Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[snow_wizard]

Freeking awesome 18z run!

[FrozenBites]

Well said. I was being a di*k. I just get carried away sometimes.

 

I will say this is probably in my top 5 for times I've been all in for greatness though. Probably a fair percentage gut feeling, but also a great alignment of signs / variables in our favor.

 

I love seeing your posts. You and Tim are the balance of this forum. Enjoyable place here. The drama goes ignored.

[snow_wizard]

Vodka cold for WA.  Looks like the 492 thickness line sags into the North Cascades.

[The Swamp]

Well said. I was being a di*k. I just get carried away sometimes.

 

I will say this is probably in my top 5 for times I've been all in for greatness though. Probably a fair percentage gut feeling, but also a great alignment of signs / variables in our favor.

Stick around Jim. It’s about to get real good up in here.

[HighlandExperience]

Vodka cold for WA. Looks like the 492 thickness line sags into the North Cascades.

Our dream January might finally happen

[Prairiedog]

Wow. 510 thickness nearing PDX, 504 near Puget Sound

 

What's sweet is that the over water trajectory is short enough here to not moderated temps much.  So far so good. 

[Deweydog]

Reminds me of some of the runs on 1-1-07. That was a fun event!?

 

MLK

[luvssnow_spokane]

Good sign for later this month, we seem to have the same turbulent melt downs usually a couple weeks before something drops.

That my friend is a statement and fact I could put my trust in. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

OMG orgasmic run!

[Gradient Keeper]

Such a tease... now we see how much the ensembles bring us back to reality. I would be super pumped if the mean temp could get to at least -8c for PDX.

[Gradient Keeper]

Such a tease... now we see how much the ensembles bring us back to reality. I would be super pumped if the mean temp could get to at least -8c for PDX.

Even -7c would be a nice step in the right direction because Yakima would be -11c or so I bet.

 

[Winterdog]

Pretty nippy. Is that -13F in KBLI?

[seattleweatherguy]

Colder runs hopefully ahead !

[Requiem]

The easterly gradient in the long-range on the 18z looks insane. Like, wow. Something straight out of early February 1996.

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the GFS will bottom out in the -15 or -16 range or so.  Maybe colder on this run.  Maybe the GFS will lead the way on this.  I'm thinking the beginning of the deep cold will end up somewhere in the Jan 8 to Jan 14 time frame.  At this point earlier in the time frame is looking a bit more likely.

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS ensemble mean is not even in the ball park at day 8.

 

[FroYoBro]

Can’t believe the GFS is staying with that cold solution.

[High Desert Mat?]

Pretty nippy. Is that -13F in KBLI?

Pffft. Only 12 in Redmond? Weak sauce.

[TT-SEA]

And still nowhere even close at day 9...

 

[Gradient Keeper]

The easterly gradient in the long-range on the 18z looks insane. Like, wow. Something straight out of early February 1996.

PDX-DLS at least -14mb would lead to major damaging east winds.

[Deweydog]

Colder runs hopefully ahead !

It’d be kind of a bummer but I’d be pretty much okay with it staying as cold and moving up in timing by around 15,000 minutes.

[Prairiedog]

I want to call it the believable range but history shows it's more now in the possible range.  Even inside 2-3 days we can get the finger.  I'll give it the believable range when all the models are all sniffing up the same tree inside 5 days.  Then I go "this really could happen now" inside 3 days.  Still feeling very gun shy.  I do want to believe.  I really do. 

[Winterdog]

18Z GFS ensemble mean is not even in the ball park at day 8.

 

You are one nasty fella.

[TT-SEA]

You are one nasty fella.

 

Really??

 

We are not supposed to look at the 18Z ensembles after that operational run?

[Gradient Keeper]

The crucial point the next 2-3 days of runs is to watch Day 4-8 on the GFS, GEM, ECMWF Op to see how they handle the offshore ridge/evolving block and Alaskan vortex.

[Cloud]

I want to call it the believable range but history shows it's more now in the possible range. Even inside 2-3 days we can get the finger. I'll give it the believable range when all the models are all sniffing up the same tree inside 5 days. Then I go "this really could happen now" inside 3 days. Still feeling very gun shy. I do want to believe. I really do.

Better to be like this than to be all in and get burn.

[High Desert Mat?]

Why is it when “the goods” could possibly be hitting our area Phil seems to always disappear? It’s like he says he wants us to get it but when it’s in the pipeline he’s gone. What are tour thoughts Phil?

[Winterdog]

You could leave us in our ignorance for a few more minutes

[TT-SEA]

GFS has been pretty remarkably consistent for the past few runs. The overall pattern progression has stayed the same, minus a couple tweaks each run, and even that system at D9/D10 has been showing to be in the same general area with the same general dynamics since the 12z run on 12/30.

 

I guess it's time to see if the consistent rule we/Tim applies to the EPS also applies to the new GFS and we should assume it will most likely be right when it locks in like this.

 

 

Could be getting close.   The operational GFS is very consistent.

 

Something has to give... because there is a HUGE difference between the GFS and every other model.

[Deweydog]

Questions for the forum:

 

1. Who have you told?

 

2. What exactly did you tell them?

 

3. How did you tell them?

 

4. How did they react?

 

5. Have you ever seen Breakin’ II: The Electric Boogaloo?

[The Swamp]

You are one nasty fella.

This Tim fella is something else. I laughed so hard my stomach muscles hurt. Hahahahaha!

[TT-SEA]

18Z GFS ensemble getting better by day 11... obviously way warmer than the operational though. 

 

[Cloud]

Questions for the forum:

 

1. Who have you told?

My dog

 

2. What exactly did you tell them?

Cold

3. How did you tell them?

While it’s staring at me

 

4. How did they react?

Keeps staring and wagging tail

 

5. Have you ever seen Breakin’ II: The Electric Boogaloo?

Maybe

 

 

[Gradient Keeper]

GFS Op quicker to kick out the Alaskan vortex than the GEFS. That has been a consistent trend.

[TT-SEA]

Knocking on the door at day 12:

 

[snow_wizard]

The crucial point the next 2-3 days of runs is to watch Day 4-8 on the GFS, GEM, ECMWF Op to see how they handle the offshore ridge/evolving block and Alaskan vortex.

 

How fast the GOA ridge merges with the above normal heights over the Arctic is going to be the key.  Hard to really favor any model with such a complicated setup.  Even if the slower models are right we should be in business during the sweet part of the month.

[Blizzard777]

Looks like the GFS will bottom out in the -15 or -16 range or so.  Maybe colder on this run.  Maybe the GFS will lead the way on this.  I'm thinking the beginning of the deep cold will end up somewhere in the Jan 8 to Jan 14 time frame.  At this point earlier in the time frame is looking a bit more likely.

I’m afraid I already added my header to my budget book in ink.  The day has been chosen.  

It will begin then 

[snow_wizard]

The 18z is blocked to the pole at the end of the run with another shot looking pretty likely.

[Deweydog]

It’d be cool to see someone start digging into the GEFS members and the deltas between the GFS op and others. My arm chair met eye sees that ridge over the Mississippi valley playing a part in how the Operational progresses as opposed to others.

The handling of the upstream block is everything. The rest of the models seem to want to keep things pretty muted as energy lingers over AK while the GFS introduces a fairly weak block emerging atop the deamplified but strong GOA ridge. To me it seems like a precarious setup to put much stock in 120 hours out let alone 200+.

[Gradient Keeper]

Block is just a bit too far west on the 18z GEFS, but is it ever close to plunging us into a heck of a blast. I wonder if the familiar eastward trend occurs as we move closer. I would say 8 times out of 10 it does.