September 2023 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

The Northwoods of the Arrowhead of MN are getting a Taste of Autumn as Frost Advisory's are hoisted...I'm sure the leaves will begin to change, if not already.  CPC suggests AN temps in this area for Week 2...Indian Summer weather?

 

 

 

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a cool and wet day. The official H/L at Grand Rapids was 65/55. The official rain fall amount of 1.04” was the 6th wettest for any September 11th  There were 5 HDD’s the highest wind speed was 16MPH out of the SW. And there was 0% of sunshine. For today the official H/L is 76/55 the record high of 95 was set in 1952 and the record low of 37 was set in 1964. The record rain fall amount of 1.54” fell in 1896. Last year the H/L was 66/52 and there was a trace of rain fall.

Here is a fun fact the current September mean is 68.9 at both Grand Rapids and Lansing but the departure is +1.9 at Grand Rapids and +2.9 at Lansing. One reason for that is that in the past it was colder at Lansing.

[westMJim]

18 minutes ago, Tom said:

The Northwoods of the Arrowhead of MN are getting a Taste of Autumn as Frost Advisory's are hoisted...I'm sure the leaves will begin to change,

It has yet to get cold here in West Michigan, while not unusual there is a good amount of color on the trees in this area. We shall see if that slows down in the weeks ahead.

[Andie]

1 hour ago, OKwx2k4 said:

I bet that feels like a sigh of relief. Was just saying how glad I was to see that. 

Talk about relieved.  
SO happy to see this change.  

[chescowxman]

Today should be our last above normal day for the rest of the week. Sunny today but with the cold front approaching storms will develop late tonight and toward tomorrow morning. A great stretch of autumnal weather should then last through the upcoming weekend.

Records for today: High 97 (1931) / Low 38 (1917) / Rain 2.37" (1960)

[Clinton]

Warm and wet in the plains for the second half of the month?  

[jaster220]

On 9/11/2023 at 8:04 AM, westMJim said:

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 76/61 there was no rain fall and the sun was out 73% of the possible time. There was just one HDD and the highest wind was just 14 MPH out of the E. For today the average H/L is 76/55 the record high of 94 was set in 1931 and the record low of 32 was set in 1943. The highest rain fall amount of 3.21” fell in 1986. Last year the H/L was 69/61 and there was 0.31” of rain fall.

Two days of large rain totals in '86. That must have been when that major flooding happened across mid-Michigan. Cass River in Vassar was insanely high and impassible on M-15. Worst I remember seeing in The Mitt. 

[Madtown]

14 hours ago, Tom said:

The Northwoods of the Arrowhead of MN are getting a Taste of Autumn as Frost Advisory's are hoisted...I'm sure the leaves will begin to change, if not already.  CPC suggests AN temps in this area for Week 2...Indian Summer weather?

 

 

 

Colors are just starting to pop. High of 52 today....brrrr

[Black Hole]

On 9/11/2023 at 8:48 PM, OKwx2k4 said:

One truly unique thing this month is that there are an unusually high number of trees which have broken out in bright yellow splotches. 

Definitely very likely heat stress and surface drought-related from end of summer, but I haven't saw trees change this early in years. Probably 22-23 years. Can't remember which. 

I'm split on whether or not the overall foliage season will be good or bad. 

Yeah I was noticing today quite a few trees dropping leaves that were kind of unhealthy looking. I am assuming heat/drought stress as well. 

[Black Hole]

The trend for rain has gone way down Thursday so probably little to no rain at all. Our best bet for a few showers is Saturday as the front goes by. At least its still pretty reasonable. We will warm up to upper 80s by Monday or so, but overnight lows look cool still. 

[Clinton]

Some encouraging signs for rain in the plains showing up later on next week.  Both the GFS and Euro showing the pattern turning wetter. 

[westMJim]

10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Two days of large rain totals in '86. That must have been when that major flooding happened across mid-Michigan. Cass River in Vassar was insanely high and impassible on M-15. Worst I remember seeing in The Mitt. 

Yes that was when there was major flooding in lower Michigan

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 69/52 there were 4 HDD’s and a trace of rain fall. The sun was out 50% of the possible time. The highest wind speed of 23 MPH was out of the NW. For today the average H/L is now down to 75/55 the record high of 95 was set in 1939 and 1952. The record low of 35 was set in 1935. The record rain fall amount of 2.46” fell in 1962. Last year the H/L was 73/52.

The week ahead looks to be rather uneventful with highs mostly in the upper 60’s to mid 70’s and lows in the low to mid 50’s there are several small chances of showers.

[chescowxman]

Quite the thunder and lightning show last night around 1am here in East Nantmeal. Picked up 0.39" of rain. Should see cooler and much less humid conditions starting today and continuing for much of the next week. Some valley spots across the County could see temps dipping into the 40's by Friday morning. High temps may not escape get much above 70 degrees in higher spots on Thursday and Friday.

Records for today: High 96 (1952) / Low 37 (1953) / Rain 2.33 (1930)

[OKwx2k4]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Some encouraging signs for rain in the plains showing up later on next week.  Both the GFS and Euro showing the pattern turning wetter. 

Yeah. Was coming on to note, that while there are still some large HP ridges still advertised in the longer range, both major models now starting to make those very transient and as upstream responses to incoming storms.

Big, broad-scale troughs looking to roll through the eastern 2/3 of CONUS throughout the period. 

I think it is only a matter of time before these cold air masses find a continental polar source as our friends north of the border look to begin seeing their snowy season kick off in earnest. 

Also, there are a lot of flooding risks developing or already in place for some our friends in the NE states. 

[Black Hole]

23 minutes ago, OKwx2k4 said:

Yeah. Was coming on to note, that while there are still some large HP ridges still advertised in the longer range, both major models now starting to make those very transient and as upstream responses to incoming storms.

Big, broad-scale troughs looking to roll through the eastern 2/3 of CONUS throughout the period. 

I think it is only a matter of time before these cold air masses find a continental polar source as our friends north of the border look to begin seeing their snowy season kick off in earnest. 

Also, there are a lot of flooding risks developing or already in place for some our friends in the NE states. 

It's interesting how we are already seeing a tendency of models to show too much riding, and it becomes more troughy as it gets closer. Definitely seeing that with this system which looks much more impressive now than a few days ago. 

[Tom]

Septembrrrr showing up in the Northwoods.......many locations are feeling the Cold Canadian Air...

 

[Tom]

The 0z Euro says, "what warm up?"...for parts of the Upper MW/GL's next week, it looks like a transient period of a couple warm days then another trough rolls through.  I think most would welcome this type of pattern to keep things active and more on the wetter side of things.

It was a nice cool morning yet again with temps in the mid/low 50's in the urban areas while outside of the metro temps dipped into the 40's.  Autumn is here!

 

 

 

[Clinton]

12 minutes ago, Tom said:

The 0z Euro says, "what warm up?"...for parts of the Upper MW/GL's next week, it looks like a transient period of a couple warm days then another trough rolls through.  I think most would welcome this type of pattern to keep things active and more on the wetter side of things.

It was a nice cool morning yet again with temps in the mid/low 50's in the urban areas while outside of the metro temps dipped into the 40's.  Autumn is here!

 

 

 

Nice to see, I think we'll see tje cpc adjust their forecast cooler in the long range.

[Beltrami Island]

It didn't get as cold here as further south and east of me but still had patchy frost.  This phenomenon seems to happen every fall during first frost season.  Still, the Rainy River had some cool fog over it this morning.  Of course pictures don't do it justice.  Canada on the left side, MN on the right, the Baudette Bay(river) in the foreground entering into the Rainy.      

[Niko]

It was a cool morning here in SMI w temps in the 40s. Gorgeous sunny day today w/ readings hovering in the 60s most of the day. Tanite will be rather chilly w lows into the lower to mid 40s. You can actually smell the change of season.

 

Btw: I did capture a couple of trees changing color.

[Iceresistance]

@AndieBRING ON THE RAIN!

[Andie]

We’re 69* and overcast. No rain in No Tx currently. 
Tomorrow however, we have 80% chance of rain.  Things have been a little slow to come together but after this summer we’re okay with that.   

Hill Country has been getting a good deal of rain which they desperately needed.  Hopefully, it will fall slowly and there will be no flooding 

[Niko]

Holding on to near 60F so far w mostly cloudy skies. Clouds rolled on in rather quickly, so not as much sunshine as predicted. Much BN for this time of the year. Definitely jacket weather today.

 

Note: Hurricane Lee looks like will affect Atlantic Canada and parts of NNE and even Cape Cod w some powerful winds and very hvy rain.This being said, dangerous rip currents and very high surf, even beach erosion can be expected from the Carolina's all the way up to Maine coastline. Looks like the trough will help push Lee further out to sea, instead of bringing it further west and affecting some of the big cities on the EC. Further north though, some may not be so lucky.

[CentralNebWeather]

Looks it should be a bumper crop around here. Highs in the low 70’s and lows in the 40’s with dews in the 40’s is accelerating the dry down of the corn and soybean crops. I’ve heard some dry land corn is already being harvested. Crops that were irrigated might begin for some next weekend. My relatives will start later next week it appears. 

[james1976]

Outside enjoying an awesome campfire. Already down to 49 here on the north side of the TC. My weather station had a daily low of 40 and 67 for a high. What a change this has been from the recent extreme heat! Keep the fall weather coming! Talking with coworkers and neighbors....they are all happy with the cooler weather. 

[Tom]

Locally, it's the coolest morning of the season as temps have dipped into the upper 40's.  ORD is still in the mid 50's (55F) due to all the concrete and buildings.  Perfect radiational cooling underneath clear skies, calm winds and HP overhead.

 

 

After this cool week/weekend, I see some upper 70's/low 80's next week showing up which I don't mind at all.  So far, it's been a perfect SEP in my book.

[westMJim]

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 65/48, there was no rain fall. The sun was out 46% of the possible time. There were 8 HDD’s There was not much wind with the highest wind speed of just 12MPH out of the N. For today the average H/L is now down to 75/54. The record high of 95 was in 1939 the record low of 31 was way back in 1899. The record rain fall of 2.15” fell in 1993. Last year the H/L was 78/53. The week ahead looks to start off on the cool side with a good warm up by mid week. At he current time it is 44 with clear skies here in MBY.

[Andie]

Sept. 11 was the 61st anniversary of Hurricane Carla.  Carla hit Texas and tracked along the Trinity River into Ft Worth northward.  

Carla’s winds would have placed her as the Gulf’s other Cat 5.  

https://www.click2houston.com/weather/2021/09/10/remembering-sixty-years-ago-hurricane-carla/

 

[Hawkeye]

The latest EPS mean qpf is beautiful... a much-needed pattern.

[luminen]

18 hours ago, Niko said:

Holding on to near 60F so far w mostly cloudy skies. Clouds rolled on in rather quickly, so not as much sunshine as predicted. Much BN for this time of the year. Definitely jacket weather today.

 

Note: Hurricane Lee looks like will affect Atlantic Canada and parts of NNE and even Cape Cod w some powerful winds and very hvy rain.This being said, dangerous rip currents and very high surf, even beach erosion can be expected from the Carolina's all the way up to Maine coastline. Looks like the trough will help push Lee further out to sea, instead of bringing it further west and affecting some of the big cities on the EC. Further north though, some may not be so lucky.

Thankfully it doesn't look as strong as Fiona (2022) or Dorian (2019) which I both experienced here. Looks like a good storm for minimal damage, although the power might still go out here. 

[chescowxman]

Many spots reached the 50's this morning. Normal highs and lows for mid-September range from highs in the mid-70's to lows in the mid-50's. We should see temps over much of the next week average a little below those levels and with no rain in sight. A beautiful stretch of weather in our future!

Records for today: High 92 (1915) / Low 36 (1975) / Rain 3.53" (1966)

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, Tom said:

Locally, it's the coolest morning of the season as temps have dipped into the upper 40's.  ORD is still in the mid 50's (55F) due to all the concrete and buildings.  Perfect radiational cooling underneath clear skies, calm winds and HP overhead.

 

 

After this cool week/weekend, I see some upper 70's/low 80's next week showing up which I don't mind at all.  So far, it's been a perfect SEP in my book.

It was a see your breath morning even here under the UHI umbrella of Wayne Cnty. Had 45F on the car dash. Surprised Cook/ORD stayed that warm tbh. Lk Michigan shadow?

[Clinton]

Nearly perfect weekend coming up.  The family and I will do a little camping in the Ozarks, looks like good weather for a campfire. 

[Clinton]

It's been long time since I've seen the Euro light up like this.  Hopefully it's signs of a pattern change ahead.

[Tom]

9 hours ago, jaster220 said:

It was a see your breath morning even here under the UHI umbrella of Wayne Cnty. Had 45F on the car dash. Surprised Cook/ORD stayed that warm tbh. Lk Michigan shadow?

It was just the UHI effect around Cook county, esp ORD that is basically concrete which held up temps.  Now, if you go a couple miles away where its more wooded and grassier, temps were 5-10 degrees colder.  MBY is a couple miles away and I was in the upper 40's.

[westMJim]

Yesterday was a pleasant mid-September day with an official H/L of 71/46. There was no rain fall and the sun was out 82% of the possible time. The highest wind speed was just 10 MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is now down to 74/53. The record high of 97 was set in 1939 and the record low of 36 was set in 1953. The record rain fall amount of 1.32” fell in 1901. Last year the H/L was 77/54. At the current time it is clear and 46 here in MBY

Today should be sunny before becoming cloudy over the weekend. There is around a 50% chance of showers on Saturday night and into Sunday. Highs will be in the low 70’s today and tomorrow before dropping into the 60’s for Sunday and Monday. It could warm up to near 80 by Wednesday of next week. Lows will range from the mid 40’s to the upper 50’s

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

It's been long time since I've seen the Euro light up like this.  Hopefully it's signs of a pattern change ahead.

I am so glad to see these storms dropping into the Rockies as we are going to see the last leg of the 2022-23 LRC.  The troughs tracking into the intermountain west and Cali next week are part of that old pattern, however, you can start to see how the immense blocking over Canada/NE PAC/AK start to influence the Week 2 pattern.  Signs of the new LRC are showing up in the high lats just as the sun sets over the North Pole around the Autumn Equinox. 

I'm diggin' what the Euro/EPS is showing....Choo-Choo storm parade!  The flip in the NW NAMER/NE PAC region is catching my eye as it appears it will be an influencing factor for the upcoming cold season.

 

0z Euro...I'm sure there will be no complaints about this...early snows coming to the west and the central CONUS will be blessed!

[Tom]

As I was saying above, it ain't a coincidence that I see the CFSv2 mirroring the precip maps above for OCT.  Coincidence?  I think not my friends...gotta tell ya, I'm starting to get really intrigued about what nature could be delivering for our Sub.

 

 

How about that NW NAMER blocking???  The Location of the Aleutian Low "handing off" a trough into the SW is a beautiful signal...kinda mirrors what last nights 0z Euro 500mb maps were showing above, right??

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies from yesterday are delightful...bountiful precip and temps are rather comfy for most as there aren't really any large scale AN temp regimes for most of the Sub.  The cooler signal for the southern/eastern U.S. is absolutely a strong indication of El Niño and the forthcoming pattern change. 

Week 2...temp & precip...

 

 

 

 

Week 3-4...the New LRC is going to rock!  Hello Block over the Top!

 

Temp & Precip...