, it is a tough business.  Close to where I live, Little Switzerland was closed for a couple of seasons, but has since reopened.  The next ten days don't look good but at least it doesn't look too crazy - no heavy rain or 50 degree temps at least.  I keep hearing on this forum that after mid January things may improve.  I'm hopeful, but skeptical.  Would love to get back on some long x-country ski trails and on real snow. Hope you can get on your snowmobile as well.

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Yes I messaged Fred the other day and said on behalf of the Midwest forum that we wanted the old like system back. He just said he was testing something, and I can confirm that it will be re-implemented.

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>1" Snowfalls for Fargo-Hector Int'l Airport in 2020-21: 10/20 (4.2"), 10/22 (2.7"), 12/23 (1.2"), 12/27 (1.8"), 12/29-30 (4.1"), 1/23 (1.9"), 4/13-14 (1.4")

 

Total Snowfall for 2020-2021 @ KFAR: 28.6"            Coldest Low: -25*F (2/15)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/15 @ 21:27 CDT

 

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In addition to the UK and Euro this morning, the ICON also has an inch or so of snow clipping through here after sunset Friday.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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GFS has nothing of note in the next 10 days for most of us. SE Michigan may get clipped with 2-3” per the GFS otherwise nada for 10 days. Everytime models show something promising it goes away about a day later.

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Season Snowfall: 39.5"

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The 00z Euro has moved the Friday night clipper snow well north, so we get nothing down here.

season snowfall: 52.5"

 

'19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"

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