wxmet Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Out to 72 hrs, the ECMWF has a stronger block than the GFS the PV lobe is digging further SW. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 where is that low gonna fall on sunday!!! i need to know!!!!Regardless of where the low is on Sunday it still won’t bring lowland snow, the models have been very consistent with that and temps are in the low 40s. The cold air won’t rush in until after the low passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OysterPrintout Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Probably gonna jinx it because it's still early but it looks good so far and even though it caved to the GFS on the earlier pattern I think we'd all still prefer to have the KING on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Out to 72 hrs, the ECMWF has a stronger block than the GFS the PV lobe is digging further SW. Slightly colder as well We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Not to turn the screws any further but these battle ground setups are starting to take on a bit of a 2011 look. Sleep tight everybody!!!! You're not wrong. There's still enough time for things to trend that way...or reverse again. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 I like January 1998 as an eventual realistic analog down here with some subtle differences. Probably a best case scenario for us. All just fun speculation... But you didn't say that after this morning's runs, did you? A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Out to 72 hrs, the ECMWF has a stronger block than the GFS the PV lobe is digging further SW. Yep. Stronger even than last night's spectacular EURO run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TacomaWaWx Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 35 here in Tacoma...maybe we will have our first freeze since 12/26 tonight. Tacoma WA elevation 300’ Monthly rainfall-3.56” Warm season rainfall-11.14” Max temp-88 +80 highs-2 +85 highs-2 +90 highs-0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 5 or 6 days of cold and snow to a classic transition event is a logical solution. Last February spoiled us.To be fair, last Feb did not get Arctic cold at any time, unlike what’s coming up. Eugene did not get below 24°F that entire time despite the epic foot and a half snow event there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Probably gonna jinx it because it's still early but it looks good so far and even though it caved to the GFS on the earlier pattern I think we'd all still prefer to have the KING on our side. Absolutely. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Record cold temps or warmer and snowier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 January 1998 triggers some painful childhood memories. 2 Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cloud Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Already looking colder on the Euro. Stronger block maintained into hour 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Day 4 for sure colder We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 EURO EURO EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Similar low track to the GFS for Sunday's event with a C-zone developing after the low passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 To be fair, last Feb did not get Arctic cold at any time, unlike what’s coming up. Eugene did not get below 24°F that entire time despite the epic foot and a half snow event there.*Makes sweeping statement about whole month for entire region to someone over 100 miles north of him *Uses station over 100 miles south of him to back up said statement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 GEM was not bad overall. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Already looking colder on the Euro. Stronger block maintained into hour 96.Yep ... better My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Eugene will always have 12/8/13. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 *Makes sweeping statement about whole month for entire region to someone over 100 miles north of him *Uses station over 100 miles south of him to back up said statement I find the fact that Eugene never got below 33 during their big snowstorm fascinating. Proof you don't need a perfect amount of cold air to deliver a great snow dump if you have the synoptic setup. 2 "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Finally, from the 00z GFS ensemble member snowfall vs. 18z... KBLI - 85% 4 inches or more (same), 70% 7 inches or more (+20%) KPAE - 95% 4 inches or more (+5%), 65% 7 inches or more (+45%) KPDX - 80% 4 inches or more (+10%), 55% 7 inches or more (-5%) Here's the chart for KSEA. Ends up being about a 10% increase for both groups of totals. Trends north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Trends north. Oh stop, it's fine for now. The fact that we got more members on the GFS for at least four inches is a better sign than I could have hoped for, considering there seemed to be a noticeable amount of 18z runs with very little snow for PDX. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Here comes the mother load of cold! My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Esquimalt Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Fair amount of more snow around Western WA on Monday. That’s a beauty of a convergence zone over my house Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Arctic air needs a passport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 I find the fact that Eugene never got below 33 during their big snowstorm fascinating. Proof you don't need a perfect amount of cold air to deliver a great snow dump if you have the synoptic setup. Sure, but there were definitely a few different shots of arctic air into the region last February. The details of one event at one location aside. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Sure, but there were definitely a few different shots of arctic air into the region last February. The details of one event at one location aside. Oh, of course. I was just exalting that particular snowstorm. I believe parts of N. Wa had pretty frigid air that month. "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Oh, of course. I was just exalting that particular snowstorm. I believe parts of N. Wa had pretty frigid air that month.No worries, your response was fine. I was challenging Omega’s claim that nobody saw arctic air last February, but unfortunately he has a tendency to move on as if nothing’s happened when his claims are challenged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luterra Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 I'm one of those folks who only shows up here when things get interesting... The mid-week low has completely disappeared at hr 120, will see how that progresses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmet Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 PV is further south and west and the lift associated with it along with the onshore flow looks to bring scattered snow showers regionally on the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Big differences upstream with the Euro compared to GFS/GEM. Doesn't have that low digging into ridge south of the Aleutians at day 5. A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skagit Weather Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 The cold air is just slowly trickling in on the Euro. Home Wx Station Stats (Since January 2008): Max Temp: 96.3F (2009) Min Temp: 2.0F (2008) Max Wind Gust: 45 mph (2018, 2021) Wettest Day: 2.34 (11/4/22) Avg Yearly Precip: 37" 10yr Avg Snow: 8.0" Snowfall Totals '08-09: 30" | '09-10: 0.5" | '10-11: 21" | '11-12: 9.5" | '12-13: 0.2" | '13-14: 6.2" | '14-15: 0.0" | '15-16: 0.25"| '16-17: 8.0" | '17-18: 0.9"| '18-19: 11.5" | '19-20: 11" | '20-21: 10.5" | '21-22: 21.75" | '22-23: 10.0" 2023-24: 7.0" (1/17: 3", 1/18: 1.5", 2/26: 0.5", 3/4: 2.0", Flakes: 1/11, 1/16) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Totals from 4PM Saturday through 4PM Monday... Looks like about 6-10" here. I'll live... Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Perturbed Member Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Looks really good for western WA. Going into the cold with some snow cover. Too much shadowing for PDX to get anything once it is cold enough, the standard drill for cold showery NW flow. Great for snow for places with some elevation though. I think you'll do ok k%%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 The super cold air just gets stuck at the 49th parallel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Now where is that midweek low, is the question? "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Definitely a little warmer at the surface for Puget Sound on Monday. Interestingly it is essentially the same down here. Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvssnow_spokane Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Serious lob of cold coming in off the pacific. Could spin up a nice little low of Vancouver Island with that. TONIGHT PREVIOUS My Weather Station https://tempestwx.com/station/61434 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VancouverIslandSouth Posted January 9, 2020 Report Share Posted January 9, 2020 Totals from 4PM Saturday through 4PM Monday... Looks like the timing has moved up slightly, a bit more inline with the GFS now. Also looks like Vancouver, BC and the Fraser Valley could get slammed with snow going into this. Would be nice to see the timing continue to move up, seems to correlate with the best snowfall going into this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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