August 2023 Weather in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Driving west on I90, I can see the anvils of the storms over the Sound right now. Some overshooting tops

That is the downside to this marine layer today... can't see what is happening above.   Snoqualmie Pass would be the best spot for that.

[LowerGarfield]

Coworker in Marysville says she's getting some loud thunder and fast flashes now. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

The line of clearing eating away at the marine layer offshore is interesting, on this satellite loop. Can’t quite remember seeing anything like that before. Could be instability from the ULL mixing out the inversion. It’s such a well-defined line though:

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_color+30

[RentonHill]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The line of clearing eating away at the marine layer offshore is interesting, on this satellite loop. Can’t quite remember seeing anything like that before. Could be instability from the ULL mixing out the inversion. It’s such a well-defined line though:

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_color+30

like watching  a time lapse of our ice caps melting

[Anti Marine Layer]

Portland has a long way to go to reach the forecast high of 81. Meanwhile California is toasty.

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

like watching  a time lapse of our ice caps melting

Kinda gives that vibe

[Deweydog]

16 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The line of clearing eating away at the marine layer offshore is interesting, on this satellite loop. Can’t quite remember seeing anything like that before. Could be instability from the ULL mixing out the inversion. It’s such a well-defined line though:

https://a.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/wxloop.cgi?vis1km_color+30

Definitely a “turning over” of the air mass. Coastal inversion has been pretty strong since the reversal on Friday.

[TT-SEA]

I feel like we often see clearing lines offshore with the marine layer clouds trapped farther inland on days like this... not much this summer but its not uncommon in general.

[Cascadia_Wx]

12z EPS looks pretty promising for this pattern change having a bit more staying power than anything we’ve really seen the past 3-4 months.

[Phishy Wx]

a 'Toasty' 90 out

be glad to get this out of here soon

 

 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS looks pretty promising for this pattern change having a bit more staying power than anything we’ve really seen the past 3-4 months.

I sure hope so. It would get mushroom season started in September. Payback for last year’s utter disaster of a season.

[iFred]

Watches up for Vancouver Island. First time I’ve ever noticed that.

[Dave]

California has shown some improvement from their drought.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12z EPS looks pretty promising for this pattern change having a bit more staying power than anything we’ve really seen the past 3-4 months.

That would sure be nice. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That would sure be nice. 

It sure would be big fella 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I was just looking at the January 20-April 20th period at SLE. We forget the last half of January was actually pretty chilly down this way. 12 of the last 13 days of the month were below normal at SLE. SLE had a 25 day stretch from February 21-March 17th where every single day was below normal and 29/31 days in March. All in all 75 of 91 days were below normal in the Jan 20 -April 20 stretch. This 91 day stretch was the 7th coldest on record at SLE for that stretch, tied with 1976, and it was the first time since 1976 we had a year that was in the top 10. 

If you look at the past 91 days, we have seen 65 days above average days by comparison. By comparison the past 91 days ranks 3rd all time behind 2021 and 2015, and just ahead of 2022. 

[TT-SEA]

Everything is going as the models showed with the action starting west of Seattle up towards Vancouver Island this afternoon and then later tonight it should explode right over the Seattle area.   Strange set up with nothing apparent on the IR satellite... it will just form in place as the ULL moves inland.

[Art_Digbee]

Got some thunder rolling across the San Juans currently 

[TT-SEA]

Obviously a really strong inversion in place today as the convection aloft has not disrupted the low level marine layer at all.  I also think smoke trapped under the inversion is enhancing the low clouds today.   Really looking forward to clean air starting tomorrow.  

[BLI snowman]

37 minutes ago, Dave said:

California has shown some improvement from their drought.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA

0% drought-free a year ago vs. 93% drought-free now.

No biggie.

[LowerGarfield]

40 minutes ago, Dave said:

California has shown some improvement from their drought.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentMap/StateDroughtMonitor.aspx?CA

That's really unusual to see most of CA in the white this late into the Summer. Between their winter/spring and the hurricane everywhere looks great. Even far northern CA whose climate is more like Oregon's isn't terrible. They were really shafted last rainy season particularly Del Norte county where the darkest shade is. The climate there is redwoods and coastal forest.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

AQI has dropped below 100. Windows open!

[Chewbacca Defense]

16 minutes ago, Art_Digbee said:

Got some thunder rolling across the San Juans currently 

Feels like the sky is starting to get a little darker to my south.  Nothing showing on radar to my south, it will be interesting to see if anything pops up.

[T-Town]

The truck had a toastastic 95 as we pulled into Bend. Phone says 92. Either way it’s warm. 
 

The smoke is not nearly as bad as when we were here last September. Hopefully we can keep that going. 

[TacomaWx]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Everything is going as the models showed with the action starting west of Seattle up towards Vancouver Island this afternoon and then later tonight it should explode right over the Seattle area.   Strange set up with nothing apparent on the IR satellite... it will just form in place as the ULL moves inland.

Today feels exactly like the evening of 9/7/19. That was a solid marine layer day like today…couldn’t see what was brewing above the layer. Then around 6pm the cloud bases started turning super dark and we just started getting big CG bolts all in rapid succession. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Today feels exactly like the evening of 9/7/19. That was a solid marine layer day like today…couldn’t see what was brewing above the layer. Then around 6pm the cloud bases started turning super dark and we just started getting big CG bolts all in rapid succession. 

Agreed... and the marine layer has no impact on the potential since its entirely driven by the upper levels and not relying on surface heating.   

[TacomaWx]

66 after a low of 62 this morning. We may just stay below 70 today. Haven’t seen any sunshine here at all this afternoon. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Agreed... and the marine layer has no impact on the potential since its entirely driven by the upper levels and not relying on surface heating.   

Yeah normally you’d think there wouldn’t be any storms without surface heating driving instability but that’s not the case today. 

[T-Town]

3 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Today feels exactly like the evening of 9/7/19. That was a solid marine layer day like today…couldn’t see what was brewing above the layer. Then around 6pm the cloud bases started turning super dark and we just started getting big CG bolts all in rapid succession. 

I missed the 2019 event because we were out of town and I’m missing this one too. Hopefully you guys get a good show and my lawn gets some water. 

[Hawksfan2008]

Really looking forward to the 18z EURO. Many of the other models are initiating storms west of the sound. NAM is more aligned with EURO. Hope it holds!

[YahRaEl]

You can see building starting in the south sound above marine layer on Sat

[YahRaEl]

1 minute ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

Really looking forward to the 18z EURO. Many of the other models are initiating storms west of the sound. NAM is more aligned with EURO. Hope it holds!

Models are not anything much to look at now it's about looking at Satellite and Radar also Observation on out now.

[TacomaWx]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

I missed the 2019 event because we were out of town and I’m missing this one too. Hopefully you guys get a good show and my lawn gets some water. 

Normally I wouldn’t be so bullish about the chance of thunderstorms. Convection can be such a fickle thing but this is an absolute classic set up for thunderstorms with heavy rain and frequent lightning.
 We may end up being just slightly west of the heaviest rain with the storms overnight…but we will make up for it during the day Tuesday and into Wednesday most likely. Plus this weekend into next week is trending wetter with additional systems. Fall is coming in. 

[Kolk1604]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Today feels exactly like the evening of 9/7/19. That was a solid marine layer day like today…couldn’t see what was brewing above the layer. Then around 6pm the cloud bases started turning super dark and we just started getting big CG bolts all in rapid succession. 

Yeah I had no idea. I just got home from work and it was the 2nd weekend of college football. It started to rain with lightning/thunder. Looked at the radar and it was blowing up. Completly unexpected... and awesome! 

My ops manager was pretty pissed that the Huskies was delayed until like 10 (we start work at 6am) 

[Hawksfan2008]

4 minutes ago, ChristheElohim said:

Models are not anything much to look at now it's about looking at Satellite and Radar also Observation on out now.

We are still hours from the main event. It is certainly still important, especially if the EURO shifts west. 

[the_convergence_zone]

9 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah normally you’d think there wouldn’t be any storms without surface heating driving instability but that’s not the case today. 

It still kind-of is surface heating over the Cascades and eastern WA, then that air is being advected over the marine layer. But yeah, this one is largely synoptically driven which means banded features and more widespread rainfall than usual. 
 

I’m missing this one, I also missed Sept 2019 and the May 2017 one. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

ENSO zone 3.4 up to +1.5C

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

Yeah I had no idea. I just got home from work and it was the 2nd weekend of college football. It started to rain with lightning/thunder. Looked at the radar and it was blowing up. Completly unexpected... and awesome! 

My ops manager was pretty pissed that the Huskies was delayed until like 10 (we start work at 6am) 

That was the first Husky game for my UW son.   Stadium was rocking and it was packed and they were winning and then the lightning hit and they were forced to leave.  The Huskies ended up losing that game after they re-started it really late with a mostly empty stadium.  And their season went downhill from there and then COVID hit and ruined the next season.    

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

ENSO zone 3.4 up to +1.5C

Tracking right there with 1972.

[Kolk1604]

7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That was the first Husky game for my UW son.   Stadium was rocking and it was packed and they were winning and then the lightning hit and they were forced to leave.  The Huskies ended up losing that game after they re-started it really late with a mostly empty stadium.  And their season went downhill from there and then COVID hit and ruined the next season.    

Yeah that season was a let down for sure. I forgot the game had started though, I was thinking it was delayed before kickoff.