Part I - January 2020 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[AbbyJr]

What the hell is wrong with people being cautiously optimistic?  Please explain.

 

Do you forget how many meltdowns you have had when it does not work out after you say it is a slam dunk, and it will happen? I feel like you do not remember that. Your nearly narcissistic approach that we should believe you and we should accept you word is just ridiculous!! NO ONE is trying to tell you it will not happen, as it very well could, BUT reading the tea leaves on 10 day out patterns is no freaking slam dunk. If you want to be 100% sure then go for it, but you have been wrong many, many times, as have all of us. So, let those that want to step back in a wait and see mode do so, that is NOT negative - THAT my friend is wisdom based on experience. 

 

I am feeling very good about the potential myself!

Well said. Couldn't have said it better myself. I fully agree with you. I'm cautiously optimistic and there is nothing wrong with that. Its ridiculous in my opinion that we would be expected to believe one member on this page and hop onto this historic arctic potential bandwagon when its still way in the long range and has yet to have the support of the Euro and EPS, which are said to be some of the most reliable models. I agree, there are positive signs but some people just don't want to risk the utter disappointment of things not working out and thus would rather be cautiously optimistic until we get closer to the event and gain the support of other models such as the Euro and EPS. Nothing wrong with that. 

[TT-SEA]

Good sign for later this month, we seem to have the same turbulent melt downs usually a couple weeks before something drops.

 

 

This is very true.   

[GHweatherChris]

Good sign for later this month, we seem to have the same turbulent melt downs usually a couple weeks before something drops.

As far as I can tell there is only one meltdown occuring currently.

[Dave]

I hope snow_wiz is right. It would be nice if everyone can join in the fun. It seems like some are left out every time. We are due for a spinning low that hugs the coast and goes all the way to the CA border.

 

Go ducks!

[The Swamp]

All I'm seeing ignoring the obvious good signs and harping on one run that isn't quite perfect. In the end we will all be happy and I will be proven right. People that really know me know not to doubt when I'm this sure.

Bye Felicia

[Frontal Snowsquall]

I really think I'm wasting my time on here, but I will continue to post for the sake of the few who actually think I may know what I'm talking about. I really hate this forum sometimes.

I believe in you Snow Wizard. You are one of my all time favorite posters on here. I would be very surprised if we don't get an Arctic Blast this month. We all just have to be patient. Once we can get good solid model agreement inside 10 days, then this place will have more optimism.

[Perturbed Member]

Models looking pretty good right now, digging the consistency of the GFS. I'm not sold on any kind of arctic outbreak yet but I think seeing some low land snow is more likely than not in the coming 2 weeks. 

[OysterPrintout]

This may just be me but I personally prefer to see the Euro show lowland snow within the 240 hour timeframe before I get too hyped. 

 

Hell last year it was showing Portland getting crushed up until the point 3 days before when Tim jinxed it all by betting the forum $100k that the low would go north and his kids wouldn't go to school until May only for it to go 200 miles south and smash Eugene while I ended up with a trace for that all-time historic month NOT THAT I'M STILL MAD ABOUT IT

[Front Ranger]

Pretty remarkable and encouraging how much stronger the long range blocking signal is with the GEFS compared to a couple days ago.

 

[ttt]

    

 

  
 

 

[Slushy Inch]

If you thought that the gfs runs couldn’t get any better look at the 18z at 162 hours.

[Front Ranger]

I am pretty confident we will see some cool weather and probably lowland snow this month. I think there is a pretty good chance it gets pretty snowy. Especially for my location and places north of Seattle down to sea level. I am not confident about arctic air. I think Justin may be on the right track in thinking snow at most airport locations, but no true arctic air. And considering January since 1982 that would seem a smart bet. 

 

Of course, January 1996, 1998, 2004, 2007, 2012, and 2017 all did have Arctic air (sub-freezing highs) in the lowlands.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

    

 

 

  

 

 

 

They gave it a 4 out of 5 confidence rating too.

[Timmy Supercell]

47 degrees and mostly sunny. Nice March aftern-- err, January afternoon!!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18z MAY not be as good.

[Front Ranger]

If you thought that the gfs runs couldn’t get any better look at the 18z at 162 hours.

 

Improvement and lowland snow within 7 days.

 

[Gradient Keeper]

18z GFS Day 6-7 trough considerably colder. We're not too far away from going right into modified arctic air at Day 7 now.

 

 

 

 

500mb Day 6 past 4 runs

 

 

500mb Day 7 past 4 runs

[Christensen87]

Wow, the weekend of the 11th could be REALLY interesting.

[Gradient Keeper]

18z MAY not be as good.

Maybe not. We all know that anything beyond Day 6-7 on the GFS Op is not worth taking too concretely or seriously. Onto the ensembles.

[Gradient Keeper]

I like the improvements in the short-mid range personally. Not just with the trough digging better, but the 500mb pattern overall.

[ttt]

18z GFS Day 6-7 trough considerably colder. We're not too far away from going right into modified arctic air at Day 7 now.

 

 

 

 

500mb Day 6 past 4 runs

1 1 20 18z GFS Day 6 4runs.gif

 

 

500mb Day 7 past 4 runs

1 1 20 18z GFS Day 7 4runs.gif

Solid confirmation

 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9

 

[Esquimalt]

Massive snowstorm for vic and van on this run. Wow

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I take that back this is going good places now

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

 

[TacomaWaWx]

Pretty good signs.

[Slushy Inch]

My god that’s deep

[Gradient Keeper]

Wow. 510 thickness nearing PDX, 504 near Puget Sound

 

[High Desert Mat?]

My god that’s deep

Oof. Cue the dome!!!!

[Cloud]

Been looking for trends and consistencies, this is 3 in a row now.

[Gradient Keeper]

Dang 498 thickness Omak

[Gradient Keeper]

4 out of the past 6 GFS Op runs feature very cold air Day 10+ now. I have to wonder if there's anything to this. I want to see timing moved ahead though.

[The Swamp]

Tim, If it snows next weekend, when can we expect an over running event that leads to low 40’s and rain?

 

I need to know.

[TT-SEA]

4 out of the past 6 GFS Op runs feature very cold air Day 10+ now. I have to wonder if there's anything to this. I want to see timing moved ahead though.

 

 

Yeah... hard to ignore that consistency.  

 

Hard to square that up with the ECMWF and EPS not showing any serious cold air even at day 10.

[The Swamp]

50° in the swamp, winds have died down. All the smoke and gunpowder smell from last night is gone.

[High Desert Mat?]

Tim, If it snows next weekend, when can we expect an over running event that leads to low 40’s and rain?

 

I need to know.

And I need to know when will it be dry? Especially on a weekend.

[TT-SEA]

Tim, If it snows next weekend, when can we expect an over running event that leads to low 40’s and rain?

 

I need to know.

 

 

If February is any guide... in about 6-7 weeks.

[TacomaWaWx]

Cold and lowland snow are now in the believable range at day 7. Still cautiously optimistic... looking like an active pattern either way! Not a full on split flow winter after all.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty much this.

 

Jim is well respected, deservedly so, but no one should get a free pass on this kind of behavior.

 

Well said.  I was being a di*k.  I just get carried away sometimes. 

 

I will say this is probably in my top 5 for times I've been all in for greatness though.  Probably a fair percentage gut feeling, but also a great alignment of signs / variables in our favor.

[ttt]

All signs point to a great and snowy January