Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[luvssnow_spokane]

Only good thing about Sunday is the Hawks beating the Cheeseheads!!

Which probably won't happen. Icing on the cake.

[Perturbed Member]

Grab your K-Y and get ready for the 00z Euro. 

[luvssnow_spokane]

I have a buddy in DC... works for NOAA.    Let just say that you don't want to go to bed early tonight.    

c'Mon stop messing with us. lol

[fubario]

Me and some of my fellow Rush fans are drinking tonight and pouring one out for Neil. RIP

 

Most fitting Rush lyrics for this forum, I think:

 

The clouds prepare for battle
In the dark and brooding silence
Bruised and sullen storm clouds
Have the light of day obscured
Looming low and ominous
In twilight premature
Thunderheads are rumbling
In a distant overture

 

Jacob's Ladder

[TT-SEA]

Bainbridge posted this on facebook just a couple hours ago.   I have to say this sounds way more interesting.

 

I continue to feel confident that Winter will be arriving to Western Washington in a MAJOR way in about 48 hours. Temperatures in the teens, widespread snowfall, and wind chills near zero are coming and will last through most of next week.

[Phil]

I have a buddy in DC... works for NOAA. Let just say that you don't want to go to bed early tonight.

You’re welcome.

[TT-SEA]

You’re welcome.

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Bainbridge posted this on facebook just a couple hours ago.   I have to say this sounds way more interesting.

 

I continue to feel confident that Winter will be arriving to Western Washington in a MAJOR way in about 48 hours. Temperatures in the teens, widespread snowfall, and wind chills near zero are coming and will last through most of next week.

 

That guy should spend less time in the gym and more time staying up on the models. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Euro will show massive improvement, I’m calling it now

[luvssnow_spokane]

I have a buddy in DC... works for NOAA.    Let just say that you don't want to go to bed early tonight.    

[Christensen87]

I don’t get how you already know what the 00z Euro will show if it hasn’t even started yet?

[TacomaWaWx]

Bainbridge posted this on facebook just a couple hours ago.   I have to say this sounds way more interesting.

 

I continue to feel confident that Winter will be arriving to Western Washington in a MAJOR way in about 48 hours. Temperatures in the teens, widespread snowfall, and wind chills near zero are coming and will last through most of next week.

widespread snowfall is still questionable we will have to see but mostly accurate. I think lots of people will end up doing fine. Especially up north.

[luvssnow_spokane]

I don’t get how you already know what the 00z Euro will show if it hasn’t even started yet?

Exactly he is totally screwing with us. Complete BS!!

[Omegaraptor]

Looks like a non-event. Washington County, sad as it is to say will be waiting another year for ground-covering snow. -6 PNA, trends towards -EPO, frigid air in BC, frigid polar vortex, and a strong low off the coast and we STILL can't get anything out of it. This climate is a pathetic joke.

 

Any thoughts on first 70 at PDX? First 80? First 90? 

[luvssnow_spokane]

widespread snowfall is still questionable we will have to see but mostly accurate. I think lots of people will end up doing fine. Especially up north.

People up north have always looked pretty good with the initial storm. Central sound and south sound it totally up in the air. BUT hey who knows maybe we will all have an inch!!

[Christensen87]

Exactly he is totally screwing with us. Complete BS!!

Rude.

[El_Nina]

0.47" so far today makes it 3.56" for the month.

43 degrees

[TT-SEA]

widespread snowfall is still questionable we will have to see but mostly accurate. I think lots of people will end up doing fine. Especially up north.

 

Temperatures in the teens, windchills below zero for most of the week?   

[luvssnow_spokane]

According to Tim we have phantom snow, and now we have Phantom EURO's that come out hours early, from his phantom DC friends that he has contact with (all of a sudden). #phantom2020

[TT-SEA]

Looks like a non-event. Washington County, sad as it is to say will be waiting another year for ground-covering snow. -6 PNA, trends towards -EPO, frigid air in BC, frigid polar vortex, and a strong low off the coast and we STILL can't get anything out of it. This climate is a pathetic joke.

 

Its been raining for the last 12 hours non-stop here and the ground is still covered in snow.   Seems pretty easy.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ensemble mean bottoms out about 2-3C warmer on this run. 

[Deweydog]

Sorry about the 00z’s, guys.

 

At least we didn’t have to wait for the 18z ok Sunday...

[TT-SEA]

This live cam from Skykomish would be very soothing for the snow lovers.     You should watch it for a few minutes.

 

https://youtu.be/jSSh8TWqRVE

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Its been raining for the last 12 hours non-stop here and the ground is still covered in snow.   Seems pretty easy.   

 

Cruel. 

 

I really hope tonight is some kind of low point. This is awful. I hope once more people start seeing snow in the next few days we can shake some of this disappointment. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Temperatures in the teens, windchills below zero for most of the week?

 

Should be down in the teens at night and with wind that would be pretty cold wind chill possibly. Couple days in the mid 20s and a couple around freezing. Also take into account the north sound around Bellingham it'll be that cold up there.

[TT-SEA]

Cruel. 

 

I really hope tonight is some kind of low point. This is awful. I hope once more people start seeing snow in the next few days we can shake some of this disappointment. 

 

 

12 hours of non-stop rain on top my beautiful snow is definitely cruel.  

 

[luvssnow_spokane]

This live cam from Skykomish would be very soothing for the snow lovers.     You should watch it for a few minutes.

 

https://youtu.be/jSSh8TWqRVE

ALL IT DID WAS PISS ME OFF!! BASTARD!!!!!!!!

[TT-SEA]

Should be down in the teens at night and with wind that would be pretty cold wind chill possibly. Couple days in the mid 20s and a couple around freezing. Also take into account the north sound around Bellingham it'll be that cold up there.

 

I can say that an average non-weather person would read that think Seattle will be like Winnipeg all of next week... and that does not appear to be the reality.

[El_Nina]

This live cam from Skykomish would be very soothing for the snow lovers.     You should watch it for a few minutes.

 

Odot trip check is keeping me engaged this evening

[Omegaraptor]

Another January 1950 or Dec 1968 - January 1969 is not going to happen in our lifetimes. There's a better chance that Portland will see a 115ºF high. As soon as I finish college it's off to a better climate with me.

[Weiner Warrior]

I'm blaming CLIMATE CHANGE

[Deweydog]

Another January 1950 or Dec 1968 - January 1969 is not going to happen in our lifetimes. There's a better chance that Portland will see a 115ºF high. As soon as I finish college it's off to a better climate with me.

College students are whiny.

[bainbridgekid]

Bainbridge posted this on facebook just a couple hours ago. I have to say this sounds way more interesting.

 

I continue to feel confident that Winter will be arriving to Western Washington in a MAJOR way in about 48 hours. Temperatures in the teens, widespread snowfall, and wind chills near zero are coming and will last through most of next week.

Here is the whole post for context. I'm referring to Winter lasting the week, not temperatures in the teens.

 

****FRIDAY FORECAST UPDATE*****

 

I continue to feel confident that Winter will be arriving to Western Washington in a MAJOR way in about 48 hours. Temperatures in the teens, widespread snowfall, and wind chills near zero are coming and will last through most of next week.

 

I am expecting an area of low pressure to track somewhere between Everett and Bellingham during the day on Sunday. As this low approaches, the area to the North of the low (likely Bellingham and Vancouver, BC) will see rain turn to snow as early as Sunday morning. South of the track of the low (South of Skagit County) I expect Southerly winds and temperatures in the low-mid 40's until the low moves to our East and cold air rushes South Sunday evening. We could see some places go from the mid 40's with rain to the upper 20's and snow in just a few hours.

 

Unfortunately, the main moisture associated with the storm will also be drying out as the cold rushes in. However, I believe a convergence zone will form along the arctic front near Skagit County Sunday afternoon and move down the Sound from North to South Sunday evening and into Sunday night. This is what will bring most of us our best chance for snow.

 

These types of convergence zones are NOTORIOUSLY hard to predict and almost always bring hugely varying snowfall amounts to different places. Questions I'm working on answering that will have huge impacts on snowfall amounts are:

 

1. How strong will this convergence zone be?

2. How quickly will it be moving South?

3. Will the zone stall over an area or move through fairly quickly?

4. How far South will the convergence zone make it?

5. Will there be enough instability to set off thundersnow in spots?

 

As you can see, there is still uncertainty in details, but I'm feeling fairly confident most areas between Olympia and Bellingham will see sticking snow between Sunday evening and Monday morning along with an impressively rapid freeze.

 

Models also continue to advertise highs near or below freezing all week and another larger storm around next Wednesday/Thursday which is likely to bring another round of widespread snowfall.

 

Another round of forecast models will be coming out later tonight and I'll try to post another update then!

[Dave]

It was probably my fault. I told my mom it was going to snow 2 days ago.

[GHweatherChris]

WRF is disappointing to say the least.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Another January 1950 or Dec 1968 - January 1969 is not going to happen in our lifetimes. There's a better chance that Portland will see a 115ºF high. As soon as I finish college it's off to a better climate with me.

It’s certainly extremely unlikely given our access to Arctic air continues to dwindle.

[TT-SEA]

Here is the whole post for context. I'm referring to Winter lasting the week, not temperatures in the teens.

 

 

 

I know you explained it more... but most people just read the headlines and it reads that way.    You might have to reset expectations.

 

But honestly... if the Seattle area is pounded by the c-zone and the snow stays on the ground all week then they will say you were a genius.

[Cloud]

WRF into Monday Morning. Still up to about an 1" for Seattle but it has definitely shifted South. 

 

[TacomaWaWx]

I can say that an average non-weather person would read that think Seattle will be like Winnipeg all of next week... and that does not appear to be the reality.

I can understand what you mean there. It will still likley be Seattle's coldest day in 6 years maybe even 9 years. Probably will be some snow around...a few select locations might get skunked. It will be cold though colder than we've been in a few years.

[BLI snowman]

GFS was the first big model to pick up on the proximity of the PV but the last to pick up on a more realistic idea of what that meant for us. Slowly but surely the models are converging on a solution.