January 2020 Observations & Discussion

[Niko]

Special Weather Statement

Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 907 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020 MIZ053-060>063-068>070-080415- Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland- Macomb- Including the cities of Saginaw, Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, and Warren 907 PM EST Tue Jan 7 2020

AUTIOUS TRAVEL IS ADVISED FOR PATCHY ICING OF ROADWAYS ANDBRIEF BUT RAPID REDUCTIONS OF VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT...WEATHER... * Dropping temperatures ranging between 31 and 33 degrees may   cause residual moisture from current snow activity to freeze   and produce patchy slick spots on untreated roadways. * Widely varying snowfall is expected. Quick snow accumulations   of up to 1 inch will be possible under heaviest snow activity. * Brief but rapid reduction of visibilities down to a half-mile   or less expected under moderate to heavy snow showers.IMPACTS... * The freezing of residual moisture on roadways may result in   patchy slick spots, particularly on bridges, exit ramps and   overpasses. * Reductions of visibility to less than a half-mile are expected   under the sporadic moderate to heavy snow showers.

[Niko]

Just reported Thundersnow in mby. Wow. Radar looks amazing w hvy snow.

[St Paul Storm]

Already down to 8F here. Heading for a low of 0F. #winter

[jaster220]

Just reported Thundersnow in mby. Wow. Radar looks amazing w hvy snow.

 

Good Luck, hope you get hit better than I did buddy! 

[Niko]

Good Luck, hope you get hit better than I did buddy! 

Thx amigo. Everything is whitening up out there.

[Niko]

Whiteout conditions right now. Holy Crap! Approaching half inch.

[Clinton]

Whiteout conditions right now. Holy Crap! Approaching half inch.

That is awesome.  Hope you get a bunch.

[Niko]

That is awesome.  Hope you get a bunch.

Thx amigo!

[Tom]

Your going to see a lot of people posting on social media about last nights 00z EPS...holy smokes, the trend is bolder with the cold!  Changes in the EPO/PNA are the culprit.  The pattern over the next couple weeks is loaded with storm potential and some vicious shots of arctic air.  The storm showing up on the 14th-16th is one that could develop into one hellova beast.  I have been yearning to track a storm that could produce an extreme temp gradient, wind, snow and vicious cold post storm.  Hopefully a lot of us on here can share in the wealth.  If you miss out on the weekend storm, don't worry, there are plenty of chances.  This pattern is loaded and one that can deliver the goods across a majority of our Sub as we roll through January.

[james1976]

GFS still has the 15th storm. That is a crazy temp gradient. The pattern goes wild after that. Idk if it will verify but it's been steadfast on this for a while now.

[Niko]

Back to reality. Temps at 22F, wcf at 5F and light snow falling. A little ova a half inch has fallen. There is blowing snow occurring now as well. Winds are very gusty too. Wind gusts as high as 40mph. Wild morning out there in SEMI. Finally!

[Minny_Weather]

Oh look, a dusting on the ground. I am shocked. 26.4*F.

[Beltrami Island]

Widespread -20s in northern Minnesota this morning.  Seasonably cold air is back for me vs highs well into the 20s.  Not sure how much further SE the cold air will make it over the next 7-10 days though?  That Bermuda high/SE ridge is hanging tough.

[gosaints]

Talk about a strong PV this season... Uffda

[james1976]

15th looks weak now on GFS but now its showing a powerhouse on the 20th lol

[St Paul Storm]

A balmy 4F here at 11:30am. Forecasted high is 12F. Not sure we get there.

[jaster220]

A balmy 4F here at 11:30am. Forecasted high is 12F. Not sure we get there.

 

Very strange post for this Sub 

[Clinton]

Your going to see a lot of people posting on social media about last nights 00z EPS...holy smokes, the trend is bolder with the cold!  Changes in the EPO/PNA are the culprit.  The pattern over the next couple weeks is loaded with storm potential and some vicious shots of arctic air.  The storm showing up on the 14th-16th is one that could develop into one hellova beast.  I have been yearning to track a storm that could produce an extreme temp gradient, wind, snow and vicious cold post storm.  Hopefully a lot of us on here can share in the wealth.  If you miss out on the weekend storm, don't worry, there are plenty of chances.  This pattern is loaded and one that can deliver the goods across a majority of our Sub as we roll through January.

I see the GFS is trying to model the big Gulf low on the 22nd-23rd.  I have a feeling a cycle 1 track is more likely than what we got in cycle 2.

[Niko]

I see the GFS is trying to model the big Gulf low on the 22nd-23rd.  I have a feeling a cycle 1 track is more likely than what we got in cycle 2.

Those dates need to be watched for big storms here.

[Niko]

Attm, 23F under partly sunny skies. Yay, there is snow on the ground!

[Stacsh]

uh oh.  Euro caving?

[Tom]

I see the GFS is trying to model the big Gulf low on the 22nd-23rd.  I have a feeling a cycle 1 track is more likely than what we got in cycle 2.

If you look at the surface pressure pattern over the next 2 weeks off the 12z GEFS, it literally resembles a similar look like in cycle #1.  The storm track comes out of the "slot" near the TX Panhandle region, into the Plains/MW and hook up NE into the MW/OHV/Lower Lakes.

 

Snowmagedon???  

 

 

[Hawkeye]

12z Euro at day 10.

 

[CentralNebWeather]

NWS Hastings Twitter page as of 10 AM this morning:

 

After nearly two months of mild temperatures, a shift in the weather pattern will result in much colder temperatures beginning Friday. There are strong indications that colder temperatures will be favored for quite some time.

[Tom]

If you thought the 00z EPS were cold/stormy....the 12z EPS notches it up even more!  The overall pattern is pressing the cold farther S & E each day which is pressing the storm track farther south which will keep those snow starved members in the game that missed out last year.  I'm holding firm with my ideas that a lot of us who missed out last year, will be compensated Bigly this year.  #WinterIsBack

[Clinton]

If you thought the 00z EPS were cold/stormy....the 12z EPS notches it up even more!  The overall pattern is pressing the cold farther S & E each day which is pressing the storm track farther south which will keep those snow starved members in the game that missed out last year.  I'm holding firm with my ideas that a lot of us who missed out last year, will be compensated Bigly this year.  #WinterIsBack

The EPO is the culprit and shows no sign of letting up

[james1976]

Hope the storms dont get too suppressed

[Tom]

The EPO is the culprit and shows no sign of letting up

Along with a slightly - to neutral PNA is ideal for a storm track across the majority of our Sub, except for maybe the far northern members. Not saying that they are out of the game, but maybe for the larger scale storms that track south.

[Hawkeye]

DVN radar is back up two days early.  

[Stormhunter87]

DVN radar is back up two days early.

OAX about to go down for a week.

[Minny_Weather]

OAX about to go down for a week.

Didn't they just go down for a week not too long ago?

[jcwxguy]

Didn't they just go down for a week not too long ago?

yep

[Niko]

Attm, 18F under clear skies.

[St Paul Storm]

Very strange post for this Sub 

Lol. Not for long if the models are correct for later next week and beyond. Not sure how far east the polar air will get, but the western sub is going into the deep freeze for a bit.

[Andie]

Wishes fo come true.

 

Friday will bring our area a cold front. Temps top 70* with a Low of 34*.

Thunderstorms will be with us most of the day with 1” of rain.

High winds and some hail possible. Oh wait, ....sounds like spring.

At least it’s rain.

[Niko]

Currently at 15F under clear skies. Dropping into the single digits tanite.

[Thunder98]

A forecast high of 68F and a low of 56F in Cinci on Saturday. Wow

 

[OmahaSnowFan]

This afternoon’s highs underperformed only rising to 35 and it looked like our streak of 40s to start the year was done. However starting about 630 this evening temps have slowly been rising and we’ve now crossed 40 for the day. With tomorrow’s high guaranteed to be over 40, we’ll start the year with 9 straight days over 40 for only the 4th time in recorded history.

[Niko]

Attm, 11F under clear skies.

[Hawkeye]

The 00z Euro brings temps well into the 50s back to northern Illinois in a week.