seattleweatherguy Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 With that 850mb temp crash tomorrow night there could actually be some lowland snow if any C-Zones develop. Will be waiting for it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Far better than February. We had some snow and it was just barely cold enough. This is the real deal. Ideal timing nearing mid-January. C'mon it's not even close....It was the 7th snowiest month in SEA's 72 year history so people up here obviously are going to have a very different view of the impressiveness of that month. No real deep Arctic air though and it obviously didn't penetrate South particularly well. Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Yeah, that first low level shot was pretty impressive especially considering upper level support wasn’t all that special. Seeing anything that cold up north would be a pretty big win.There was a decent low level airmass out of the Fraser on the 3rd. Retreated pretty quickly but Abbotsford had a midnight high of 35F and had dropped to the teens by mid afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 More evidence for the GFS solution. Great pattern and .95% or higher correlation score. 00z GFS Analog Composite Day 6-10 Day 8-14 These analogs are a lot of cold onshore flow events...Not the "arctic blasts" people are hoping for. A couple were arctic, but most weren't. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day 4 ECMWF is slightly better looking than day 5 on last night's run. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 My wife was stuck in that mass exodus!!! Got home around 5am. Loved that storm, instant 2-3inches of snow with howling Northerly winds. Power failed quickly as the storm blew through. I remembered I-5 was littered with abandoned cars that night. Crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I could be wrong on this but assuming confidence intervals for statistical estimation. 95% confidence interval based on a set of population, in this case the years shown. Basically, if it falls within the 95% range or higher, there is a certain probability. So the correlation score measures the probability. Not sure if this is what you're looking for.So the score is how closely it matches past patterns. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 It was the 7th snowiest month in SEA's 72 year history so people up here obviously are going to have a very different view of the impressiveness of that month. No real deep Arctic air though and it obviously didn't penetrate South particularly well. I remember one day had a definite Fraser River wind at the beginning of the event, and then we had a cold east wind develop here the night of the 2nd snow event. It snowed with temps in the mid 20s. Pretty legit cold. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 So the score is how closely it matches past patterns.Yes. 95% is almost certain. Edit: in the analogs composite posted. C=0.955, C=0.962 basically means 95.5% and 96.2% respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day 4 ECMWF is slightly better looking than day 5 on last night's run.That trough offshore has been sure been de-balled over the last 2 00Z runs at that time. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 So the score is how closely it matches past patterns. Exactly. If a score falls below 80% you are talking about a pattern that is very hard to achieve as modeled. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I could care less about an arctic blast, don't need one of those to get a bunch of snow, IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Most people would be disappointed with a lot of the analogs there. Late December 2016 the models locked in an arctic solution. 850mb mean fell to like -13C, didn't quite turn out that way, but it did still get pretty cold and eventually lead to a nice overrunning event for the valley on the 7/8th. 1 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I think the ECMWF is going to move towards the GFS on this run. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Exactly. If a score falls below 80% you are talking about a pattern that is very hard to achieve as modeled.Once you fall outside of the 95% confidence interval, there are just way too many outliers to be included. Those will messed up the data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 At day 5 the high latitude piece of high pressure is still bonded to the mid latitude GOA ridge unlike last night's run at day 6. A step toward the GFS! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day 5 past 4 runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 1951 was decent for Oregon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I could care less about an arctic blast, don't need one of those to get a bunch of snow, IMO. I love the Arctic stuff. Much more enjoyable and truly wintry. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kokaneekidz Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 So so true. The absolute best pattern is to have the outflow begin around Douglas Channel and wrap around YVR island and hit us. Then it picks up the proper moisture without having time to moderate . It is the best outcome for SNOW measured in feet vs inches . Otherwise we just end up with a quick hitter and then dry out for a week or so and sublimation melts it all. I prefer the former over the latter. Then if you aren't satisfied ask for a reload to do the dirty deal and crash us to zero farenheit once we have the goods firmly in the ground. Over and out // I could care less about an arctic blast, don't need one of those to get a bunch of snow, IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Better Kona low on this run too. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 So so true. The absolute best pattern is to have the outflow begin around Douglas Channel and wrap around YVR island and hit us. Then it picks up the proper moisture without having time to moderate . It is the best outcome for SNOW measured in feet vs inches . Otherwise we just end up with a quick hitter and then dry out for a week or so and sublimation melts it all. I prefer the former over the latter. Then if you aren't satisfied ask for a reload to do the dirty deal and crash us to zero farenheit once we have the goods firmly in the ground. Over and out // The reloads are always a good bet. You get quick air mass transitions with those and lots of different snow opportunities. 2 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I remember one day had a definite Fraser River wind at the beginning of the event, and then we had a cold east wind develop here the night of the 2nd snow event. It snowed with temps in the mid 20s. Pretty legit cold.The cold was absolutely legit. It snowed hard here at 23 degrees at one point with over a foot on the ground. It was extremely impressive but mainly low level outflow based. 850mb temps and thicknesses never got nearly as low as surface temps would have suggested. 1 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Meanwhile the Eastern trough gets eaten up even more on this run. I was expecting that. Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day 6 YESSSSS!!!! 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Now we enter the stage where the models flip roles and so do some on the forum. Tomorrow, we will lose the GFS and the EPS will waver, but the UKMET, GEM, ICON, and Euro will get on board. Someone from the Seattle area will go from playing the role of the contrarian to getting on board and someone from the Salem area will go from being enthusiastic about the full monty to bargaining with everyone that cold onshore flow is good enough too. It's going to be a fun few days.You’ve been here awhile eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Looking good so far! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Euro on board! https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2020010300/ecmwf_z500a_namer_7.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 We're in! Day 6 on the ECMWF is unmistakable. Long live the GFS. 4 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I can't wait till Day 2 and it shows cold rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Late December 2016 had some of the coldest mid range runs we’ve seen since probably January 2005. Early Jan 2011 has a special place in my heart for busted mid-range cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Would be awesome to see an arctic front blast down Puget Sound with awesome force like 1990 or some of the real old time ones! 1 Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Now we enter the stage where the models flip roles and so do some on the forum. Tomorrow, we will lose the GFS and the EPS will waver, but the UKMET, GEM, ICON, and Euro will get on board. Someone from the Seattle area will go from playing the role of the contrarian to getting on board and someone from the Salem area will go from being enthusiastic about the full monty to bargaining with everyone that cold onshore flow is good enough too. It's going to be a fun few days. Or maybe a fun few weeks. 1 Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day 6 past 4 runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Early Jan 2011 has a special place in my heart for busted mid-range cold.Yeah that was good one too. High risk/high reward kind of battle ground setup. Never looked particularly cold down here. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard777 Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Or maybe a fun few weeks.Thats what I’m counting on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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