TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 GFS was a bit of a step back in the snow dept prospects for the valley but if the EC jumps on board then it's gonna get even more lit in here. At the very least, I think PDX north will see a foot plus. 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Tim you’re gonna wear yourself out, bud.By being a beacon of honesty and victimhood? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Probably the best GFS ensemble run yet. 3 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 It seemed to recognize the lowlands on the first map... the second map just goes ahead and buries the lowlands in 6+ feet of snow. Easier that way. I looked closely at the city graphics (weathermodels.com) and noticed something. It was a running day by day ensemble, many members, lots of colors. After about 15 days, I am guessing, it takes a big jump up in snowfall totals for all cities, so I am guessing there is a big decrease in resolution, hence the really large broad brush. Not sure if todays map literally means more precip and snow wherever there is snow, or a by product of the resolution change and more snow/precip at the last 3 days vs the last 3 days of the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 GFS dropped the magazine during the reload attempt. Probably saved a lot of lives.Nah, they were clipped together with blue tape. Blanks. Didn't you learn anything from Die Hard 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Jesse has to comment on every single post that Matt makes that references me. And on other posts that Matt makes that he thinks should reference me. Its so strange and so easily triggered. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Probably the best GFS ensemble run yet.Let’s see dem boys!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 You're not one to talk. Obviously! But I don't obsess over one members opinion of another member. That is far too complicated for my small brain. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Looks like I picked the wrong January to join an outdoor naked badminton league... 4 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakerepp Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Looks like I picked the wrong January to join an outdoor naked badminton league...Oh, I’m not the alone that joined the local chapter? Home Weather Station Stats for 2023 High - Satans Bunghole Lowest High - Not sure Low - I don't have the data Sub 40 highs - Not quite Sub-freezing highs - Try again Lows below 25 - You're joking Lows below 20 - No 2023 Snowfall - LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 All this talk of reloads and triggered members provides a lot of ammunition for explosive discussions. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 No models to look at for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Everett SnowCan u pls post these for PDX, SLE, & EUG? Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Coldest weather in awhile. Prolonged too. Could last into February. We shall see if that is the case with that pna. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Can u pls post these for PDX, SLE, & EUG?And YYJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 2, 2020 Report Share Posted January 2, 2020 Quite remarkably there isn't a single ensemble member on the 18z that doesn't have 850s fall at least to -8 at some point. BTW...it appears I spoke too soon about the reload on the 18z. The big picture looked excellent around day 11, but small details watered it down in the end. Still a good run IMO. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I kept thinking that I was looking at the same 12z models ensemble mean on days 10-15 as I switched back and forth between them since they all look so similar! Not too often that you see the big three ensemble means looking almost identical on days 10-15. Count me onboard now as well, this thing is coming. GEPSScreen Shot 2020-01-02 at 1.31.49 PM.png GEFSScreen Shot 2020-01-02 at 1.31.37 PM.png EPSScreen Shot 2020-01-02 at 1.31.24 PM.pngYeah, looks surreal! If you showed this to me at a distance, I'd think they were all the same maps. Really amazing to see this much agreement with all the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 No models to look at for a few hours. 3 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Looks like I picked the wrong January to join an outdoor naked badminton league...Singles or doubles? Asking for an old fishing buddy at the NWS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 53/43 so far today. Early January torch. Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Anybody else having trouble getting on the wetterzentrale ensembles site? If possible would someone post the 18Z ensembles for Seattle please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 High today of 41 sitting at 38 with heavy drizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 53/43 so far today. Early January torch. 39 here now. Too bad that stupid temperature spike is coming. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Anybody else having trouble getting on the wetterzentrale ensembles site? I haven't been able to get the old site today. I wonder if they pulled the plug on it. This is the same site, but new format. Better in some ways worse in others. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=136221&lid=ENS&bw= Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 39 here now. Too bad that stupid temperature spike is coming.Railroad spikes are even dumber Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 GFS was a bit of a step back in the snow dept prospects for the valley but if the EC jumps on board then it's gonna get even more lit in here. At the very least, I think PDX north will see a foot plus.IN TIGER WE TRUST! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winterdog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I haven't been able to get the old site today. I wonder if they pulled the plug on it. This is the same site, but new format. Better in some ways worse in others. https://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/show_diagrams.php?model=gfs&var=2&geoid=136221&lid=ENS&bw=Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Right now 8 out of the past 10 GFS Op runs have an excellent 500mb pattern. 12z GFS was absolutely nuts and moved timing ahead a bit. 7 of those 8 runs deliver an arctic blast and snow. GEM, EURO Op not there yet, but making some steps in the right direction. CMCE 500mb similar to GEFS. EPS improved. PNA looks excellent. EPO might flip to negative although we may not necessarily need it to tank. We just need patience. It's not the easiest thing to have sometimes. Cautiously optimistic. 00z GFS in 2 hours 50 minutes00z ECMWF in 5 hours 5 minutes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 On the weeklies it appears early Feb might be some kind of a window for intense possibilities again. At that point the ensemble mean reaches it's lowest readings for EPO, and the control utterly tanks on PNA. At this point though it appears anywhere between Jan 10 and Feb 10 is in play for some goodies. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Right now 8 out of the past 10 GFS Op runs have an excellent 500mb pattern. 12z GFS was absolutely nuts and moved timing ahead a bit. 7 of those 8 runs deliver an arctic blast and snow. GEM, EURO Op not there yet, but making some steps in the right direction. CMCE 500mb similar to GEFS. EPS improved. PNA looks excellent. EPO might flip to negative although we may not necessarily need it to tank. We just need patience. It's not the easiest thing to have sometimes. Cautiously optimistic. 00z GFS in 2 hours 50 minutes00z ECMWF in 5 hours 5 minutes I think with tanked PNA an EPO around zero would be fine. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Right now 8 out of the past 10 GFS Op runs have an excellent 500mb pattern. 12z GFS was absolutely nuts and moved timing ahead a bit. 7 of those 8 runs deliver an arctic blast and snow. GEM, EURO Op not there yet, but making some steps in the right direction. CMCE 500mb similar to GEFS. EPS improved. PNA looks excellent. EPO might flip to negative although we may not necessarily need it to tank. We just need patience. It's not the easiest thing to have sometimes. Cautiously optimistic. 00z GFS in 2 hours 50 minutes00z ECMWF in 5 hours 5 minutes As someone who's new to all this but very much interested in learning to read models, thank you for explaining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Would be insane if February delivered again. Or March. I have had 10"+ of snow the past 3 Marches. Actually...I have had 10"+ of snow in both the past 3 February AND Marches. Yet in 8 years I have only had 10"+ of snow in January twice. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 February has delivered the goods here: 2012: 16.8"2013: 02014: 10.5"2015: 02016: 0.5"2017: 13.5"2018: 18.3"2019: 52.2" And of course February 2011 probably scored 20-25" at my location. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Can we just hurry and get to February already? 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kayla Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Looks like I picked the wrong January to join an outdoor naked badminton league... You think you have it bad?? My fingernails have fallen off before the PV engulfs us all! Cold Season 2023/24: Total snowfall: 26" Highest daily snowfall: 5" Deepest snow depth: 12" Coldest daily high: -20ºF Coldest daily low: -42ºF Number of subzero days: 5 Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Singles or doubles? Asking for an old fishing buddy at the NWS.Mix. I’m kinda freakin’. Shuttlecocks might shrink in what may be top tier cold. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 The $32 dollar question is does the GEM, EURO make a subtle move towards the GFS tonight or completely cave(at 500mb) with the pattern delivering at Day 8-10. I dunno! I literally have no idea. Stay tuned! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Can anyone look into the future and see if the models are full of 10-15 days out? I need to buy new glow sticks at the dollar store for my snow monsters, should I be able to build them. Unlike you greedy bastards, I only need an inch or two to be happy. Kind of like Dewey’s wife. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts