August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

And the entire run...

[TT-SEA]

The 12z EPS is looking pretty warm for next weekend.  

[Timmy]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

And the entire run...

Thanks. I would definitely like to see the gfs play out.  The troughiness will be welcomed and at least there is potential for it to be more wet.

[YahRaEl]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The 12z EPS is looking pretty warm for next weekend.  

Everywhere but Western Central and Northern CA

[Cold Snap]

38 minutes ago, Phil said:

Future Idalia is gonna outperform expectations. Major hurricane landfall wouldn’t surprise me one iota.

Looks like the “I” curse is going to strike again.

[TT-SEA]

82 at SEA already at 1 p.m.

Smoke there is definitely not holding back temps.  

[BLI snowman]

44 minutes ago, Phil said:

Future Idalia is gonna outperform expectations. Major hurricane landfall wouldn’t surprise me one iota.

'I' storms are always beasts.

Edited August 26, 2023 by BLI snowman

[Meatyorologist]

Tonight may be good in the Seattle area, assuming enough lift is realized. Watching the Cascades today to see if anything gets organized, especially into the evening. NAM hints at 4-800 j/kg CAPE in the midlevels.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Hmmm I can see the plume from that Bull Run fire from south of Molalla. 

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tonight may be good in the Seattle area, assuming enough lift is realized. Watching the Cascades today to see if anything gets organized, especially into the evening. NAM hints at 4-800 j/kg CAPE in the midlevels.

Some signs of instability aloft here. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS seems more promising than previous runs.

[TacomaWx]

80 #33 this year. I think we’re going to stay below 85 today though most likely. 

[Cloud]

41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

82 at SEA already at 1 p.m.

Smoke there is definitely not holding back temps.  

Can actually smell it! 

[Meatyorologist]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Some signs of instability aloft here. 

Some accas overhead here too. Also as a side note, the smoke looks much thinner in your area. It's pretty noxious here in the city.

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Some accas overhead here too. Also as a side note, the smoke looks much thinner in your area. It's pretty noxious here in the city.

Basically nothing here... just a light haze.

[TT-SEA]

Grand slam!! 

Smoke doesn't look too bad at the game.  

[Deweydog]

@Front Ranger

[Deweydog]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Grand slam!! 

Smoke doesn't look too bad at the game.  

Looked pretty bad after the two run shot.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Deweydog said:

Looked pretty bad after the two run shot.

I was just going to mention that... firework smoke drifted right across the center field camera looking towards home plate.  

[TT-SEA]

84 at SEA and out here.  

Should end up warmer than yesterday but fall short of 90.   Days are getting shorter!  

[LowerGarfield]

Warm day here, 90F but air quality is good. Made my son take a break from xbox to play in the sun for a bit. First day is Monday, looking quite hot here. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Warm day here, 90F but air quality is good. Made my son take a break from xbox to play in the sun for a bit. First day is Monday, looking quite hot here. 

My daughter starts school on Tuesday... likely in the middle of a thunderstorm outbreak!  

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My daughter starts school on Tuesday... likely in the middle of a thunderstorm outbreak!  

I was looking at those runs and can totally imagine my spouse trying to pick up my son in a thunderstorm...pow!

[Phil]

Deja-vu all over again.

https://x.com/jeff_piotrowski/status/1695504421088551404?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[MossMan]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Pre-dawn explosion on Tuesday per the 12Z ECMWF.   

I’m in the…Whatever that dark color is! My dog is going to be pissed…Well pissing herself anyway. 

[Front Ranger]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Deja-vu all over again.

https://x.com/jeff_piotrowski/status/1695504421088551404?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

And yet Euro only has this...I know it's way better than GFS, but does it usually struggle in these situations compared to the "hurricane models"?

[Deweydog]

RIP Bob Barker

[Phil]

10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And yet Euro only has this...I know it's way better than GFS, but does it usually struggle in these situations compared to the "hurricane models"?

Well it’s also not a hurricane model, lots of small scale stuff that a global model might not pick up on.

This is the analog I’m thinking of. Nada to cat5 monster in 72hrs.

 

[YahRaEl]

37 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I’m in the…Whatever that dark color is! My dog is going to be pissed…Well pissing herself anyway. 

I'm in that color to here in Tacoma 

[Front Ranger]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

Well it’s also not a hurricane model, lots of small scale stuff that a global model might not pick up on.

This is the analog I’m thinking of. Nada to cat5 monster in 72hrs.

 

Oof, let's hope not. 

Michael became a hurricane way down by Cuba, though...which this thing looks unlikely to do. If it doesn't start to form into a hurricane until it's halfway through the gulf and moving rapidly towards the panhandle, not sure that's enough time to intensify to Cat 5.

[Meatyorologist]

The Gulf is jet fuel right now. Gonna be a lot of room for growth.

[Phil]

18z GFS  

[Requiem]

Can see what I think is the pyrocumulus from the Camp Creek Fire near Sandy.

[RentonHill]

24 minutes ago, Phil said:

18z GFS  

[TacomaWx]

83/55 so far today. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

I’m about 40 miles north of Tampa right now until Wednesday morning. On hurricane watch. Love seeing clouds explode again. It is so hot here. 

[Meatyorologist]

18z GFS essentially ends summer.

[Anti Marine Layer]

A typical sunny, late summer afternoon at University of Communist Indoctrination where the high temperatures in October average higher than the high temperatures in May. 

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

18z GFS essentially ends summer.

Get ready for the rain

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

18z GFS  

What hour?