TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 CAVE 2 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 PRIMED FOR CAVAGE!! 2 My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 ECMWF definitely in the process of caving. Unfortunately, no. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Anybody wanna go to the Ape Caves to celebrate? 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 This is all going quite well. Can't really ask for much more on the models at this point. Just need to keep consistently seeing good sh*t on the runs over the next few days. Specific small details like temps and snow totals don't really matter yet...just the general pattern evolution. Block and cold air all seem to be close to perfect location. Would like to see the models line up on the timing a bit better is one thing I could say. 1 Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Well... the 12Z ECMWF still ends up being crap. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Euro certainly improved in its handling of the block and weakening the Alaskan Vortex, but still a ways to go before it agrees with the GFS's handling of the downstream trough over us. Yesterday's 12z Euro with the vortex and low heights still in Alaska: And the 12z Euro today with a more amplified block and higher heights in Alaska: But comparing that to the 12z GFS today shows it still has quite a ways to go: Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 The battle continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Although it might be about to get there at day 10... waiting for the last frame. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 The EURO is showing a very realistic solution. Cool troughing and 1000-2000' snow levels. In line with other global models. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Need better connection with the arctic ridge, amplification Day 6-7. GFS moved timing ahead. GEFS moved timing ahead and improved noticeably. EURO lagging behind, but almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Pretty clear the GFS is still on an island. GEM and Euro are miles closer days 6-10. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 EC a week ago showed us getting snow RN. Anything past day 5-6 on it seems iffy at the moment. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Still massive differences at day 9. Not caving yet. GFS: Euro: 2 Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Clear improvements TODAY PREVIOUS My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day 10 There we go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I would be stunned if the GFS does not start moving swiftly towards the EURO solution. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Euro looks like it's getting there at the end. Stop me if you've heard this before. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 If anyone has the CPC analogs I would love to see them. Thanks in advance. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Rob, you mentioned 1950 on your FB group today. In January 2005 the Seattle NWS dropped a 1950 reference in their AFD. Analog? Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Seems like a blend of the models would be a weekend warning shot followed by the hammer dropping 48-72 hours after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Remember last night 00z EURO Op was a step behind even this run and the 00z EPS improved. 18z GFS in 2 hours 30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Rob, you mentioned 1950 on your FB group today. In January 2005 the Seattle NWS dropped a 1950 reference in their AFD. Analog?I would say so. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 The EPS will be telling. Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I would be stunned if the GFS does not start moving swiftly towards the EURO solution.Why We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I would be stunned if the GFS does not start moving swiftly towards the EURO solution. Why We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Day 10 There we go This is the part that makes me wonder if the GFS is being too aggressive with the cold air. ECMWF is just not impressive in terms of cold even when the 500mb pattern looks good. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Why 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 This is the part that makes me wonder if the GFS is being too aggressive with the cold air. ECMWF is just not impressive in terms of cold even when the 500mb pattern looks good. It would be real cold Day 11-13 if we extrapolated. Also, the 00z EPS you posted last night showed a bitter air mass in BC/AB whereas the Op did not. 00z GFS in 8 hours 24 minutes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 It would be real cold Day 11-13 if we extrapolated. Also, the 00z EPS you posted last night showed a bitter air mass in BC/AB whereas the Op did not. 00z GFS in 8 hours 24 minutes Not necessarily. Nagging doubt every time I see a ECMWF run that does not show much of any lowland snow within 10 days and the cold not really that close at day 10 and we have to extrapolate. But maybe the ECMWF just sucks right now. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Because this whole setup is fake and the only solution here will be one where only SilverFallsTim gets snow. This is how weather works. Timmy's house should also be buried while he is on the beach in Hawaii. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I would be stunned if the GFS does not start moving swiftly towards the EURO solution. Like Tim said, a compromise seems most likely. 1 A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 There is really no evidence for major cold outside of the GFS operational. No ensemble support, none of the global models. I am sorry this is not what people want to hear. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FroYoBro Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 There is really no evidence for major cold outside of the GFS operational. No ensemble support, none of the global models. I am sorry this is not what people want to hear. Yeah, nothing has really changed in the last day. Pretty interesting to see the GFS sticking to its guns. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I think a January 2002 type of scenario is best case in the 11-14th period. After that who knows. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 This is the part that makes me wonder if the GFS is being too aggressive with the cold air. ECMWF is just not impressive in terms of cold even when the 500mb pattern looks good. I don't remember this being an issue during the fall blocking patterns/cold snaps, though. But we definitely had better model agreement leading up to those as well. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Timmy's house should also be buried while he is on the beach in Hawaii. I no longer live on snowy hill ridge. On the other hand, the super pretentious Brit that bought the house is in for a rude awakening when they can’t get out of the driveway for a week. Good luck to her jag and Maserati 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 12Z EPS at day 8.5 **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 There is really no evidence for major cold outside of the GFS operational. No ensemble support, none of the global models. I am sorry this is not what people want to hear. this is gold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts