Part II- January 2020 Obs and Discussion

[Skagit Weather]

Looks like the Portland area had a beautiful sunrise this morning.

 

Can confirm it was quite stunning up here.

 

[bainbridgekid]

Best sunset of the year driving South on I-5 to work this morning near Everett. 

 

EDIT: Sunrise. Obviously got up too early today.

[TacomaWaWx]

Best sunset of the year driving South on I-5 to work this morning near Everett.

yeah must’ve been crazy seeing the sunset in the morning.

[TacomaWaWx]

Cloudy and 42 this morning. Currently on a 9 day rainfall streak...should be 10 days here soon.

[TT-SEA]

Best sunset of the year driving South on I-5 to work this morning near Everett.

Sunrise. And I agree... it was awesome.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Got down to 46F now up to 49F. Mostly cloudy.

[MossMan]

I would post my sunrise pic but I would get comment after comment about my two (out of hundreds of healthy trees on my property) dead stick trees so I’m not bothering.

[TT-SEA]

I would post my sunrise pic but I would get comment after comment about my two (out of hundreds of healthy trees on my property) dead stick trees so I’m not bothering.

Trees do die... like people.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Trees do die... like people.

 

"The team with the most points at the end of the game wins"

 

John Madden

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF scaled WAY back on snow for King and Pierce counties for Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Precip seems to move through quite a bit faster.

[Esquimalt]

12Z ECMWF scaled WAY back on snow for King and Pierce counties for Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Precip seems to move through quite a bit faster.

Seems to be a trend on the gfs as well

[Cloud]

12Z ECMWF scaled WAY back on snow for King and Pierce counties for Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Precip seems to move through quite a bit faster.

The GFS showed the same thing

[seattleweatherguy]

12Z ECMWF scaled WAY back on snow for King and Pierce counties for Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Precip seems to move through quite a bit faster.

 

Was really only expecting a warning shot for mid month if you think of it that way you will be pleasantly surprised if there is any more than expected!

[OysterPrintout]

Boy this 500mb on the euro has some serious deja vu 

[Timmy]

Boy this 500mb on the euro has some serious deja vu

doesn’t look as nice as yesterday’s 12z

[Jesse]

Looks like the Euro flub-dubs the attempt at anything meaningfully cold in the 7-10 day range.

[HighlandExperience]

12Z ECMWF scaled WAY back on snow for King and Pierce counties for Saturday evening into Sunday morning. Precip seems to move through quite a bit faster.

Yuck. That went downhill quick

[MossMan]

Snow through 10AM Monday...

 

I’m in the blue!

[GHweatherChris]

[jakerepp]

Looks like the Euro flub-dubs the attempt at anything meaningfully cold in the 7-10 day range.

Weren't we looking out past 10 days anyways?

[bainbridgekid]

Disappointing to see how much drier Sunday/Sunday night have gotten over the last 12 hours or so.

 

I was thinking I had a pretty good chance of picking up a couple inches of CZ snow that evening, but now think I'll be pretty lucky to get more than an inch.

[SouthHillFrosty]

[Jesse]

Weren't we looking out past 10 days anyways?

I haven’t been following things too closely the last couple days, but it seems like there were signs of a decent offshore block starting to set up shop before then in earlier runs.

[jakerepp]

I haven’t been following things too closely the last couple days, but it seems like there were signs of a decent offshore block starting to set up shop before then in earlier runs.

I was thinking that, at least yesterday, we were looking at the start of something about 10 days out so maybe you're right. 

[OysterPrintout]

I was thinking that, at least yesterday, we were looking at the start of something about 10 days out so maybe you're right. 

 

I think outside of maybe a few runs we've mostly been playing the extrapolation game. Seems the window is after the 240 hour mark still. Somewhere +- 2 days from Valentines' Day.

[Phil]

SSW has been canceled.

 

No good.

 

[Jesse]

SSW has been canceled.

No good.

Only like the 3rd or 4th false call this season right?

[seattleweatherguy]

SSW has been canceled.

 

No good.

 

Delayed? Mid Feb now off the table? Winter over?

[Phil]

It’s a tough call on Mid-Feb even with a hostile stratosphere, because the coming swing in the AAM budget is real and could be one of the largest ever observed in the given time interval (both in terms of the amplitude and the duration of that derivative) so there’s room for some bottom-up amplification as mass is displaced and wavetrains get the wrench.

 

Mid-Feb isn’t like mid-Jan. Jan is peak coupling season. That’s ending as we speak.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

SSW has been canceled.

 

No good.

 

[MossMan]

It’s a tough call on Mid-Feb even with a hostile stratosphere, because the coming swing in the AAM budget is real and could be one of the largest ever observed in the given time interval (both in terms of the amplitude and the duration of that derivative) so there’s room for some bottom-up amplification as mass is displaced and wavetrains get the wrench.

 

Mid-Feb isn’t like mid-Jan. Jan is peak coupling season. That’s ending as we speak.

I will need to check with my wife about our AAM budget.

[Phil]

Then again, I ignored the strat/TPV coupling in January, and what could have been the most epic blast in many decades ended up bottled inside the stacked vortex with some minor leakage south of the border.

 

I suppose with the strat vortex stretched/bumped into Eurasia there’s a tilt present w/ potential for baroclinic instability in the structure? I think something can still happen as long as the system doesn’t trend increasingly baratropic —> stable w/ equatorward EP fluxes during that critical window.

[Phil]

So I’m spooked a little (at least on big cold potential) but I’m not throwing in the towel on that mid-Feb period yet.

[Phil]

[Skagit Weather]

It looks like it could be quite windy up in the North Interior tomorrow. If the WRF verified it would likely be the strongest storm of the season. I don't have access to the 12z Euro gust maps, but it was also predicting 50-60+ mph yesterday.

 

[AJ1013]

This just keeps getting better and better for Tucson. Starting to look like the real deal!!

[Phil]

It’s tough to forecast weeks/months in advance and target windows of opportunity even without making calls as to whether they will work out or not.

 

Sometimes the outcome is cool NW flow with the cold air stuck in Canada. Sometimes the GOA/AK ridge is too close (especially if it’s a very amplified pattern). In more complex scenarios involving nonlinear/threshold-determined princesses/dynamics, the pattern evolution itself can diverge and it can truly be a “busted forecast” with a different pattern altogether. And then, sometimes, it works out beautifully.

[umadbro]

Need more warm maps from Tim. If it ain't gonna snow, might as well get some sun. C'mon summer!!

[MossMan]

Need more warm maps from Tim. If it ain't gonna snow, might as well get some sun. C'mon summer!!

Tim said he would be too busy in meeting today to post the warm maps.

[Skagit Weather]

Awesome, thanks Looks maybe a bit weaker, but still breezy at least.

 

Here's the 12z Euro gusts for that same time.