Requiem Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Burned out over earlier this month. We’ll see if this one bodes well for Oregon. 1 Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Pretty nice day of model riding. Pretty much everything looks way better than 24 hours ago. The snowstorm on the 18z would be epic for the Central and South Sound as the Weatherbell maps showed 1 to 2 feet pretty generally. Even the more believable range is looking pretty darn good with two solid cold shots by day 10. Perhaps the biggest surprise of the day was the incredible improvement on the EPS. You can really see it in the teleconnection forecasts with both PNA and EPO going solidly minus. At this time it appears the possible cold pattern will be sharper than the one earlier this month as the - EPO kicks in adding more of a continental component. We also have some really great analogs showing up on the CPC. I can hardly believe it has consistently been showing Jan 26 / 27 1972! To date that is my all time favorite snowstorm. I still clearly remember that one. The EPSL had widespread 12" to 18" depths and the snow was followed by several days of clear and cold weather. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Let us hope and pray the 0z runs looks as good as today's 12z ones. The agreement between the GFS, ECMWF, GFS ensemble, and EPS was remarkable through day 10. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Pretty nice day of model riding. Pretty much everything looks way better than 24 hours ago. The snowstorm on the 18z would be epic for the Central and South Sound as the Weatherbell maps showed 1 to 2 feet pretty generally. Even the more believable range is looking pretty darn good with two solid cold shots by day 10. Perhaps the biggest surprise of the day was the incredible improvement on the EPS. You can really see it in the teleconnection forecasts with both PNA and EPO going solidly minus. At this time it appears the possible cold pattern will be sharper than the one earlier this month as the - EPO kicks in adding more of a continental component. We also have some really great analogs showing up on the CPC. I can hardly believe it has consistently been showing Jan 26 / 27 1972! To date that is my all time favorite snowstorm. I still clearly remember that one. The EPSL had widespread 12" to 18" depths and the snow was followed by several days of clear and cold weather. Excellent hopefully this sat night into sunday we can get a warning shot of an inch at least before the major action occurs mid month Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 You couldn't ask for a better MJO forecast. It is forecast to slowly meander through octants 4 and 5 over the next couple of weeks. We have been incredibly lucky getting the right ingredients during the month of February as of late. On another note...the 30 day SOI average just went positive for the first time in months today. Maybe the CFS is onto something showing a Nina developing this year. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Going on 12 hours without a new Seattle AFD. Clearly this is BIG. Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted January 30, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Excellent hopefully this sat night into sunday we can get a warning shot of an inch at least before the major action occurs mid month Most models show a little bit on Sunday. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 45 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 It's easier to say that when you live at 1,000 feet. I'm sure they wouldn't be heartbroken over missing a few inches of wet snow, but to miss something epic that gets talked about for years would be pretty rough. I'm very glad the snow I got a couple weeks ago didn't pull a Dewey and hit over MLK weekend because I would have been in San Diego. Would have been difficult to enjoy the trip down there knowing I was missing 10 inches of snow. Yeah... I can understand the issue with missing an epic event that is talked about for years. I need to support Randy and Snowmizer and hope that does not happen. Although it would be hilarious to watch the Snoqualmie Valley School district squirm as they try to schedule additional days around the 4th of July holiday. Keep closing school every time there is any snow on the roads at all. Good luck with that! Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Front Ranger Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 LOL LOL Quote A forum for the end of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 LOLLOL Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weather_fan Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Going on 12 hours without a new Seattle AFD. Clearly this is BIG. what is AFD? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Yeah... I can understand the issue with missing an epic event that is talked about for years. I need to support Randy and Snowmizer and hope that does not happen. Although it would be hilarious to watch the Snoqualmie Valley School district squirm as they try to schedule additional days around the 4th of July holiday. Keep closing school every time there is any snow on the roads at all. Good luck with that! Yes...Yes you do!! In other news it’s down to 37 degrees and clear. Of course it clears out at night so we don’t even get to see 10min of sunshine. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Low solar, teleconnections, no afd, models at 12 days out, Dewey is banned, what could go wrong?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 what is AFD?The NWS area forecast discussion. They update it 4 times a day.https://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?new&prod=XXXAFDSEW&wfo=sew Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItBurnsOregon Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Things are coming together. February is the new November. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItBurnsOregon Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Think snow Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryant Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Low solar, teleconnections, no afd, models at 12 days out, Dewey is banned, what could go wrong??How the hell did Dewey get banned?! Lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Things are coming together. February is the new November.Your conference call with your NWS source tell you this? Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Azz Fukking Dinosaurs.You are late for your NWS conference call. Kevin Martin should be part of it this time. Enjoy! Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 How the hell did Dewey get banned?! LolHe got a timeout for his normal “we need to kill Tim” post, someone reported it this time it sounded like...Probably Someone newer that doesn’t understand Matt in all of his glory. He is no longer banned but I believe he is now protesting the suspension and is refusing to come back. 4 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ItBurnsOregon Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Dame is on fire the last 4 games. Meanwhile it feels like spring here in Burns. V day is going to be epic. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Meanwhile... the GFS is coming out way warmer. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Where does itburn is the question. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Requiem Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Wow, I know it was like 200+ hours out lol but it’s dead and gone this run. Quote "Let's mosey!" --Cloud Strife ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014): (1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019. Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Where does itburn is the question.In a certain town located in the southern part of Jefferson County, OR. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Gorgeous afternoon!! 20200128_160134.jpg20200128_160137.jpgThat could pass for a summer evening out here. So green! #TimFilter Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Meanwhile... the GFS is coming out way warmer.A bit warmer, but still OK. More cold coming down around the 10th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Wow, I know it was like 200+ hours out lol but it’s dead and gone this run. Eh, it's not really that different. You just want to see general themes present themselves consistently at this stage, like offshore blocking which this run shows in abundance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 That could pass for a summer evening out here. So green! #TimFilterIts really green around here right now. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
High Desert Mat? Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Sorry guys, just don’t think anything regional is going to happen this year with it being a 2nd year Niño. We may have had a little up north or some redemption in the cascades but all I’ve even heard from the news here and the locals alike is how a winter this has been. It truly has this side of the mountains. I’m waiting for next year when we get back to normal which would be a lot better than this pathetic season so far. Ya February might produce something in two weeks, great it’s two weeks later with higher sun angles and still a 2nd year Niño ****** fest. Let’s just get some sun and warmer temps. It’s over. Bring on 20-21!!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Eh, it's not really that different. You just want to see general themes present themselves consistently at this stage, like offshore blocking which this run shows in abundance.It's much more troughy over Alaska. Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weiner Warrior Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 You are late for your NWS conference call. Kevin Martin should be part of it this time. Enjoy!I was on it earlier 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Sorry guys, just don’t think anything regional is going to happen this year with it being a 2nd year Niño. We may have had a little up north or some redemption in the cascades but all I’ve even heard from the news here and the locals alike is how a winter this has been. It truly has this side of the mountains. I’m waiting for next year when we get back to normal which would be a lot better than this pathetic season so far. Ya February might produce something in two weeks, great it’s two weeks later with higher sun angles and still a 2nd year Niño ****** fest. Let’s just get some sun and warmer temps. It’s over. Bring on 20-21!!!!I think the strong PV is the bigger problem than 2nd year Niño because it means nowhere in the midlatitudes wins. I’ll still root for cold and stormy for skiing until late Feb early March. Afterward it’s thunderstorms and heat FTW. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 It's much more troughy over Alaska.It’s over. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 It's much more troughy over Alaska. It's also not a bad looking run. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Sitting at 9.99" MTD. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 We might get lucky and the cold will keep getting delayed like on the last cold snap. DELAY DELAY DELAY!! Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 We might get lucky and the cold will keep getting delayed like on the last cold snap. DELAY DELAY DELAY!! or another bad run and it will flip back eventually Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 46/45 today. Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHweatherChris Posted January 30, 2020 Report Share Posted January 30, 2020 Its really green around here right now.Legit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.