September 2023 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

It will be over soon but here are the web cams from the bridge walk
https://www.mackinacbridge.org/fares-traffic/bridge-cam/

[chescowxman]

Off to the warmest morning low (71.1) here in East Nantmeal since July 28th which should be a nice launching pad to see if we can surpass 90 degrees for the 1st time since June 30, 2021 here in EN. If not today better chances both Tuesday and Wednesday.

Records for today High 94 (1964) / Low 44 (1987) / Rain 2.30" (1935)

[hawkstwelve]

More records broken from yesterday.

 

[OKwx2k4]

GFS showing a nice trough cutting right down the heart of the country mid-month. Going to feel like a whole other world to a lot of us after the summer we have had. 

[Madtown]

Never made it to 90 this summer, 89.6 today. Great end to the summer kids back to school tomorrow! Pizza on the pier tonight.

[Andie]

97*
39% Humidity. 
Now if it was in the high 80’s it would be perfect. 

[luminen]

On 9/3/2023 at 12:04 PM, Black Hole said:

I think I remember reading that Fiona brought a record amount of snow and lots of wind. I'd assume there is fairly good infrastructure for snow removal at least. 

Yeah snow removal is very robust here. 

Fiona (2022 September) didn't bring snow here though. Was there another Fiona that did?

[Clinton]

Today looks to be the warmest day of the week for my area.  Storms possible this afternoon. 

[Tom]

9 hours ago, Madtown said:

Never made it to 90 this summer, 89.6 today. Great end to the summer kids back to school tomorrow! Pizza on the pier tonight.

Something is telling me this will be a "Frozen Tundra" come JAN...enjoy the warmth as much as you can and prep for an early Autumn (heck, you can say it has already come up by you).

Meantime, our friends wayyy down south should really like what the models are showing.  Is this the trough that "breaks the Summer back?"  I am becoming increasingly convinced ya'll down south are going to come out of Summers grip with a nice Flip.   @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole and the Okie crew.

 

 

....just for fun, not a forecast, but some early signs of the new LRC???  Kinda looks like many of the maps @Black Holeand others have posted in our threads.  That is a classic El Nino #STJ pattern...I'm going to try and dial in on the up pattern ahead as we get towards the middle of the month and provide some clues of the new LRC.  This is about the time of year I start paying attn to Eurasia and the snow that begins to fall up in the northern lats among other variables at play.  My gut feeling is this will be an overall active and exciting season tracking storms.  

 

[westMJim]

With a official H/L 90/69 yesterday was the warmest September 4th at Grand Rapids since 1948. There was no rain fall and the sun was out 90% of the possible time. The highest wind gust of 23 MPH was out of the SW. For today the average H/L is 78/57 the record high of 92 was set in 1922 and 1954. The record low of 39 was set in 1950 and 1974. With a forecast high of 92 we could be seeing a near record high for today. The warmest minimum is also in play for today the current reading is 72 and that is the record minimum for this date. The record rain fall amount of 2.37” fell in 1917. Last year it was 71/58 and there was a trace of rain fall.

[westMJim]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

enjoy the warmth as much as you can and prep for an early Autumn (heck, you can say it has already come up by you).

It has not been cool yet here in Michigan but just to the north of GR there is already a lot of color on the trees. This is not really all that usual and things will slow down over the next month or more.  

[Tom]

ORD had "back-2-back" highs of 94F and with one more day in the 90's today, it will be an official Heat Wave...but the end is near as a CF is going to make its way through the region later tonight as storms fire up along it.  It's been 18 days and counting with ZERO precip record at ORD.  Bone dry, the grass is turning brown and the vegetation could use a good drink from mother nature.  If your yearning for Autumnal weather, its coming, Finally...after a long hot summer for many on here, it's time to pop a bottle of champaign and begin #bonfire season!

We need the rains to start coming up north and over the MW.  Why?  The Mississippi River is low and this will undoubtedly cause concern for higher food prices.  Barge prices have risen to very high levels.  Not a good combination heading into harvest season.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/freight-rates-surge-mississippi-river-222828868.html?guccounter=1

[westMJim]

 Here are the H/L for each Labor day since 2010 at Grand Rapids. 2023 90/69, 2022 71/58, 2021 76/55, 2020 77/61, 2019 80/59, 2018 83/39, 2017 81/57, 2016 86/57, 2015 85/72, 2014 81/67, 2013 73/61, 2012 89/62, 2011 65/49 and 2010 74/59. Of course the dates have range from September 1st 2014 to September 7th 2020, 2015.  

[Black Hole]

11 hours ago, luminen said:

Yeah snow removal is very robust here. 

Fiona (2022 September) didn't bring snow here though. Was there another Fiona that did?

Probably not. I just remembered some weather channel named storm up there a few years back that dropped like 30 inches in a day with a lot of wind. For some reason Fiona made me think of that but it was probably a different one.  

 

 

[chescowxman]

Most spots reached the low 90's yesterday and should get close to that same level today. Here in East Nantmeal we were oh so close 89.4 degrees!! But, will have to hope today or tomorrow to reach the elusive 90 degree mark. My rooftop station (Tempest) did reach 92.1 degrees for the 3rd time this year... but both properly sited ground stations could do not better than 89.6 (Ambient) and 89.4. (Davis VP)

Records for today: High 95 (1898) / Low 42 (1988) / Rain 3.47" (1979)

[Iceresistance]

My God

120H  10/1200Z 21.5N  63.5W  120 KT 140 MPH

[tStacsh]

92 with a DP of 71.  Last really hot day of summer it seems.  Doesn't mean we won't have warm days, but back to average after this.   

[luminen]

7 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Probably not. I just remembered some weather channel named storm up there a few years back that dropped like 30 inches in a day with a lot of wind. For some reason Fiona made me think of that but it was probably a different one.  

 

 

Hmm I haven't been here long so I didn't experience that. Sounds like a Nor'easter. 

[Black Hole]

This seems like a bit earlier than I was expecting, but model guidance does seem to be trending towards a troughy mid September. It's not just one and done, some indication of it sticking around toward the latter half of the month too. 

Th

[Black Hole]

14 minutes ago, luminen said:

Hmm I haven't been here long so I didn't experience that. Sounds like a Nor'easter. 

It might have been this one:
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/severe/this-day-in-weather-history-january-17-2020-st-johns-nl-blizzard

But that's east of you. Either way, I'll be interested to see how you do you there this year! I don't know anybody else in that part of the world. 

[luminen]

22 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

It might have been this one:
https://www.theweathernetwork.com/en/news/weather/severe/this-day-in-weather-history-january-17-2020-st-johns-nl-blizzard

But that's east of you. Either way, I'll be interested to see how you do you there this year! I don't know anybody else in that part of the world. 

Oh yeah I remember that St John's storm. Absolutely nuts.

All forecasts I've seen for New England/Atlantic Canada is snowier than normal and average temps.

[Clinton]

Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued.  Scattered strong storms along the cold front will hopefully end my 24 day dry streak.  Also as black hole showed above its possible this is the last day of nasty heat this season.  It's currently 97 with a heat index of 104.

[james1976]

Forecast high of 66 tomorrow! Yeah I'll take it. Severe Thunderstorm Watch tonight as the cold front moves through.

[hawkstwelve]

Front has moved through with a pretty stiff NW wind and a chilly feel to the air, especially when compared to the past couple weeks. Temp has quickly fallen to 66 after topping out at 87.

Loving the turn the models have taken to begin the cool/wet period quicker than previously anticipated. I'm beyond ready for some sweatshirt weather!

[Andie]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Severe thunderstorm watch has been issued.  Scattered strong storms along the cold front will hopefully end my 24 day dry streak.  Also as black hole showed above its possible this is the last day of nasty heat this season.  It's currently 97 with a heat index of 104.

Looking forward to our turn.  
This has been a long streak of heat.  
103, 104, then 106 Friday. 
Then Sat/Sun 20% chance TStorms. High of 98/99. 

[Hawkeye]

A few days ago the NWS had mid to upper 90s today.  Instead, we had some decent clouds and only reached 88º.  The heat is done after today, but the drought isn't.  There are only two patterns this summer/fall.... warm and dry, and cool and dry.

[gabel23]

2 hours ago, hawkstwelve said:

Front has moved through with a pretty stiff NW wind and a chilly feel to the air, especially when compared to the past couple weeks. Temp has quickly fallen to 66 after topping out at 87.

Loving the turn the models have taken to begin the cool/wet period quicker than previously anticipated. I'm beyond ready for some sweatshirt weather!

Had our first junior high football game today and it went from summer to fall by half! The front feels amazing and currently have my north windows open. Wife and I watching tv in living room with blankets because of the cool fall feel!

[Madtown]

Fall is here folks

[CentralNebWeather]

9 minutes ago, gabel23 said:

Had our first junior high football game today and it went from summer to fall by half! The front feels amazing and currently have my north windows open. Wife and I watching tv in living room with blankets because of the cool fall feel!

I was just going to post the same thing. I coach our 7th grade and 8th grade football teams. We played Kearney Catholic at home, won both games. North wind was howling through about 6:30, then the real front hit. Sure wish I had brought a jacket or sweatshirt. When we finished after 8 pm, it was chilly. Got home and my wife had opened all the windows and shut off the a/c for the first time in who knows how long. Low forecasted of 45 tonight. Love it. 

[Tom]

I woke up to a noisy morning but only a few drops of rain as the main storm action is JUST to my SE...ORD did get hit and broke the streak of 19 days with no rain.

 

 

 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a very warm September day. A record high and low was set at Muskegon with a high of 92 and a record low of 79. In Grand Rapids the official high yesterday was 91 and the low was a record warmest minimum of 71. There have now been 14 days this year of 90 or better. The average is 12 and this is the most since 2020 when there were 17.  There was no rain fall and the sun was out 75% of the possible time. For today the average H/L is 77/57 the record high of 97 was set in 1954 and the record low of 36 was set in 1962. The record rain fall of 1.67” fell in 1985. Last year the H/L was 76/61 and there was no rain fall.

[Tom]

Out in the Valley of the Sun, it's been one for the record books...I lived through the 2020 summer, but this year was a bit different bc the Heat turned on later in JUN and literally the whole month of JUL and then somewhat into AUG.  Just an incredibly hot summer with countless days above 110F and Excessive Heat warnings.  Autumn weather can't come soon enough, although, this past Holiday weekend wasn't to bad with temps near 100F.

 

 

[chescowxman]

We were actually a little bit "cooler" across most locations in Chester County yesterday compared to Monday with more spots falling short of the 90 degree mark. Today and tomorrow should for almost all locations (exception likely being East Nantmeal) see temps into the low 90's.

Records for today: High 96 (1900) / Low 38 (1924) / Rain 2.96" (2008)

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks we got down to 48 this morning. Thick smoke kept temps up a few degrees. This smoke will also keep temperatures a little cooler today. We opened the windows, but the smoke smell forced us to close them this morning. 

[Iceresistance]

Last night was wild, I had 60-70 mph winds, this was confirmed since I have tree damage.

 

Pictures coming in the afternoon...

[jaster220]

On 9/4/2023 at 7:40 AM, westMJim said:

It will be over soon but here are the web cams from the bridge walk
https://www.mackinacbridge.org/fares-traffic/bridge-cam/

Did you see me? I was there, walked the north side from St. Ignace. A steady breeze had the center section swaying under your feet just enough that you could see/feel it. First time I've experienced that. Weather was perfect and otherwise had a great couple days in the region.

[westMJim]

3 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Did you see me? I was there, walked the north side from St. Ignace.

I thought that was you.....LOL

[Andie]

Currently 103   Humidity 35%

We’ll squeeze another degree out of this lemon.  

[chescowxman]

Made it to 88.4 on the "official" VP station and 88.7 on my Ambient model. The roof top station did hit 90+ for the 3rd straight day...still no 90+ days here in East Nantmeal in more than 2 years! Last chance for a 90 plus day this year looks to be tomorrow....

[OKwx2k4]

On 9/5/2023 at 6:01 AM, Tom said:

Something is telling me this will be a "Frozen Tundra" come JAN...enjoy the warmth as much as you can and prep for an early Autumn (heck, you can say it has already come up by you).

Meantime, our friends wayyy down south should really like what the models are showing.  Is this the trough that "breaks the Summer back?"  I am becoming increasingly convinced ya'll down south are going to come out of Summers grip with a nice Flip.   @Andie @OKwx2k4 @Black Hole and the Okie crew.

 

 

....just for fun, not a forecast, but some early signs of the new LRC???  Kinda looks like many of the maps @Black Holeand others have posted in our threads.  That is a classic El Nino #STJ pattern...I'm going to try and dial in on the up pattern ahead as we get towards the middle of the month and provide some clues of the new LRC.  This is about the time of year I start paying attn to Eurasia and the snow that begins to fall up in the northern lats among other variables at play.  My gut feeling is this will be an overall active and exciting season tracking storms.  

 

There's stuff setting up right now that looks almost too good to be true if you love real winter and cold weather.