September 2023 Weather in the PNW

[jcmcgaffey]

Get to spend the next few days in Spokane at a healthcare conference. Got a great spot for weather viewing but looks like nothing exciting weather-wise during my time here:(

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

Went into the office today for the first time in six months.... what a weird feeling.

Yikes, that's wild. Paternity leave or just remote workin'. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yikes, that's wild. Paternity leave or just remote workin'. 

Yea I WFH

[the_convergence_zone]

34 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

No ridgy signal on the 12Z EPS...

Plenty of ridge-y members hiding in there. But certainly more colder ones than the GEFS. One would favor the warmer GEFS based on recent performance (feels like blasphemy to even say that). 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Yea I WFH

That was rough on me with a little one. Being at the office is nice break sometimes. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

Plenty of ridge-y members hiding in there. But certainly more colder ones than the GEFS. One would favor the warmer GEFS based on recent performance (feels like blasphemy to even say that). 

Yeah I would be shocked if we didn't see a 7-10 stretch dominated by ridging in October. Fairly typical for early-mid fall, and would make sense after a couple weeks of cool/troughing. 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

That was rough on me with a little one. Being at the office is nice break sometimes. 

You worked from home with the little one at home at the same time??? That sounds impossible. My wife and I both work from home with the kid at daycare. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, the_convergence_zone said:

You worked from home with the little one at home at the same time??? That sounds impossible. My wife and I both work from home with the kid at daycare. 

Two little ones. My son was born in February 2022, and my youngest daughter was not yet in kindergarten. I have the work from home option, but rarely take it due to the 18 month old at home, daughter is now in 1st grade so she's gone during the school day. My wife only works part time, so we only have one day a week where childcare is an issue, and her parents help out most of the time which is great. But I find it hard to work from home even when my wife is home watching the kids, just because if they are there I want to engage with them. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Two little ones. My son was born in February 2022, and my youngest daughter was not yet in kindergarten. I have the work from home option, but rarely take it due to the 18 month old at home, daughter is now in 1st grade so she's gone during the school day. My wife only works part time, so we only have one day a week where childcare is an issue, and her parents help out most of the time which is great. But I find it hard to work from home even when my wife is home watching the kids, just because if they are there I want to engage with them. 

 

16 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

You worked from home with the little one at home at the same time??? That sounds impossible. My wife and I both work from home with the kid at daycare. 

Yea i completely agree with this. It's a challenge but you gotta do what you have to.

[the_convergence_zone]

Now I'm directly in the middle of the convergence zone and these little convective cells are efficient rain producers. I think my prayers for rain have been answered this week and more!!! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, SouthHillFrosty said:

 

Yea i completely agree with this. It's a challenge but you gotta do what you have to.

Exactly. It's nice to be around though, just hard to find the balance. My daughter is super chill, so when I was working from home during the pandemic when she was 3-4 years old before my son was born, it was great. 

[Tyler Mode]

Peak rain rate of 2.17" at 2:03 PM along with one rumble of thunder...was great for my 2 pm senior photoshoot lol

[Cold Snap]

Hasn’t really been windy at all here today. Up to 0.56” of rain for the day. High of 56 for the day so far.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

That is astoundingly dry. YVR is at 17.79" YTD.

Almost every event has been shadowed since June 2022

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Even with 3 inches of rain this week you can stick a shovel in the ground and find bone dry soil about 5 inches below the surface. It will eventually soak down a little more but the natural spring behind my house usually doesn't start running December. 

I planted two trees yesterday. Bone dry 1/4” down. I can’t believe how dry this place is…

[Skagit Weather]

1 hour ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Doesn't look that suspect to me, with respect to other stations west of I-5. In fact, there is a range from BLI (north) to Port Townsend (south) that all are around 5 to 10" for the year. This includes Stanwood (west of I-5), Camano Island, Sequim, Whidbey Island. Chuckanut Drive has a couple readings that are similar too (8.90" and 8.46")

Arrogant statement, given that it's literally what the data shows and your demonstrated poor understanding of PNW geography. 

1.21" today, 5.82" on the month, and still raining  

I would not rely on the hazards website as an accurate rainfall source. I can personally vouch that most of those station totals down in Skagit County are wildly inaccurate as are the ones new Fairhaven south of Bellingham. There's a station less than 2 miles east of BLI in Cordata that has picked up 13.1" on the year and that doesn't include any of the rain in the last couple days.

The Bellingham 3 SSW station near Fairhaven has picked up 13.56" on the year. Another Fairhaven station has picked up 15.31" on the year. The Ferndale stations 5 miles NW have picked up 14-15" on the year. So unless BLI is the unluckiest station in the entire area by a long shot, I would estimate it has actually picked up around 13", which would agree nicely with what @Rubus Leucodermis mentioned in their post.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 hours ago, Skagit Weather said:

BLI is still only at 9.45" on the year, although as mentioned before I think that number is pretty suspect.

I fully believe the number. 

[RentonHill]

back to the pile

[SilverFallsAndrew]

11 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

back to the pile

Tim's happy.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Arrogant statement, given that it's literally what the data shows and your demonstrated poor understanding of PNW geography. 

Zzzzzzzzzzzz

[Phil]

1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Plenty of ridge-y members hiding in there. But certainly more colder ones than the GEFS. One would favor the warmer GEFS based on recent performance (feels like blasphemy to even say that). 

EPS will probably win this one IMO. Compromise at best.

Autumn p8 RMM supports the troughier outcome (along with a few other factors).

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Tim's happy.

I don't even look at what the GFS shows beyond day 7... its pretty much meaningless.   The next run will show something totally different.  

But I seem to live rent-free in your mind.  

[Phishy Wx]

turned on the heat for the first time of the season.  was 60 inside

[TigerWoodsLibido]

64F and mostly cloudy in downtown Eugene.

[westcoastexpat]

Not sure I buy the ensemble means suggesting a warmer and drier October.

Based on MJO harmonics, I would favour a generally wet, active, troughy pattern for the west.

[Slushy Inch]

Wow a wet September! Getting hammered by pscz rain.

[Snownerd3000]

4 hours ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Plenty of ridge-y members hiding in there. But certainly more colder ones than the GEFS. One would favor the warmer GEFS based on recent performance (feels like blasphemy to even say that). 

You blastphemer 

[Front Ranger]

5 hours ago, iFred said:

Save the Tim snark for the first week of December when he is trying to tell us that the Belarusian 11z showing highs in the 80s for Seattle are in line with his Euro cloud maps.

Tim breaking out the Euro cloud maps is a sure sign his SAD is kicking in.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Tim breaking out the Euro cloud maps is a sure sign his SAD is kicking in.

I don't feel the effects of SAD until maybe February or March and only if its unusually cloudy then.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Only 64 at SLE today. Up to 2.34” of rain on the month. Not bad. Still going to end the water year below normal, but only by about 4”, so about 90% of normal, not terrible. 

[Snownerd3000]

Just 

16 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Wow a wet September! Getting hammered by pscz rain.

Why can't this intense of a storm hit when it's cold enough to snow? I'm just east of 405 from you and it's been crazy to see these squall go through. 

 

 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Just 

Why can't this intense of a storm hit when it's cold enough to snow? I'm just east of 405 from you and it's been crazy to see these squall go through. 

 

My thoughts exactly. I love convergence snow.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Just 

Why can't this intense of a storm hit when it's cold enough to snow? I'm just east of 405 from you and it's been crazy to see these squall go through. 

 

Great video!   It looked that here earlier today... just coming down in torrents.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Great video!   It looked that here earlier today... just coming down in torrents.

We got that rain as well. Going on 30 minutes of heavy rain now. I should get a rain gauge 

[MossMan]

I am at 26.75” for the year. Since installing my weather station back on February 2nd of 2019 I have averaged around 60” of annual liquid each year. I have a long ways to go to make that average this year. 

[GHweatherChris]

October is gonna torch kinda, November will start out mildish and moist, cold and snow after the 20th, lame weather after that til early January, a tease the first week of the new year, lame weather til February, mini blast after the 3rd, periods of coolish weather and moisture and then a good blast going into March, after that who knows, there is my forecast for the winter.

 

My main anal logs are late 2023/early 2024.

Edited September 28, 2023 by GHweatherChris

[Phil]

41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't feel the effects of SAD until maybe February or March and only if its unusually cloudy then.    

Interesting, SAD slams me in Oct/Nov then rapidly improves come Feb/Mar. It’s like the relative change in daylight hours is what affects me, rather than the actual amount of daylight.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Interesting, SAD slams me in Oct/Nov then rapidly improves come Feb/Mar. It’s like the relative change in daylight hours is what affects me, rather than the actual amount of daylight.

January thru March for me. The only thing that gets me through is the 16 day GFS showing the goodies!! Didn’t experience any at all in 2019!

[Phil]

38 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Just 

Why can't this intense of a storm hit when it's cold enough to snow? I'm just east of 405 from you and it's been crazy to see these squall go through. 

 

I think you need a new gutter, brother.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

Interesting, SAD slams me in Oct/Nov then rapidly improves come Feb/Mar. It’s like the relative change in daylight hours is what affects me, rather than the actual amount of daylight.

Mine goes with expectations which follows amount of daylight.    Its when the days start getting long and it's still gloomy for me.