November 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8 - ECMWF, GEM, GFS

[Phil]

Well the ECMWF did trend towards the other guidance, but not all the way. But definitely pushing that HI/Kona low farther east along w/ the ST ridge.

[Chewbacca Defense]

1 hour ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Anyone with experience with Amtrak Bellingham to Seattle? 

 

Our oldest is at WWU this year and we have a train ticket for them on the 21st. Pretty sure they will be able to make it, but trying to make reservations for the trip back up on Sunday the 26th. Should we put them back on the train or drive them back up?  

 

Assuming that the train should be fine if it snows. Not sure about transport between the train station and school, but figure WTA will have some buses running and it would be better than us trying to make the round trip even with 4WD. Any advice? 

Work confirming its actually a train and not a bus.  Amtrak does augment their services with buses a lot.  We thought we were putting our daughter on the train to go to Montana, and it turned out to be a bus for the Bellingham to Seattle leg.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Well the ECMWF did trend towards the other guidance, but not all the way. But definitely pushing that HI/Kona low farther east along w/ the ST ridge.

I noticed the same — it still has the windstorm which is nice but it’s not setting the stage for an extended cold wave. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er - ECMWF, GEM, GFS . Nope. Much closer than the GFS or GEM though. All hope isn't lost yet.

[the_convergence_zone]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

The low makes landfall farther north than its previous run but not as far north as gfs. Might turn out all right

 

[SpaceRace22]

The things I like about this forum specifically is that it seems to be the only weather discussion outlet I've found where people actually understand and share the appeal of autistically f5ing individual model runs that you know will almost certainly never happen.

People here seem to inherently understand that sharing a long range GFS frame is not an endorsement or a statement that you 100% think that solution will happen. They get that there is an appeal to this kind of stuff beyond simply discussing the cold and often boring reality of what is for sure going to happen.

Personally, I find entertainment and value in seeing various extreme model outputs that I am well aware are highly unlikely fantasies. I also find value in cheerleading for a given scenario to play out by following it from run to run, even though I know full well that it is highly unlikely to happen as the 282 hour 18z GFS predicts. Seems like most people here feel similarly.

Literally anywhere else on the internet you will immediately get shouted down and berated by a dozen people if you even mention the existence of a single model run beyond ~72 hours. People elsewhere seem completely unable to comprehend that some others find value in looking at these hyperspecific and unlikely solutions without believing it's actually going to happen like that. I have to be an entirely different person if posting on WxTwitter or a weather subreddit somewhere, and it's usually incredibly boring.

When the GFS ensembles were hinting at Hurricane Hilary actually forming and hitting Southern California, it was a full week and a half before I could even *hint* at the possibility of it occurring on any other weather discussion outlet without getting called an irresponsible moron. There's really no community I've found like this place for anywhere except the PNW, so it makes discussing weather events outside the PNW unbearably dull.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

3 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

The low makes landfall farther north than its previous run but not as far north as gfs. Might turn out all right

00z EURO is still much colder than the GFS/GEM at day 9. Everything will be alright.

 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Would it be as fun if we knew what was going to happen a week or 10 days from now? Probably not. I mean, the anticipation is part of the excitement. Can't remember how much I've loved some forecasts that were blown--surprise snow or snow that was supposed to turn to rain but didn't. That little "what if" is the magic of being a kid again--what if somehow, something happens and it snows?? What if this model is right and we get a ton of snow? What if the list model is wrong and we get snow anyway? Gotta take the chance of despair with it for that gamble of it paying off. Good thing we're not actually betting money when we go all in on some model run. Vegas doesn't do odds on the Euro 7 10 days out do they?

[lowlandsnow]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

 

That would be quite the windstorm

[Phil]

3 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Would it be as fun if we knew what was going to happen a week or 10 days from now? Probably not. I mean, the anticipation is part of the excitement. Can't remember how much I've loved some forecasts that were blown--surprise snow or snow that was supposed to turn to rain but didn't. That little "what if" is the magic of being a kid again--what if somehow, something happens and it snows?? What if this model is right and we get a ton of snow? What if the list model is wrong and we get snow anyway? Gotta take the chance of despair with it for that gamble of it paying off. Good thing we're not actually betting money when we go all in on some model run. Vegas doesn't do odds on the Euro 7 10 days out do they?

If I knew an epic storm was coming weeks/months out I wouldn’t mind it.

I remember tracking hurricane Sandy and something like 3.5 days out the ECMWF had 850mb winds over 115kts here while the GFS was a total whiff. I couldn’t sleep at night until that model battle resolved itself. (Of course the ECMWF won).

In the end we were spared by an inversion and “only” got 70mph gusts instead of 100+mph. That’s how I learned that the slightest difference in the in-situ boundary conditions can radically alter local outcomes.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

4 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Work confirming its actually a train and not a bus.  Amtrak does augment their services with buses a lot.  We thought we were putting our daughter on the train to go to Montana, and it turned out to be a bus for the Bellingham to Seattle leg.

It should be a train. Looks like first and last of the day are trains and then they have 2 routes in between that are bus service. Unless we get a ton of rain and mudslides on the track around Everett that is always closing the Sounder. Not looking like that in the next week or so, but if it happens, they'll do the bus. 

 

Went ahead and did the train ticket but got the refundable fare. Mostly because I'd rather do a short drive to Seattle than a round trip to Bellingham and deal with traffic. 

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, lowlandsnow said:

That would be quite the windstorm

A 988 landfall isn’t as sexy as some of the earlier runs, but this run has a perfect track for Puget Sound to get blasted. Still a week out so who knows what will actually transpire. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Good ol’ Alaskan blocking days 9/10 from the 00z EURO.

 

 

[lowlandsnow]

It's crazy how such slight difference in the initial conditions can lead to drastically different outcomes

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

Beautiful Alaskan Block!

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

Just now, Phil said:

If I knew an epic storm was coming weeks/months out I wouldn’t mind it.

I remember tracking hurricane Sandy and something like 3.5 days out the ECMWF had 850mb winds over 115kts here while the GFS was a total whiff. I couldn’t sleep at night until that model battle resolved itself. (Of course the ECMWF won).

I can see that for hurricanes or tornados, especially for storm chasers and it would be great for evacuating people! 

If I knew I could see thundersnow, I would try to make a trip to see it. But for those edge cases, I wonder if I would like that uncertainty and hope more. Hard to day because we will probably never get that degree of certainty in our models--the atmosphere is just SOO complex and has patterns we probably haven't even seen yet. Fun to think of those being discovered too.

[LowerGarfield]

9 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Would it be as fun if we knew what was going to happen a week or 10 days from now? Probably not. I mean, the anticipation is part of the excitement. Can't remember how much I've loved some forecasts that were blown--surprise snow or snow that was supposed to turn to rain but didn't. That little "what if" is the magic of being a kid again--what if somehow, something happens and it snows?? What if this model is right and we get a ton of snow? What if the list model is wrong and we get snow anyway? Gotta take the chance of despair with it for that gamble of it paying off. Good thing we're not actually betting money when we go all in on some model run. Vegas doesn't do odds on the Euro 7 10 days out do they?

You'd also have complaining about totals ten days sooner if they were exact. You're right. No fun in that.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z ECMWF 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[LowerGarfield]

13 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The things I like about this forum specifically is that it seems to be the only weather discussion outlet I've found where people actually understand and share the appeal of autistically f5ing individual model runs that you know will almost certainly never happen.

People here seem to inherently understand that sharing a long range GFS frame is not an endorsement or a statement that you 100% think that solution will happen. They get that there is an appeal to this kind of stuff beyond simply discussing the cold and often boring reality of what is for sure going to happen.

Personally, I find entertainment and value in seeing various extreme model outputs that I am well aware are highly unlikely fantasies. I also find value in cheerleading for a given scenario to play out by following it from run to run, even though I know full well that it is highly unlikely to happen as the 282 hour 18z GFS predicts. Seems like most people here feel similarly.

Literally anywhere else on the internet you will immediately get shouted down  and berated by a dozen people if you even mention the existence of a single model run beyond ~72 hours. People elsewhere seem completely unable to comprehend that some others find value in looking at these hyperspecific and unlikely solutions without believing it's actually going to happen like that. I have to be an entirely different person if posting on WxTwitter or a weather subreddit somewhere, and it's usually incredibly boring.

When the GFS ensembles were hinting at Hurricane Hilary actually forming and hitting Southern California, it was a full week and a half before I could even *hint* at the possibility of it occurring on any other weather discussion outlet without getting called an irresponsible moron. There's really no community I've found like this place for anywhere except the PNW, so it makes discussing weather events outside the PNW unbearably boring.

Not a true weather forum as it's dependent on Daniel's posts but WW is a fun blog for CA weather.

[SpaceRace22]

8 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

You'd also have complaining about totals ten days sooner if they were exact. You're right. No fun in that.

Haha, I've worried about this. With advancements in supercomputing and artificial intelligence, I suspect that at some point in the next decade or so, we will get solutions pretty much 100% locked in within 10 days, which does sound kind of boring. But In that case, nerds like us will probably just start our model riding 10 days sooner than we do now, and then have an awkward period of excitement or disappointment prior to the actual event, but after the details have been locked in by the fancy new models at day 10.

[Kolk1604]

I appreciate you Rob!! Anyone up for some 00z EPS control comparisons? 

Day 6 

 

[Kolk1604]

Day 7 

[SpaceRace22]

5 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Not a true weather forum as it's dependent on Daniel's posts but WW is a fun blog for CA weather.

I do really like Daniel, but he's definitely more in the camp of ultra-conservative professionals when it comes to calling big events in advance. I definitely get why he is that way, because he's a public figure at this point and can't get the general public of normies all worked up over something that isn't locked in yet. He's good at what he does, but it doesn't scratch the same itch for me that the schizoposting does here, haha. I'm super excited to move to the PNW full time so I can model ride with this place 100% of the time and not just for the times when I'm up there visiting.

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Not knowing what to do after a cold snap genuinely used to give me whiplash as a kid. It's gotten better with age, but it will always be a very sudden transition going from paying attention to the weather all the time, then back to your actual life. It feels similar to returning from vacation, maybe a little milder.

110% this.

I still vividly remember the funk following the December 2008 monstrosity. Between the fact it was face meltingly epic, it ended essentially on Christmas and we had two ankle biters at the time, the backside malaise was intense. 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

 

[Cold Snap]

4 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

 

Nice to see that the EPS still looks good.

[Kolk1604]

[Kolk1604]

Day 10 00z EPS. This will change and that's what makes this fun. 

 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

6 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Nice to see that the EPS still looks good.

Not as good as before, but not a disaster either.  Same with the operational.

[Gradient Keeper]

It is crazy how profoundly better the EPS is compared to the GEFS or CMCE.

[Kolk1604]

Northsound snowstorm on the control next Monday/Tuesday. 

[Dan the Weatherman]

32 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Not a true weather forum as it's dependent on Daniel's posts but WW is a fun blog for CA weather.

I enjoy Weather West and post on there on a daily basis, since I live in Socal. That is the closest equivalent of a weather forum / blog for California as this forum is for the PNW in terms of weather and climate discussion and model riding. There is no other California oriented weather forum or blog I am aware of that is like WW.

Edited November 13, 2023 by Dan the Weatherman

[Slushy Inch]

[Kolk1604]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Gotta admit it's fun to look at! lol 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, Kolk1604 said:

Gotta admit it's fun to look at! lol 

 

I like the look of purple on wb

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

36 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The things I like about this forum specifically is that it seems to be the only weather discussion outlet I've found where people actually understand and share the appeal of autistically f5ing individual model runs that you know will almost certainly never happen.

People here seem to inherently understand that sharing a long range GFS frame is not an endorsement or a statement that you 100% think that solution will happen. They get that there is an appeal to this kind of stuff beyond simply discussing the cold and often boring reality of what is for sure going to happen.

Personally, I find entertainment and value in seeing various extreme model outputs that I am well aware are highly unlikely fantasies. I also find value in cheerleading for a given scenario to play out by following it from run to run, even though I know full well that it is highly unlikely to happen as the 282 hour 18z GFS predicts. Seems like most people here feel similarly.

Literally anywhere else on the internet you will immediately get shouted down and berated by a dozen people if you even mention the existence of a single model run beyond ~72 hours. People elsewhere seem completely unable to comprehend that some others find value in looking at these hyperspecific and unlikely solutions without believing it's actually going to happen like that. I have to be an entirely different person if posting on WxTwitter or a weather subreddit somewhere, and it's usually incredibly boring.

When the GFS ensembles were hinting at Hurricane Hilary actually forming and hitting Southern California, it was a full week and a half before I could even *hint* at the possibility of it occurring on any other weather discussion outlet without getting called an irresponsible moron. There's really no community I've found like this place for anywhere except the PNW, so it makes discussing weather events outside the PNW unbearably dull.

It's that excitement and enthusiasm for weather that publicly most professional mets can't seem to have because they have to be unbiased and have to make forecasts rather than rooting for a particular outcome. 

A little tangential, but I remember the first day of my Atmospheric Sciences 101 course at UW. March 31, 1997. And we had had an unpredicted wind storm the day prior. My professor basically threw out the days lesson plan to talk about the windstorm and show pictures from the radar of the low pressure system and just kind of geek out with us, most of whom would never be taking another class about weather. It was so cool to just see his love of the subject shine and teaching us through that bits of what we needed to know. We're not in that same level here (sorry to those who are mets), but that crazy enthusiasm is. Thr desire to know what's going on now, what might happen in the future, and to understand what happened in the past is in so many posters here. Gotta love it!

 

(And no, for those who might be wondering based on my name, Professor Mass was not teaching ATMOS 101 at that time. )

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Wanted to tell y’all how much you mean to me. Im having a really bad night cognitively and it’s getting worse. Im laying in the bed trting to stay positive but it’s not easy. The roller coaster ride of the models will be fun to follow as always.

Thanks so very much to all of you. I keep having so many seizures and I’m genuinely scared. I hope that y’all get a huge snow event. Something truly unforgettable. I’m gonna think positively for you.

@MR.SNOWMIZER @SilverFallsAndrew @Gradient Keeper @MossMan @Cold Snap @Phil @TT-SEA @iFred @Meatyorologist @Deweydog @snow_wizard Plus everyone I’m forgetting cuz of my terrible memory. Thank all of y’all so very much for teaching me so much more than I ever thought possible.  For putting up with me. You’re truly class acts, all of you.

Just really worried about my brain right now. Laying down and seeing if it helps and if the neurostimulator can work.

[Gradient Keeper]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Wanted to tell y’all how much you mean to me. Im having a really bad night cognitively and it’s getting worse. Im laying in the bed trting to stay positive but it’s not easy. The roller coaster ride of the models will be fun to follow as always.

Thanks so very much to all of you. I keep having so many seizures and I’m genuinely scared. I hope that y’all get a huge snow event. Something truly unforgettable. I’m gonna think positively for you.

@MR.SNOWMIZER @SilverFallsAndrew @Gradient Keeper @MossMan @Cold Snap @Phil @TT-SEA @iFred @Meatyorologist @Deweydog @snow_wizard Plus everyone I’m forgetting cuz of my terrible memory. Thank all of y’all so very much for teaching me so much more than I ever thought possible.  For putting up with me. You’re truly class acts, all of you.

Just really worried about my brain right now. Laying down and seeing if it helps and if the neurostimulator can work.

I appreciate that. Bro, you just go rest. Rest easy. Take care of yourself. We'll all be here when you get back and hopefully the models will be in our favor.