Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[umadbro]

I mean there's a lot of hyperbolic doom and gloom but the 00z euro would have to take a serious step back from even the 18z to end hope here. Sure, it's not what it was but hell we'd take this normally.

Slowly going the way of February 2019.

[luvssnow_spokane]

EURO! Phantom DC man time of truth.

[Weather1011]

[Perturbed Member]

You think that is all I care about... but I have been fully invested in tracking the cold and snow event as well.    I am not going to stop tracking the long range though... I always do that.

 

I will say that I do cringe a little when people are posting ridiculous temperature and snow maps from the GFS.    We all know its not reality so why bother?    It just makes a decent reality seem really crappy in comparison.

 

I only jest of course.I really don't mind having a contrarian type around. Makes this place much more interesting. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF low position at 1 p.m. on Sunday...

 

[El_Nina]

You think that is all I care about... but I have been fully invested in tracking the cold and snow event as well. I am not going to stop tracking the long range though... I always do that.

 

I will say that I do cringe a little when people are posting ridiculous temperature and snow maps from the GFS. We all know its not reality so why bother? It just makes a decent reality seem really crappy in comparison.

You were here from the beginning posting plenty of maps from across the board weather wise. I'm not seeing it this year

[luvssnow_spokane]

Low is already WAY north... Just keeps getting worse. Make it stop... going to 100% bust at this rate!

[Timmy]

You think that is all I care about... but I have been fully invested in tracking the cold and snow event as well. I am not going to stop tracking the long range though... I always do that.

 

I will say that I do cringe a little when people are posting ridiculous temperature and snow maps from the GFS. We all know its not reality so why bother? It just makes a decent reality seem really crappy in comparison.

I vote both sides go away from using the euro ensemble control run, Jim and tim have been throwing it at each other over the last week. It seems to only show the best or worst possible outcome, neither of which ever materialize

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Today was great up here in vancouver ‍♂

 

Makes me think I should have moved to Blaine…

[TT-SEA]

The c-zone at its peak per the 00Z ECMWF... North Seattle and Everett folks rejoice!

 

What is crazy is that it shows it forming along the I-90 corridor earlier and then moving NORTH and before falling apart.

 

[wxmet]

Tracking the c-zone will have to be a real-time forecast as it develops on radar with the models bouncing around on it but the general gist is that one will form.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

00Z ECMWF low position at 1 p.m. on Sunday...

 

 

Well ain’t that a revoltin’ turn of events.

[Weather1011]

Makes me think I should have moved to Blaine…

Yeah you should have

[Cloud]

Looks a little further north and weaker through Sunday night.

Looks like a typical more common CZ setup area, tbh. One can hope it sinks south which it tends to do.

[luvssnow_spokane]

WARMER - Cold further north.    <_>

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bainbridgekid]

Jaya just Tweeted this 20 minutes ago:

 

https://twitter.com/AlbrechtJay/status/1215872135165435904

 

"My forecast of 1-4 inch snowfall in the central Puget Sound area with the arctic front, temperatures in the teens to 20s early to mid week, then 3-8 inches of snow in the Everett-Seattle area hold and are supported by the 18Z and 12Z ECMWF ensemble solutions."

[TacomaWaWx]

Tracking the c-zone will have to be a real-time forecast as it develops on radar with the models bouncing around on it but the general gist is that one will form.

I don't trust any of these runs to pin down the c-zone. Just too unpredictable. Just have to wait til Sunday night and see who gets smacked.

[TT-SEA]

You can see it move down the Sound the next few frames.

 

By 6AM Monday...

 

Run the 3-hour snowfall map loop.   That c-zone starts in central King County and moves north to Everett and parks itself and then falls apart.

[Weather1011]

WARMER - Cold further north. <_>

 

ecmwf_T850_nwus_4.png

Looks great at the Canadian border

[Phil]

Is there even an SSW on the way?

Not even remotely close.

 

That vortex a strong motherf**ker this winter. If it happens it’ll probably be in February.

[Cloud]

A TWF CZ conflicting report before it forms!

[MossMan]

You can see it move down the Sound the next few frames.

 

By 6AM Monday...

Looks okay over my house.

[MikeInEverett]

I’ll take what the Euro is showing

[Front Ranger]

Go apeshit. But we won’t have to worry about that.

There has to be a DK GIF for that.

[FroYoBro]

Nice little snow event for the central valley on the Euro. Only 30 miles south of me!

[bainbridgekid]

Run the 3-hour snowfall map loop.   That c-zone starts in central King County and moves north to Everett and parks itself and then falls apart.

I'm telling you.

 

Models always overestimate how quickly the outflow will push the c-zone South.

[TT-SEA]

A TWF CZ conflicting report before it forms!

 

 

It moves north.   There is no doubt at all.

 

Then it falls apart... but there is a general area of very light snow around the entire area through Monday morning.   The active c-zone band is where the real accumulating snow will be though.   

[GHweatherChris]

Like I have said so many times the last few days, why didn't you all hide your rugs, dumba**'!!

[Omegaraptor]

Not even remotely close.

That vortex a strong motherf**ker this winter. If it happens it’ll probably be in February.

We haven’t had a warm Feb or March since 2016 so as much as I don’t like the gambler’s fallacy we’re probably due.

[Weather1011]

Wheres snow wizard ?

[TigerWoodsLibido]

We’ve lost Jim and Rob...

[luvssnow_spokane]

Jaya just Tweeted this 20 minutes ago:

 

https://twitter.com/AlbrechtJay/status/1215872135165435904

 

"My forecast of 1-4 inch snowfall in the central Puget Sound area with the arctic front, temperatures in the teens to 20s early to mid week, then 3-8 inches of snow in the Everett-Seattle area hold and are supported by the 18Z and 12Z ECMWF ensemble solutions."

That will change after tonight.

[GHweatherChris]

We’ve lost Jim and Rob...

I already said that

[GHweatherChris]

This is like the days before models were considered better....

[Timmy]

We’ve lost Jim and rob

[Front Ranger]

For a while there the model runs were so good that you were relegated to the vagueries of D15 EPS maps. Now that the models have gone to hell you are able to go all out again. Welcome back!

Yep. He's as transparent as Michael Jackson before he died.

 

Love ya, Tim.

[Weather1011]

[GHweatherChris]

We’ve lost Jim and rob

 

Already said that.

[luvssnow_spokane]

We've lost Jim and Rob

[GHweatherChris]