October 2023 Weather in the PNW

[MossMan]

Power! Only a 6 hour outage…Not bad. Apparently a tree fell during that 1 mph microburst! 

[Phil]

Wow, the GFS really does suck. Comparatively, at least.

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1713728943516221653?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

[the_convergence_zone]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wow, the GFS really does suck. Comparatively, at least.

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1713728943516221653?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

To be fair, the Euro vs GFS has looked like that for as long as those plots have been around. The CMC used to be below the GFS, however. 

[Kolk1604]

49 minutes ago, Phil said:

Wow, the GFS really does suck. Comparatively, at least.

https://x.com/ryanmaue/status/1713728943516221653?s=46&t=656Z973wLtGKaIyhhq_7QQ

Does this mean Rob needs to do GEM countdowns instead of GFS? 

[Cold Snap]

Got 0.04” of rain today and had a high of 62.

[ShawniganLake]

0.2” of rain today.  

[TT-SEA]

Woke up for some reason... noticed its in the mid 60s out here at 3 a.m.  Pretty impressive.  Also appears to be a spider web on the lens 

[Dan the Weatherman]

15 hours ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

It really depends on the tree species. Was at Salmon Days last week and the trees through Old Towne are brilliant red and orange. Yellow across the mountains towards PooPoo Point. But those Cottonwoods hold green for a while.

PooPoo Point? Is there really a place with that name, or is that your nickname for the area?

[TT-SEA]

2 hours ago, Dan the Weatherman said:

PooPoo Point? Is there really a place with that name, or is that your nickname for the area?

All you ever wanted to know about Poo Poo Point.  It's a beautiful spot used by hang gliders.   

[TT-SEA]

The 06Z GFS was really dry.  

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Very mild morning as someone mentioned. Some light rain should move in later. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very mild morning as someone mentioned. Some light rain should move in later. 

Want to get your Dan Lanning thoughts in the sports thread.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Want to get your Dan Lanning thoughts in the sports thread.   

On it 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Very mild morning as someone mentioned. Some light rain should move in later. 

And so damp. Feels like early June out there. 

[ShawniganLake]

 

[Skagit Weather]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The 06Z GFS was really dry.  

 

Looks likely that this will end up being the 11th drier than normal month in a row up here and it's been since June 2022 that I had a significantly wetter than normal month (>20% above average). I average 35" of rain a year and so far I've picked up 16". My previous driest year up here was 2019 with just over 29" and it's going to take above average rainfall in both November and December to not make this my driest recorded year.

[Tyler Mode]

Dumping out there this morning.  Was dry at 715, now almost 0.20".  It's very dark too.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

34 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Looks likely that this will end up being the 11th drier than normal month in a row up here and it's been since June 2022 that I had a significantly wetter than normal month (>20% above average). I average 35" of rain a year and so far I've picked up 16". My previous driest year up here was 2019 with just over 29" and it's going to take above average rainfall in both November and December to not make this my driest recorded year.

Same here. I average 30” and am sitting at 8.3”. Currently raining tho

[fubario]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

The 06Z GFS was really dry.  

 

Congrats! 

[MossMan]

Was dry and mild at 7:30 when I let the dogs out…Was raining pretty good an hour later when I went to leave the house. The deer didn’t care, they were munching away on the leaves. 

[TT-SEA]

The temp map for early this morning is as cold as we have seen so far across the US.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Score? 

[Deweydog]

****++++<<GFS ALERT>>++++****

[ShawniganLake]

  GEM ALERT  

[the_convergence_zone]

Has anyone else noticed that the HRRR precipitation accumulation maps on WeatherBell are all wrong? It looks like they are summing instantaneous precipitation on the hour instead of using the 1-hr accumulation. The result is a "speckled" appearance rather than streaks. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like PDX should surpass an inch of rain for the month this morning. Better than last year at least. About the same as last year warmth wise though. Currently running a +4.5 departure on the month.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Score? 

This is the cold I was predicting.. just a week early. This setup would bring me snowfall

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like PDX should surpass an inch of rain for the month this morning. Better than last year at least. About the same as last year warmth wise though. Currently running a +4.5 departure on the month.

The warm nights are just killing them. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

SLE now up to 1.59” on the month. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The warm nights are just killing them. 

Similar anomalies up and down the I-5 corridor. Also an average high of 72 so far which is a significant departure in its own right.

[Cascadia_Wx]

59 with rain currently. Had a low of 54 early in the night before the wind picked up ahead of the rain, and the temp shot into the low 60s.

Had a very decent 65/53 day yesterday. Dry and partly to mostly cloudy with some scenic high clouds. Temps were progged to be in the low 70s so it was nice to see things underachieve for once.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Temperature got up to 59.0°F at 9:00 AM but front has evidently passed and it’s down to 56.6°F (and falling).

0.22" so far today.

[Deweydog]

2003

[ShawniganLake]

28 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This is the cold I was predicting.. just a week early. This setup would bring me snowfall

Looks a bit warm for snow. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Despite how mild it’s been, the tree phenology is much more on schedule this year. Lots of fall colour is on display. I think last season’s rude surprise for trees that clung on to their foliage has somehow registered.

[ShawniganLake]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Despite how mild it’s been, the tree phenology is much more on schedule this year. Lots of fall colour is on display. I think last season’s rude surprise for trees that clung on to their foliage has somehow registered.

Earlier and warmer spring this year.  The trees have finished their growth time needed this season and are ready for a nap

[the_convergence_zone]

9 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Earlier and warmer spring this year.  The trees have finished their growth time needed this season and are ready for a nap

This mild/wet weather has been convenient for gardening. Last year there was no opportunity to divide/relocate perennials in the fall. This year I've been doing it for several weeks already. It's like a little mini-spring with how much new growth there is. I also planted some potted trees and shrubs and I'm sure they are getting a nice start on getting their roots established. Conifer growth was pathetic last spring and I bet it will be much better this coming spring. 

I recently put a bluetooth scale on one of my beehives and they have been gaining 2-3 lbs of weight per day when it isn't raining. They had a net gain over the past week of 5 lbs even with all of that rain. Normally they would be losing weight this time of year. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Earlier and warmer spring this year.  The trees have finished their growth time needed this season and are ready for a nap

I’m sure that’s part of the picture, too, but I would not be surprised of some sort of a memory of an early freeze is part of it as well. Some of the street trees in Vancouver are the same species that are planted in places like Calgary and Edmonton. Those leaf out a lot later in the spring, yet they don’t hang on to their foliage through November.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Score? 

 

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

****++++<<GFS ALERT>>++++****

 

56 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

  GEM ALERT  

The 00z EURO from last night and the 12z GEM and GFS all showing cold anomalous air arriving next week.

[Snownerd3000]

44 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

2003

I recall a freezing cold Halloween party up at Lake Alger my freshman year up at WWU.  I feel like the rest of that winter was though.