jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Absolutely....tbh, this is turning out to be a very interesting storm. It will get very engrossing during the next couple of days. Creeping up on a decent plowable snow followed by legit cold temps (shhh! don't want 'em to notice). 15/0z GFS gets mby to 6-7" by Sunday morning. Hopefully the warmth in the middle isn't as bad as Peeps are thinking it will be. 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 GRR has put crap like that in my grid in recent winters. They need to go back to using "Light Snow" "Snow Showers" or "Flurries" like they used to do. Apparently that's too confusing or they think this hyper-reflex gen is just going to skip right to amounts so it doesn't matter. Idk but yeah, that's super lameLooks like someone pressed the wrong button. The whole cwa has no accumulation on Friday night. That’s an obvious mistake. It should say 3-5” or 2-4” expected. Bad time to send out bad info. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 CMC probably the coldest for 850's. Should be good for many on here. 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstorm83 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 CMC looks to be the last one hanging on to a good front end thump for eastern Neb. Bless it's heart. 2 Quote Snowfall in Lincoln, NE: 2017-18: 21.4" 2018-19: 55.5" 2019-20: 17.6" 2020-21: 49.4" 2021-22: 5.1" Average: 26" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Creeping up on a decent plowable snow followed by legit cold temps (shhh! don't want 'em to notice). 15/0z GFS gets mby to 6-7" by Sunday morning. Hopefully the warmth in the middle isn't as bad as Peeps are thinking it will be. I can definitely see us in the 4-8" range. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 CMC looks to be the last one hanging on to a good front end thump for eastern Neb. Bless it's heart.Sad is the day that I have to believe in the cmc. But who knows the Nam has been terrible lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Sad is the day that I have to believe in the cmc. But who knows the Nam has been terrible lately.Yep- with the event last Friday the NAM and even 3KM NAM has double digits snows for my area. Ended up with 3-4". 2 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 NW IA does very good this run of EURO. (Compared to previous runs) https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020011500&fh=96&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=sn10_acc&m=ecmwf_full 1 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 00z Euro... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 00z Euro Control/EPS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 00z Canadian... 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 I like how its comin in colder from the west 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 The 06Z GFS is coming in warmer from the S. Might be good for N.IA and S.MN etc. but it's not looking good for E.NE and I-80 on E. Like I said days ago- not liking Mby for more than 3-4"https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2020011506&fh=96&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_mw&p=snku_acc&m=gfs Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 DMX coming around to another 2-3" event for C.IA with rain on top. Not one to give in on a winter but as Randy Moss says--- "COME ON MAN". This is exactly what I thought would happen 48 hours ago. Things can change but running out of time. Riding the 850 0C line gets old. Congrats to those further N-- those East- I think you may be in line to what is going on in C.IA. The major weather story of the forecast, and in some ways theentire winter season so far, is the storm set to affect the regionfrom Friday into the weekend. Confidence has increased steadilyover the last several days regarding most aspects of this stormand its sensible effects and impacts. Overall track and timing arehigh confidence at this point, and QPF looks to be very high for astorm of this nature at this point in mid-January, with most ofour forecast area looking at half to three quarters of an inch ofliquid-equivalent precipitation over the course of the event.Precipitation will begin as snow, moving in Friday morning andfalling heavily for much of the day. Most of the area is lookingat nearly half an inch of QPF in the form of snow just during theday Friday, which will rapidly accumulate to several inches overmost or all of our forecast area. However, strong low-level warmair advection will push temperatures above freezing in southernIowa, limiting snow ratios and accumulation rates in the afternoonbut also making for sloppy travel conditions, while further northcolder temperatures will allow for higher accumulations and moresnow packing on roads and other surfaces. All in all it is fullyexpected that travel will be difficult/hazardous across prettymuch all of Iowa for much of Friday, once the snow begins in anygiven area.By late in the day Friday an elevated warm layer, pushed up by theaforementioned warm air advection, will cause precipitation-typeissues mainly in our southern and western counties initially,which are exacerbated by temperatures potentially reaching themid-30s. This will likely result in snow turning to a mixed bag ofrain/freezing rain, however, precipitation rates will be easing bythat time and any ice accumulations should be limited. Inaddition, any icing that does occur would come on top of freshlydeposited snow, greatly mitigating impacts. As we move into Fridaynight the initial swath of warm advection and heavierprecipitation will move off to the east and a relative dry slotwill surge northward across the area. Forecast soundings indicatethe distinct possibility of a period of more widespreaddrizzle/light rain with temperatures falling below freezing, soadditional light ice accumulations are forecast Friday nightthough again, impacts will be mitigated by the underlying snowcover. The above-freezing temperatures and precipitation-typeissues discussed herein are limiting factors on confidenceregarding snow amounts, especially across thesouthern/southwestern half of the service area, while confidencein snow amounts is somewhat higher further north/northeast wherethese issues are much less prominent. In any event the entireperiod from Friday through Friday night will be a mess andwidespread travel impacts are a near certainty. 3 Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 06z GFS... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Yeah I just read DMX and was about to post it. Definitely C and SW Iowa could see mixing issues. Even up here we might see a period of rain/frz rain/drz but hopefully mainly snow. I like how we get another shot of snow on the backside with strong wind. Feeling pretty good up this way overall. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 A bit more from DMX to add to what Grizzcoat posted. I like how they end the discussion: Late Friday night/early Saturday morning the surface cycloneparenting this winter storm system will finally move across Iowa,and immediately on the backside of the low pressure center we willsee a renewed surge of cold advection snow, with lower QPF buthigher ratios and no more precipitation-type uncertainties.Accompanying this second shot of lighter, but still accumulatingsnowfall, will be strong northwest winds surging into the stateand persisting right through Saturday along with continuing lightsnowfall/flurries. This will cause blowing snow issues, mostsignificantly while accumulating snow is still falling and inareas that receive the highest preceding snow amounts. Blowing anddrifting of snow could be significant across the northern half orso of Iowa and will cause continuing hazardous travel rightthrough Saturday. The system and its snowfall will finally exit central Iowa late onSaturday, though it will take some time for winds to diminishSaturday night as a tight surface pressure gradient remains inplace ahead of a large, Arctic high pressure center building infrom the northwest. This high pressure will bring the coldesttemperatures of the winter so far to all of Iowa, made even colderby the fresh snow cover and combining with the winds to send windchills plummeting to dangerous levels, especially across northernIowa, by Saturday night/Sunday. Bitter cold will then persist fora couple days, with afternoon *high* temperatures on Sunday andMonday peaking only in the single digits above zero in most areas.Temperatures will likely moderate somewhat toward the middle ofnext week, but confidence is low this far out. The good news, suchas it is, is that no precipitation is expected from the time thewinter storm exits late Saturday through at least Tuesday, soduring that time we will be dealing primarily with the cold andwith cleanup from the storm. No matter how you slice it...winteris about to arrive with a bang on Friday, for those who do notthink it already has. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 LOT's early take calling for 3-5" across the majority of the CWA... Duration and snow ratios will be keys to this and rightnow have a preliminary forecast of a couple inches southeast halfof the forecast area toward three to five in the northwest thirdor so. This falls near the model solution mean from the 00Z suiteand WPC supports this as well, but still of course a decentamount of uncertainty. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Sounding like 3-5” here, I can live with that. 3 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 06z NAM... 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 The trend over the last 24 hours are for this system to really deepen as it tracks towards the N GL's....possibly down into the 980's into the Mitt??? The back-side winds will be quite strong blowing the snow around and making it interesting for LES potential for our MI peeps. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Swails going with 5-6”. I sm guessing North of hwy 30. Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
St Paul Storm Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 MPX going 8-12” for now with gusts up to 35mph. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Money Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Looks like 4-6/5-7 here SPS looks golden 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 6z Euro through hr90 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinton Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 For KC it's looking like i over to rain. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
james1976 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Most models droppin 5-6 on me. That would be nice. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dubuque473 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 DVN just updated for 3-7” here. 1 Quote Dubuque 2007-2008 Winter 78.1" Total snowfall February Snowfall 32.5" City salt usage : 12,211 tons Days of measurable snow : 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 OAX is really odd on their forecast. :/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 If I get 4" here I'd be pretty happy with that. I'm concerned it will be more like 1-2" though. Models are all over the place around Iowa City/CR for this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bud2380 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 9z SREF plume average for CR is up to just over 4". 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FV-Mike Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Would really like to see 3-5 inches out of this. We had a similar storm last year 1/18-1/19 right before the artic air came in. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 NAM brings the SLP right through the area but keeps it mostly snow?? I'll believe it when I see it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Hmm Nam much better for E. NE. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 06z GFS... The trend over the last 24 hours are for this system to really deepen as it tracks towards the N GL's....possibly down into the 980's into the Mitt??? The back-side winds will be quite strong blowing the snow around and making it interesting for LES potential for our MI peeps. I began to see that last night, thus the date tweak seemed even more appropriate. I think the 06z GFS is an improvement for me here due to that stronger backside with a little boost from the lake. (Actually, IWX's disco yesterday mentioned significant LES acccum's probable and not likely even reflected well by globals at this range). Could be interesting if we score 2-3" of cemented stuff followed by higher-ratio snows and winds. You know I like me some drifts and Marshall's got enough open farmland around to get some good ones going. 2 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Heavy snow in my forecast for Friday night into Saturday...... There will be a Neg-Tilt as this thing approaches MI. 3 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 NAM brings the SLP right through the area but keeps it mostly snow?? I'll believe it when I see it. It may be off on the final SLP location. But, we occasionally do get these front-side dump events that work out good even with the SLP over head or even NW (see Dec 2016 storm here) 1 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 Heavy snow in my forecast for Friday night into Saturday...... There will be a Neg-Tilt as this thing approaches MI. In your grid icons or txt only at this point?? Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Niko Posted January 15, 2020 Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 NOAA:Attention then turns to the well-advertised system slated to trackthrough this weekend. The parent longwave trough will move onshoreon the west coast Thursday afternoon and track steadily eastward,reaching the Great Lakes with possibly a slight negative tilt bySaturday night. With a midlevel ridge present over the westernCaribbean and SE CONUS, plenty of Gulf moisture will be directednorthward and fed into the system. Guidance has trended toward aslower consensus with the start of precip starting late Friday. Thistiming adds confidence that SE Michigan will experience a round of heavysnow Friday night. A respectable amount ofmoisture - pwats around 0.75 inches - will ride in on a 50 to 60 ktlow level jet and could lead to good snowfall rates and non-trivialaccumulations of snow across the area on Friday night. This puts my area respectively in the 7-10inch range. 2 Quote Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area Oct 2023: 0.2" AN Nov 2023: 2.2" AN Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane! Jan 2024: 17.0" AN Feb 2024: 1.9" BN Insane! Mar 2024: 4.9" BN April 2024: Trace Season So Far: 26.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted January 15, 2020 Author Report Share Posted January 15, 2020 From DMX Precipitation will begin as snow, moving in Friday morning and falling heavily for much of the day. Haven't seen that in months! Hardly a dud in my book and would be welcomed sight for sore eyes 3 Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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