Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 But it didn't. I think a lot about February 2019, to me it was something of a February version of January 1969. Point being, it all comes back to getting the right pattern. Top tier cold winter months, and temps, are still possible with the right pattern. And a little luck with snow cover, etc. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I grabbed the wrong image. I have like 150 maps saved on my desktop. Its getting ridiculous! I updated my post with the correct 00Z image after you quoted me. Don't see any big changes on the EPS. Strong signal for arctic air in western Canada and no end in sight.I just noticed. 12z EPS today has the bitter air mass several notches closer to us. Almost entirely removed from Yukon whereas 00z last night did not. If we continue seeing that trend we'll end up very cold. I think that's what happens too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 850mb temps never went below -5c here and I wound up with 15" of snow. Pretty wacky, especially when you consider it wasn't just a Portland/Gorge event. Widespread lowland snowstorm and sub-freezing temps all the way north through the Puget Sound. Must have been some really deep offshore flow and ideal low position? A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 12Z EPS 10-15 day mean: **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I think this is a classic setup where the snow chances at the lowest elevations are going to go up dramatically as you go north. I would be feeling really good about this if I was Shawnigan or someone in Bellingham. Even the Puget Sound. I think PDX and the Willamette Valley are in fine shape, but this definitely is going to be a N/S setup, not backdoor which favors Oregon. Also meaning, if there is lowland snow it is going to start a day or two sooner for folks up north, so we are going to go through the forum weenie freakout from jealous PDX weenies, who will then get their own snow the next day... We also have to remember, onshore flow with -8/-9C 850mb temps is not a sure thing below 500', timing and intensity of precip would matter in that scenario. I think a plausible scenario would be a decent Puget Sound snow event, a scattered 1-2" type of event south of the Columbia River, with a better chance for widespread snow PDX - south coming with some kind of shortwave associated with a 2nd push of cold air a couple days later. Just throwing scenarios out there, but that is one that seems like could happen in this kind of setup.That’s just climo. Areas north of Chehalis or so always have a better shot at significant snow in a cold onshore flow to modified Arctic air scenario. 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 How do you figure not backdoor? Meaning no backdoor cold? Yakima mean temp is -10c to -12c with a lot of members to -20c. I mean it's possible it's only cold onshore flow. The trough and 500mb orientation is N/S, not NE to SW like we saw with say the December 2013 blast. Doesn't mean colder air can't move down east of the Cascades or eventually offshore flow won't set up. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Wow. 12z Euro Op PNA tanks to -5 sigma, EPS to -4.5!!!! It's coming! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 That’s just climo. Areas north of Chehalis or so always have a better shot at significant snow in a cold onshore flow to modified Arctic air scenario. Not rocket science, but something people tend to forget in their excitement. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Best EPS run yet. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Here were the CPC analogs for the 8-14 day period yesterday...Today's should come out soon. 20020118195201012002012820070109200801261974012719520112197501271989011020020123 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Pretty wacky, especially when you consider it wasn't just a Portland/Gorge event. Widespread lowland snowstorm and sub-freezing temps all the way north through the Puget Sound. Must have been some really deep offshore flow and ideal low position? Classic frontongenesis along the trough axis, which just so happened to be overlayed perfectly for SW WA. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0111.php#picture Made up for us getting dickholed the year before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Best EPS run yet.A compromise will mean the ECMWF and EPS will be getting better with each run and the GFS and GEFS might back off a little. **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Wow. 12z Euro Op PNA tanks to -5 sigma, EPS to -4.5!!!! It's coming! Pretty hard not to see us getting blasted in that range. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runninthruda206 Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I think we’re still headed in the right direction 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Classic frontongenesis along the trough axis, which just so happened to be overlayed perfectly for SW WA. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/1998/us0111.php#picture Made up for us getting dickholed the year before.#justice4justin 1 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Let's fukkin go!!! Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 For Western Washington, even if the arctic air only makes it to SW BC, I have seen several times where a storm system coming into WA will draw the cold air south from BC to create snow. Dec. 1996 and March 2001 come to mind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Loving the darker blue 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I think this is a classic setup where the snow chances at the lowest elevations are going to go up dramatically as you go north. I would be feeling really good about this if I was Shawnigan or someone in Bellingham. Even the Puget Sound. I think PDX and the Willamette Valley are in fine shape, but this definitely is going to be a N/S setup, not backdoor which favors Oregon. Also meaning, if there is lowland snow it is going to start a day or two sooner for folks up north, so we are going to go through the forum weenie freakout from jealous PDX weenies, who will then get their own snow the next day... We also have to remember, onshore flow with -8/-9C 850mb temps is not a sure thing below 500', timing and intensity of precip would matter in that scenario. I think a plausible scenario would be a decent Puget Sound snow event, a scattered 1-2" type of event south of the Columbia River, with a better chance for widespread snow PDX - south coming with some kind of shortwave associated with a 2nd push of cold air a couple days later. Just throwing scenarios out there, but that is one that seems like could happen in this kind of setup.Yea. I’m feeling pretty good about some snow potential in the day 8-10 range up here. Probably going to be some marginal cold around that time frame with a hopefully active pattern. I’m pretty sceptical of the arctic air charging south like the gfs shows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 #justice4justin Have a feeling there'll be a downslope/dry slotting component with our upcoming snowshank redemption. Sorry east county and foothills folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Yea. I’m feeling pretty good about some snow potential in the day 8-10 range up here. Probably going to be some marginal cold around that time frame with a hopefully active pattern. I’m pretty sceptical of the arctic air charging south like the gfs shows.I think your chances are very good but I’m concerned about mine here in town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Have a feeling there'll be a downslope/dry slotting component with our upcoming snowshank redemption. Sorry east county and foothills folks The coast range snow shadow is gonna f*ck us all. Sorry everybody. My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Even better is that long range still shows a negative mean and multiple members with -3 and -4.Yeah without a doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Ukmet looks interesting as early as day 6. Though it’s hard to get detailed output for that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 I think this is a classic setup where the snow chances at the lowest elevations are going to go up dramatically as you go north. I would be feeling really good about this if I was Shawnigan or someone in Bellingham. Even the Puget Sound. I think PDX and the Willamette Valley are in fine shape, but this definitely is going to be a N/S setup, not backdoor which favors Oregon. Also meaning, if there is lowland snow it is going to start a day or two sooner for folks up north, so we are going to go through the forum weenie freakout from jealous PDX weenies, who will then get their own snow the next day... We also have to remember, onshore flow with -8/-9C 850mb temps is not a sure thing below 500', timing and intensity of precip would matter in that scenario. I think a plausible scenario would be a decent Puget Sound snow event, a scattered 1-2" type of event south of the Columbia River, with a better chance for widespread snow PDX - south coming with some kind of shortwave associated with a 2nd push of cold air a couple days later. Just throwing scenarios out there, but that is one that seems like could happen in this kind of setup. Yeah in general nothing is a slam dunk for big snow other than back door + overriding precip in the OR lowlands. The onshore stuff usually gives scattered and modest accumulations with either too much shadowing or not getting enough sustained precip to keep the temp down and actually stick. A few reasonably widespread inches of snow seem possible if you can spin up some low as the cold air spills out over the waters and have it all sink south along the coast. It just has a lot that can seem to go wrong here. I usually look to the middle of a cold spell or the transition period for some kind of event here. How often do we get a sharp arctic front here that brings the cold and the snow all in one go? Seems like basically never. It pretty much has to work as a multistep process here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Swamp Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 It may be too cold to snow. There may not be enough moisture for snow. The cold air may just spill out over the ocean off the BC coast. Things to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Ukmet looks interesting as early as day 6. Though it’s hard to get detailed output for that.Oh ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Yeah in general nothing is a slam dunk for big snow other than back door + overriding precip in the OR lowlands. The onshore stuff usually gives scattered and modest accumulations with either too much shadowing or not getting enough sustained precip to keep the temp down and actually stick. A few reasonably widespread inches of snow seem possible if you can spin up some low as the cold air spills out over the waters and have it all sink south along the coast. It just has a lot that can seem to go wrong here. I usually look to the middle of a cold spell or the transition period for some kind of event here. How often do we get a sharp arctic front here that brings the cold and the snow all in one go? Seems like basically never. It pretty much has to work as a multistep process here. 1990 and 2008. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Almost time for DJ to start reading all the National Weather Service forecast discussions within 2500 miles 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Oh ya?Looks more amplified than anything else 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Looks more amplified than anything elseBF34746A-BDEF-4041-A830-C7F866A95BD8.gif Nice low placement there if it could just hug the coast down to Cape Blanco. 1 Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jakeinthevalley Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 The coast range snow shadow is gonna f*ck us all. Sorry everybody.How will we even know? I'm counting on the PDX radar to be down during this period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Almost time for DJ to start reading all the National Weather Service forecast discussions within 2500 milesHa! I've been reading the Anchorage, Juneau, and Fairbanks AFDs for the past week. 18z GFS in 55 minutes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Looks more amplified than anything elseBF34746A-BDEF-4041-A830-C7F866A95BD8.gifThat looks real good and intriguing too with that low south of PDX. Hmmm! Definite east winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Ha! I've been reading the Anchorage, Juneau, and Fairbanks AFDs for the past week. 18z GFS in 55 minutesFunny how well we all know each other on here lol. 1 We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Funny how well we all know each other on here lol.So true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 1990 and 2008. For Dec 2008, didn't the cold air come in in the middle of the month and the big storm happened around the 21st or something? Did that low come out of the NW? My memory is kind of fuzzy on the details of that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 For Dec 2008, didn't the cold air come in in the middle of the month and the big storm happened around the 21st or something? Did that low come out of the NW? My memory is kind of fuzzy on the details of that setup. December 13th arctic front blasted southward. THEN the fun began! The 21st was the coldest day with PDX 25 F high temp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 3, 2020 Report Share Posted January 3, 2020 Arctic front arrived early at the coast! Dew points were already into the low 20’s in Astoria this morning. 2 My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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