2023 - 2024 Autumn & Winter Discussions

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Tom said:

The past 4-5 winters have been largely Above Normal temp wise with the exception of a few months that were extremes.  For example, FEB '21 and '22...with that being said, can you imagine stacking up 2 months of extremes for Texas??  Say, JAN-FEB...and if it goes into MAR...lookout Andie!  Could be something memorable for you guys down south.

 

And that cold Feb of '21 salvaged an otherwise abysmal season for old back yard in Marshall. Feb was a full 58% of my total. Proves (at least to me) that well BN patterns deliver the goods in SMI and well AN is usually bad news. 

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Unless the pattern really does change from the last several months, I'm not keen on much LES this year.  NW N and NNE predominant winds will provide my area with nothing but cold to mild and dry.   I need those arctic clippers with a cold W to WSW wind.    It would be nice to see the sun in the winter months though!

Yeah, it's all about wind vector with the LES. Idk if they keep any kind of score on a seasonal basis wrt LES vs synoptic. I began to keep track of that for my personal record a few years back. Over the past 5 winters the avg has been 15.6% but that ranges very widely. You had those two huge LES storms last winter. Would think it may have ranked pretty high whether officially or not. Tbh, still not sure what to expect this winter. Seems like any and all options may be on the table. 

[Niko]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, it's all about wind vector with the LES. Idk if they keep any kind of score on a seasonal basis wrt LES vs synoptic. I began to keep track of that for my personal record a few years back. Over the past 5 winters the avg has been 15.6% but that ranges very widely. You had those two huge LES storms last winter. Would think it may have ranked pretty high whether officially or not. Tbh, still not sure what to expect this winter. Seems like any and all options may be on the table. 

 

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah, it's all about wind vector with the LES. Idk if they keep any kind of score on a seasonal basis wrt LES vs synoptic. I began to keep track of that for my personal record a few years back. Over the past 5 winters the avg has been 15.6% but that ranges very widely. You had those two huge LES storms last winter. Would think it may have ranked pretty high whether officially or not. Tbh, still not sure what to expect this winter. Seems like any and all options may be on the table. 

That is exactly correct. Major swings this winter is what I am seeing. I do know that our temps will be above normal and hopefully, everything comes into play at the perfect timing to see a couple of snowstorms. Maybe take us to near average by spring. Nino winters are tough to go by and all we can do is hope for the best. Who knows, maybe Ma Nature will be kind to us and provide us w/ an above normal snowfall this winter. Dont forget, we can still get snow w AN temps as my average high in Jan is 30 or 32F and average lows in the teens. Same w February, although, averages start climbing by mid Feb.

[Hoosier]

On 10/18/2023 at 7:43 PM, jaster220 said:

DEC '05 was rockin' - but Jan 06 uggh! Dec '97 was boomin' - but then 98 hit - uggh! You got others??

05-06 was a Nina.  Dec 97 was so-so where I was... probably the standout of the month was the snow on Christmas Eve that had some of the biggest snowflakes I've ever seen... just wet snow bombs falling from the sky.  If you gave me a choice between Dec 1997 and rolling the dice, I'd probably settle for Dec 1997.  What I really want to avoid are Decembers like 2014, 2015, 2018... all Nino.  2015 did have a somewhat interesting/exciting storm but not until the 28th.

[Black Hole]

Here is an updated look at how we are doing for 500 hPa height anomalies for the month. 

Here is the model forecast to close out the month:

In terms of the final anomaly pattern, it looks like we will mostly maintain the anomaly pattern, but it'll be weaker for the ridge area in Canada and stronger for the ridge area in the SW USA. 

But we also are seeing some important changes happening. We've had pretty substantial ridging across Canada for much of the last 5 months or so, and that is finally done for now if the ensembles are to be believed. It looks like a trough on average will sit over eastern Canada. Also, notice the ridging north of Hawaii and troughing north of that. This pattern is also a change, and should raise the PDO as long as it lasts. But what caught my eye on that last image is how closely it matches the analog forecast for December I made earlier this month:

It's not perfect, but it's not bad. It also looks like more classic fall Nino forcing. 

 

 

[jaster220]

On 10/19/2023 at 9:25 PM, Niko said:

 

That is exactly correct. Major swings this winter is what I am seeing. I do know that our temps will be above normal and hopefully, everything comes into play at the perfect timing to see a couple of snowstorms. Maybe take us to near average by spring. Nino winters are tough to go by and all we can do is hope for the best. Who knows, maybe Ma Nature will be kind to us and provide us w/ an above normal snowfall this winter. Dont forget, we can still get snow w AN temps as my average high in Jan is 30 or 32F and average lows in the teens. Same w February, although, averages start climbing by mid Feb.

Can't remember the last sig Nino that treated DTW good, so I'm hoping we're due. But, I know it doesn't work like that

[jaster220]

On 10/20/2023 at 1:04 AM, Hoosier said:

05-06 was a Nina.  Dec 97 was so-so where I was... probably the standout of the month was the snow on Christmas Eve that had some of the biggest snowflakes I've ever seen... just wet snow bombs falling from the sky.  If you gave me a choice between Dec 1997 and rolling the dice, I'd probably settle for Dec 1997.  What I really want to avoid are Decembers like 2014, 2015, 2018... all Nino.  2015 did have a somewhat interesting/exciting storm but not until the 28th.

28th storm rocked SWMI and was awesome. Scared my cat as sleet was thrown against our east facing kitchen window in a loud manner. Unfortunately, I'm now in Detroit where that was a Rainer and marginal cold looses out every time. As said, 14-15 delivered GHD-2, DTW's biggest storm in 40 yrs. I'd do that again despite Dec's zilch.

[Hoosier]

27 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

28th storm rocked SWMI and was awesome. Scared my cat as sleet was thrown against our east facing kitchen window in a loud manner. Unfortunately, I'm now in Detroit where that was a Rainer and marginal cold looses out every time. As said, 14-15 delivered GHD-2, DTW's biggest storm in 40 yrs. I'd do that again despite Dec's zilch.

It's hard to say for sure, but 12/28/2015 was arguably the biggest sleet storm on record to occur in Chicago.  It's almost certainly top 3. 

I'd also suffer through Dec 2014 again to get something like the Feb 2015 storm, but kinda risky to bank on something that big obviously lol

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Can't remember the last sig Nino that treated DTW good, so I'm hoping we're due. But, I know it doesn't work like that

In trying to answer my own question, I've landed on 2009-10 as having at least delivered an avg snowfall season here in Detroit despite being a strong Nino. That was the oddball when the strongly -AO was a game changer. Here's the 21st century totals here (pretty sure this is all DTW). Some of these are pathetic low stuff. 99-00 just ugly tbh.

[Hoosier]

26 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

In trying to answer my own question, I've landed on 2009-10 as having at least delivered an avg snowfall season here in Detroit despite being a strong Nino. That was the oddball when the strongly -AO was a game changer. Here's the 21st century totals here (pretty sure this is all DTW). Some of these are pathetic low stuff. 99-00 just ugly tbh.

2009-10 had 54.2" in Chicago, which is basically 150% of average.  1925-26, which was also a strong Nino by all indications, had 52.3".  Those 2 winters are definitely the best strong Nino winters for Chicago and it shows that a strong Nino can produce decent snowfall, but of course most strong Nino winters aren't very good and some are downright clunkers. 

[OKwx2k4]

After the next 120 hours, we won't have any doubts about which continent will take the brunt if the cold this winter. What folks need to remember is that cold air doesn't move like warm air does without something to force it out.

All bets still on for hard cold this winter in my backyard. Especially Jan-Feb. 

[OKwx2k4]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

2009-10 had 54.2" in Chicago, which is basically 150% of average.  1925-26, which was also a strong Nino by all indications, had 52.3".  Those 2 winters are definitely the best strong Nino winters for Chicago and it shows that a strong Nino can produce decent snowfall, but of course most strong Nino winters aren't very good and some are downright clunkers. 

Location of forcing is as much or more of a factor than total temperature number as well. A cooperative PDO, EPO and AO are all big factors to us folks west of Appalachia.

[jaster220]

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

2009-10 had 54.2" in Chicago, which is basically 150% of average.  1925-26 was also a strong Nino by all indications, had 52.3".  Those 2 winters are definitely the best strong Nino6, which winters for Chicago and it shows that a strong Nino can produce decent snowfall, but of course most strong Nino winters aren't very good and some are downright clunkers. 

That must've been the season that stood out when I commented on that seasonal forecast video a while back. It was even bigger here in Detroit (city airport or somewhere downtown, idk tbh) with 78" or nearly double the average. All months from OCT-APR not only had snow, but AN to MAN (Feb at 28"). It was a mini 2013-14 winter for here. Would be curious as to what atmospheric drivers brought that about?? It's a major fluke/anomaly. Almost a century ago, maybe we could pull it off again, lol. On a personal note, my father turned 6 that January growing up in Detroit proper. I wonder if he'd remember that winter if he were around to ask?

[Tom]

I listened to JB's Saturday Summary and he commented on the Euro models strong indication of a weakened Polar Vortex in late NOV/DEC.  This lines up with what I was seeing fromn the UKMET/JMA modeling showing a stout High Pressure pattern over Scandinavia that is a classic scenario of what you wanna see to weaken the PV early in the season.

The CFSv2 is lock step in agreement with the rest of the globals of the High Lat block over Scandinvia...

 

[jaster220]

On 10/23/2023 at 10:17 AM, Tom said:

I listened to JB's Saturday Summary and he commented on the Euro models strong indication of a weakened Polar Vortex in late NOV/DEC.  This lines up with what I was seeing fromn the UKMET/JMA modeling showing a stout High Pressure pattern over Scandinavia that is a classic scenario of what you wanna see to weaken the PV early in the season.

The CFSv2 is lock step in agreement with the rest of the globals of the High Lat block over Scandinvia...

 

This little fella says "lookout!"

But this guy is backing the NWS call.

 

Place your bets folks

[Black Hole]

Reading posts out there on other social media sites, it's interesting to see that there are still some in the classic strong nino camp while others vigorously disagree and say this is acting like a weaker nino. I suppose time will tell, but all the evidence I see continues to support that this nino will act more like a modoki and of a moderate to borderline strong strength. I'm not sure if I should go for an official winter outlook or not, but if I did it would probably look favorable for OK winter

[OKwx2k4]

50 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Reading posts out there on other social media sites, it's interesting to see that there are still some in the classic strong nino camp while others vigorously disagree and say this is acting like a weaker nino. I suppose time will tell, but all the evidence I see continues to support that this nino will act more like a modoki and of a moderate to borderline strong strength. I'm not sure if I should go for an official winter outlook or not, but if I did it would probably look favorable for OK winter

Seeing more and more in the winter weather community, both amateur and pro, abandon the bigger Niño calls over the last few days, especially since seeing a PDO flip trying to get underway.

Among my favorites are Larry Cosgrove of WeatherAmerica and he's in my camp with a 2009-style winter with breaks. He's stated emphatically that it's not a super Niño style setup at all. I've held this since spring and it's seemed to hold up well. 

[jaster220]

On 10/24/2023 at 6:48 PM, jaster220 said:

This little fella says "lookout!"

But this guy is backing the NWS call.

 

Place your bets folks

My photos refused to show. I was at Island Lake metro park biking yesterday, and saw two wooly-bear caterpillars. The first one was solid black, the 2nd had a good sized black front end, brown middle, then a black end about 1/2 the length of the front.  

[tStacsh]

Love the middle fall season "cold" shots that give promise of a winter, but end up being nothing how winter will actually turn out.  

[Andie]

We’re not finished yet.   
Two strong rain chances. In the next 4-5 days.  

[Andie]

20 hours ago, jaster220 said:

My photos refused to show. I was at Island Lake metro park biking yesterday, and saw two wooly-bear caterpillars. The first one was solid black, the 2nd had a good sized black front end, brown middle, then a black end about 1/2 the length of the front.  

It’s looking like cold and very snowy, Jaster.    What do you think?

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Andie said:

It’s looking like cold and very snowy, Jaster.    What do you think?

For y'all down there in the southern plains I think you are correct. 09-10 good analog. Up here it is too difficult to tell. Hard to go cold and snowy with anything above a weak Nino, and the last one of those wasn't anything special tbh. Not to mention I'm in a personal BN snowfall streak of 3 winters. Just going to wait and (hopefully) get surprised. 

Edit - I erred in my statement above. Per this graphic from DTX on our winter forecast the last weak Nino in 2018-19 was a good winter, at least for mby in Marshall. You can also see they are calling for a STRONG Nino and all but one in the last 40 yrs was a roaster. Only a fluke like 09-10 or a Moderate Nino like 02-03 would derail a similar outcome. 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Love the middle fall season "cold" shots that give promise of a winter, but end up being nothing how winter will actually turn out.  

A year ago, we got all that early cold blasts so you could have LES snowstorms while I got flurries. Early cold like 2019 often means bad news for heart of winter. But then you have to look at Nov 2-3, 1966, snowstorm and you find a year when it actually was a good omen. So hard to tell what this one might turn out to be. I want to believe..

[jaster220]

DTX extended = 1st mention of flakes

The extended range models continue to advertise a surge of cold air
for early next week. A split flow mid level pattern becomes
progressive in the northern stream with a strong trough and cold
front expected during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Sub freezing
1000-850 mb thickness will likely force surface temperatures to
struggle reaching 40 by Tuesday with a few snow showers possible.

[jaster220]

Winter outlook for DTX

PowerPoint Presentation (weather.gov)

[Andie]

They’ve upgraded our rain chances over next 4 days to 60%, 80%, 80%, 50%. 
The drought pendulum has swung back.  

[Tom]

15 hours ago, jaster220 said:

DTX extended = 1st mention of flakes

The extended range models continue to advertise a surge of cold air
for early next week. A split flow mid level pattern becomes
progressive in the northern stream with a strong trough and cold
front expected during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe. Sub freezing
1000-850 mb thickness will likely force surface temperatures to
struggle reaching 40 by Tuesday with a few snow showers possible.

Its in the forecast for Halloween back in Chi!  This Autumn definitely has a good "flavor" for the upcoming Winter...my gut feeling is that you'll do pretty good this season across the MW/GL's.  

[mlgamer]

21 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Love the middle fall season "cold" shots that give promise of a winter, but end up being nothing how winter will actually turn out.  

This has crossed my mind as well. For example, the four Octobers of 2017-2020 all had early season measurable snowfall here with three of the four winters being nothing special with below normal snowfall. Only one winter (2018-2019) had above normal snowfall.

[jaster220]

On 10/27/2023 at 11:01 AM, Tom said:

Its in the forecast for Halloween back in Chi!  This Autumn definitely has a good "flavor" for the upcoming Winter...my gut feeling is that you'll do pretty good this season across the MW/GL's.  

I wanna believe your gut partner, but still not seeing it. 

Here's what I have noticed since we're wrapping up first month of the new LRC and have the 2nd major event to look at for results. 

Early moisture maps show nice 1"+ totals here like this one:

This system looks like mostly a swing-n-miss south (and the other event was even more generous and we ended up with an underwhelming 0.29")

At least so far, the storms have weakened or fallen apart coming our way instead of what early modelling portrayed. 

The bar has been set really low for me personally due to a rough streak with the moving to the new city so it wouldn't take much to improve on the last 3 seasons. This forecast actually looks "money" from where I am sitting so far:

 

[Hoosier]

On 10/26/2023 at 6:28 PM, jaster220 said:

For y'all down there in the southern plains I think you are correct. 09-10 good analog. Up here it is too difficult to tell. Hard to go cold and snowy with anything above a weak Nino, and the last one of those wasn't anything special tbh. Not to mention I'm in a personal BN snowfall streak of 3 winters. Just going to wait and (hopefully) get surprised. 

Edit - I erred in my statement above. Per this graphic from DTX on our winter forecast the last weak Nino in 2018-19 was a good winter, at least for mby in Marshall. You can also see they are calling for a STRONG Nino and all but one in the last 40 yrs was a roaster. Only a fluke like 09-10 or a Moderate Nino like 02-03 would derail a similar outcome. 

My preliminary guess for Chicago would be snowfall near to a bit below average and warmer than average temps, though currently leaning away from an all-out torch winter.  To put some numbers on it, something like 30-36" snowfall (first to last flake) and +1 to +2 temps (DJF).  I hope I'm wrong and more snow occurs, but I think the bad periods may last long enough to make that tough.

Using the post-1950 Ninos, the average snowfall in Chicago in strong Ninos is around 30".  Moderate Nino composite is a little better, but actually not that big of a difference.  

Usual caveat here that long range stuff is not really my thing, as I have much more interest in the shorter range and actual wx systems.  

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, sumweatherdude said:

Why was 2009-10 such an outlier in terms of temps for a strong Nino?  Anything we can point to?

I'd have to go back and look at specifics, but in short, that was a very blocky winter.

[gabel23]

16 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

I'd have to go back and look at specifics, but in short, that was a very blocky winter.

 

2 hours ago, sumweatherdude said:

Why was 2009-10 such an outlier in terms of temps for a strong Nino?  Anything we can point to?

Big thing I remember was the nao and ao was negative pretty much all winter. 

[Madtown]

Really not liking this winter hope I'm wrong, but for a Nino to turn decent everything else has to play ball in perfect unison. Not sure we are that fortunate this year 

[Clinton]

Here is where the precip has fallen vs average for the first 24 days of this years LRC. Great start for @hawkstwelve and @james1976

Last week

[Hoosier]

Prior to this year, there were 20 years with at least 0.1" of snow in October in Chicago.  8 out of those 20 years went on to finish with above average seasonal snow in Chicago.  The others were below average, with some being well below average.  1991-2020 average snowfall is 38.4"

Below are the October snowfall totals, and the eventual seasonal snowfall totals.  Interesting to note the low amount of La Ninas on this list.  These years were generally Nino or neutral, but some before 1950 appear to have been La Ninas.

 

1906:  2.2" , 1906-07:  31.5"

1913:  1.9", 1913-14:  28.2"

1917:  1.3", 1917-18:  64.1"

1920:  0.2", 1920-21:  9.8"

1923:  0.7", 1923-24:  27.6"

1925:  1.2", 1925-26:  52.3"

1929:  0.7", 1929-30:  58.2"

1952:  3.0", 1952-53:  23.4"

1954:  0.1", 1954-55:  32.2"

1957:  1.9", 1957-58:  20.0"

1962:  0.3", 1962-63:  42.6"

1967:  4.4", 1967-68:  28.4"

1972:  0.8", 1972-73:  32.9"

1976:  0.1", 1976-77:  54.1"

1987:  0.1", 1987-88:  42.6"

1989:  6.3", 1989-90:  33.8"

1992:  0.3", 1992-93:  46.9"

2006:  0.3", 2006-07:  35.6"

2014:  0.1", 2014-15:  50.7"

2019:  4.6", 2019-20:  34.8"

2023:  0.9", 2023-24:  ???

[westMJim]

Here is the this winters guess from John Dee. His guess follows the trend of a El Nino winter season with warmer temperatures and less snow fall.

https://johndee.com/forecasts/forecast-text/

While just a guess my guess for Grand Rapids Michigan is that there will be around 50 to 55" of snow fall and temperatures will run about 2° above average for December, January and February.

[westMJim]

Here is another link to a winter 2023/24 guess.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/

[Beltrami Island]

On 10/30/2023 at 7:03 PM, Madtown said:

Really not liking this winter hope I'm wrong, but for a Nino to turn decent everything else has to play ball in perfect unison. Not sure we are that fortunate this year 

 I agree with you...This late October early November cold usually flips to warm and dry by thanksgiving during el nino this far north.

I feel like best case scenario with el nino is a 4-6 week long northwest flow pattern over the northern plains/upper Midwest from Christmas through January that has some good clipper action. Hoping for any pattern that leads to Colorado lows cutting hard nw is fighting against nino climo.

[Black Hole]

A good read on one mets outlook for the winter:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/10gF1EktEgErvpJ_pIgmN-OTLpz0VRLRe/view

[Black Hole]

Here is what my analog method forecasted for October:

Here was the final tally. Considering I noted we needed to warm it up a bit, this wasn't so bad. The worst miss was Alaska. 

I should note the last 10 days or so diverged from the first 2/3 of the month.