February 2020 (It's cold at the end of the run!)

[jaster220 8342]

Quick, start a thread.

 

Lol @ Lansing getting 40" by the end of the run.

 

..heard it happened back in Feb of 1611      Seriously tho, Mega-snowy months can and do happen around here. I can think of 2 or 3 that have beat that amount here and they were all in the recent past not ancient history stuff. 

[East Dubzz 1312]

lol, freal??? Hard to tell if that was "hidden sarc" or what? 

 

 

[GDR 665]

Gfs still coming in hot

[Clinton 4408]

12z EC has the storm as well.

[East Dubzz 1312]

Lock it in!

[jaster220 8342]

Lock it in!

 

(sigh)..again

[jaster220 8342]

I'd say we have Jaster start a thread......The last time Jaster started one, I received 11" outta that storm . Go ahead buddy....start one.....

 

Haha, wish it was that easy. I start thread, Niko scores Warning. Still too far out for us, and early signals don't look promising. I follow certain guidelines for thread starting and the formula borders on superstition, lol. I'm a firm believer that those closest to the cross-hairs should do the honors when the time is right, and certainly not prematurely. 

[FAR_Weather 5214]

(sigh)..again

What, don't like rain?

[jaster220 8342]

What, don't like rain?

 

Could hardly buy a freakin drop from July 4th for like (8) wks. Now it just won't quit with the 2" drenchings in mid-winter. The atmosphere is really screwed up from solar fighting warm globe era. One extreme to the other (except temps this blah week, lol). Reading through some more of those Ohio historical snowstorms of yore, and it's almost like another world or sci-fi or something. 

[jaster220 8342]

Not to deflate anticipation, but the GFS has flashed magic once already. Here's the Jan 9th eye-popper:

 

 

(very little of which actually happened around here)

 

So, any newest version of that model's eye candy run might be called into question. Just sayin'

 

[Hawkeye 4578]

Big snow event still there on the 00z GFS.

[GDR 665]

That’s three in a row better fire up a thread

[Madtown 1086]

^lol

[Tom 16870]

The early week system next week is far from a lock.  Taking a look at the EPS members, most of them have the main energy hanging back longer than the GFS Op and develop a stronger secondary wave riding up the boundary up into the OHV.  This may actually end up being another 2-wave scenario as we have seen multiple times this season.  Long ways away to iron down this potential system but at least there is something to track over the Super Bowl weekend.  

[Clinton 4408]

GFS mean shows 2 storms 4th-5th and 9th-10th both taking similar tracks.

[St Paul Storm 4028]

Decent chance at a daily record warm low temp here on Sunday. Current record is 31F. Highs on Sunday in the low 40s. I’m actually looking forward to it, regardless of how much of a dent it puts in the 8” snowpack. My gutters are frozen solid despite the roof salt I’m using. Gotta get them cleared before the temps crash again next week and things refreeze.

[Niko 7225]

Haha, wish it was that easy. I start thread, Niko scores Warning. Still too far out for us, and early signals don't look promising. I follow certain guidelines for thread starting and the formula borders on superstition, lol. I'm a firm believer that those closest to the cross-hairs should do the honors when the time is right, and certainly not prematurely. 

[Niko 7225]

Not to deflate anticipation, but the GFS has flashed magic once already. Here's the Jan 9th eye-popper:

 

20200109 18z GFS h384 SLR SN&Sleet.PNG

 

(very little of which actually happened around here)

 

So, any newest version of that model's eye candy run might be called into question. Just sayin'

 

20200128 12z GFS h384 SLR SN&Sleet.png

GO GFS...GO GFS!!!! <_>

[Niko 7225]

GFS mean shows 2 storms 4th-5th and 9th-10th both taking similar tracks.

Hopefully February n March makes up for Dec n Jan.

[jaster220 8342]

Finally below freezing and we may actually freeze things a bit overnight if the low of 22F is realized. Last night's low of 26F was an utter FAIL. Briefly hit 31F after 7am. 

 

Another low temp fail here. Never got below 30F even tho the low in my grid yesterday evening was 22F. That's 2 in a row busts on temps. 

[East Dubzz 1312]

Gone on the 06z GFS... darn, storm over! No more locking it in!

[GDR 665]

I’ll take the gfs

[Clinton 4408]

These weaker stretched out storms like the 6z GFS has have done well for me.  When they close off this year they cut and go north.

[Stacsh 901]

GFS weaker and south next week.  Still plenty of time to track.  Should be plenty of action along the front.  Sharp temp gradient as well.  

[jaster220 8342]

The early week system next week is far from a lock.  Taking a look at the EPS members, most of them have the main energy hanging back longer than the GFS Op and develop a stronger secondary wave riding up the boundary up into the OHV.  This may actually end up being another 2-wave scenario as we have seen multiple times this season.  Long ways away to iron down this potential system but at least there is something to track over the Super Bowl weekend.  

 

Guessing that'd be a better outcome for us eastward? I don't have access to those maps. A strong 1st wave looks like a miss N to my eyes

[mlgamer 504]

Hey guys, here's a couple of fun facts...

 

In the winter of 10-11, TOP received 38.6" of snow and pretty much ALL of it fell beginning in mid-Jan and later except for 0.1" in Dec.

 

In the brutal winter of 11-12, TOP received 3.1" of snow but 2.9" of it fell in Feb/Mar...a whopping 94% of the total.

 

So maybe the best still lies ahead...you just never know.

[jaster220 8342]

GFS weaker and south next week.  Still plenty of time to track.  Should be plenty of action along the front.  Sharp temp gradient as well.  

 

Almost rather have it SE at this range. Allows a little room for "warm-n-NW" like we've seen with most systems this season. 

[Niko 7225]

The weak system this coming weekend looks like nothing more than an inch or less for mby.

[Clinton 4408]

Almost rather have it SE at this range. Allows a little room for "warm-n-NW" like we've seen with most systems this season. 

12z GFS is really teasing me.  I can only hope.

[CentralNebWeather 4704]

I would take the 12Z ICON run for sure.  

[Mi_Matthew 233]

ICON 1.pngI would take the 12Z ICON run for sure.

Well that sure looks like a familiar outcome for those of us in the lower lakes. Sigh. Persistence, ride it.

[Tony 893]

Can't trust any model at this point but just looking at the history of this winter so far I can probably tell you that not much is going to come from the early week system except a miserable mix of nothing. Keep pushing the good stuff off till next or wait another 2 weeks and we'll get something is getting really old. Ready for this crap to end. 

[GDR 665]

Well it looks like GFS is really starting to poop out LOL

[Clinton 4408]

CMC is onboard with a nice storm.  Not sure it's good to be the target this early.

[Tony 893]

Well it looks like GFS is really starting to poop out LOL

Yep, nothing to see here..time to move on.

[Tom 16870]

CMC is onboard with a nice storm. Not sure it's good to be the target this early.

.

 

That run shows an example of some of the EPS members that hold back the secondary wave. IMO, this is prob a viable outcome.

[Clinton 4408]

.

 

That run shows an example of some of the EPS members that hold back the secondary wave. IMO, this is prob a viable outcome.

It also strengthened quickly after it crossed the Mississippi River and cut north, similar to how other storm behaved earlier this season.  Just further SE this time.

[snowstorm83 2024]

Well it looks like GFS is really starting to poop out LOL

 

South and a bit weaker. Looks like another MO/KS special. 

[Stacsh 901]

Well it looks like GFS is really starting to poop out LOL

 

Good that model sucks

[Northland09 116]

Decent chance at a daily record warm low temp here on Sunday. Current record is 31F. Highs on Sunday in the low 40s. I’m actually looking forward to it, regardless of how much of a dent it puts in the 8” snowpack. My gutters are frozen solid despite the roof salt I’m using. Gotta get them cleared before the temps crash again next week and things refreeze.

 

Uh, I feel ya with the gutter thing.  Salt isn't putting a dent in our roofs either.  You would think at least on the pole barn with the warmer weather it would slide right off.  But with the lack of sun to really get things going and with the amount of ice that has accumulated from snows/rains/thaws and refreezes, the husband had to get up on the roof yesterday to steam the ice off before it caused damage. Did you hear on the news this morning that this has been the cloudiest January on record so far? https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/01/28/stratus-quo-cloudiest-january-on-record-in-the-twin-cities.  Also, fun fact...a year ago, I recorded today and tomorrow's high temperatures around here being -5 and -13, and lows of -27 and -32 (actually probably colder than that because my temp gauge quit working) with windchills between -50 and -55.  Crazy how completely different winters can be from one year to the next!

[CentralNebWeather 4704]

The UKMET has a band of snow crossing Nebraska, Northern Kansas, into Iowa from hour 126 on through hour 144 and ongoing.  I'm going to start looking at this model more closely now that it is on Pivotal Weather.  It looks similar to the ICON, whereas the CMC and GFS are further south.  Fun things to look at for next Monday and Tuesday.  Colder weather looks to be a sure thing, it is where this band of snow develops that will be interesting.

[East Dubzz 1312]

Euro has the snow still as well, but it's very narrow and very quick hitting. 

[Stacsh 901]

Euro has the snow still as well, but it's very narrow and very quick hitting. 

 

Actually digs and cuts north up the Apps and hits SMI nicely.  

[Tom 16870]

12z Euro went south from previous runs with the 1st wave that comes up from the Baja and interacts with the frontal boundary draped just south of the Lower Lakes.  The secondary piece then comes out of the Rockies (CO) and tries to develop into a formidable storm later in the run as it tracks up towards OH.  Baby steps I guess.

 

 

[St Paul Storm 4028]

Uh, I feel ya with the gutter thing.  Salt isn't putting a dent in our roofs either.  You would think at least on the pole barn with the warmer weather it would slide right off.  But with the lack of sun to really get things going and with the amount of ice that has accumulated from snows/rains/thaws and refreezes, the husband had to get up on the roof yesterday to steam the ice off before it caused damage. Did you hear on the news this morning that this has been the cloudiest January on record so far? https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/01/28/stratus-quo-cloudiest-january-on-record-in-the-twin-cities.  Also, fun fact...a year ago, I recorded today and tomorrow's high temperatures around here being -5 and -13, and lows of -27 and -32 (actually probably colder than that because my temp gauge quit working) with windchills between -50 and -55.  Crazy how completely different winters can be from one year to the next!

Glad your ice issue is taken care. I hope mine doesn’t turn into a major issue. I’m headed up on the roof on Sunday. I think that inch of rain we got right before Christmas really caused the problem when it froze. I did hear about this being the cloudiest Jan on record! Looks like we’ll keep the streak going for a few more days too.

 

Wow, I forgot last years PV happened on this date. I think my low temp got down to -22F here in the urban heat island. Now we’re talking record warm minimums a year later. Crazy stuff.

[bud2380 3517]

Ukie just getting to the system.  SHowing a stripe of light snow.

 

 

 

[Beltrami Island 427]

Uh, I feel ya with the gutter thing.  Salt isn't putting a dent in our roofs either.  You would think at least on the pole barn with the warmer weather it would slide right off.  But with the lack of sun to really get things going and with the amount of ice that has accumulated from snows/rains/thaws and refreezes, the husband had to get up on the roof yesterday to steam the ice off before it caused damage. Did you hear on the news this morning that this has been the cloudiest January on record so far? https://www.mprnews.org/story/2020/01/28/stratus-quo-cloudiest-january-on-record-in-the-twin-cities.  Also, fun fact...a year ago, I recorded today and tomorrow's high temperatures around here being -5 and -13, and lows of -27 and -32 (actually probably colder than that because my temp gauge quit working) with windchills between -50 and -55.  Crazy how completely different winters can be from one year to the next!

 

 

Wow, I forgot last years PV happened on this date. I think my low temp got down to -22F here in the urban heat island. Now we’re talking record warm minimums a year later. Crazy stuff.

 

Year ago tommorow, I took off from Fargo airport at about 10am and actual temp of -33f to land in Phoenix at 66f, temp difference of 99f.  Flew back to Fargo Sunday evening and landed in a snowstorm, had to stay the night in Fargo and drive home Monday.

 

I remember thinking mid January of last year how warm and relatively little snow the winter had been up to that point.  Then the hammer dropped with crazy cold and snow for the next 8 weeks.

[GDR 665]

Wow hard to believe the gfs is on its own

[Tom 16870]

12z EPS expanded & shifted S/SE with the main snow shield and is targeting a lot of the GL's region and points just west.

[FAR_Weather 5214]

Also worth noting that Euro is way colder than the 00Z run.