Port Angeles Foothiller Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: What a dumpster fire. The world's premier model is NOT on board. It has the alaska ridge, just nudged a little East. Honestly not that bad. 2 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BLI snowman Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 28 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: 00z CFS was not good in the long range though. Would gladly sacrifice Thanksgiving for Christmas. I hope it snows. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gradient Keeper Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 If this goes completely off the rails it's not surprising as the potential pattern change and cold pattern was 8 days out. So we look for trends. We had them in our favor for 24 hours or so. Now that may be backing off. The Canadian solution would be okay with me. The CFS is kind of similar with a big backdoor shot. The EPS held serve pretty much. At least the GFS gives us a decent Columbia Basin cold pool. This isn't over yet we could easily go back to cold solutions. Let's see what the 12z Euro and EPS show today. Ya gotta believe! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: If this goes completely off the rails it's not surprising as the potential pattern change and cold pattern was 8 days out. So we look for trends. We had them in our favor for 24 hours or so. Now that may be backing off. The Canadian solution would be okay with me. The CFS is kind of similar with a big backdoor shot. The EPS held serve pretty much. At least the GFS gives us a decent Columbia Basin cold pool. This isn't over yet we could easily go back to cold solutions. Let's see what the 12z Euro and EPS show today. Ya gotta believe! Most solutions have the alaska ridge which we need for a cold shot. The placement of that will waffle, but as long as that keeps showing up I'd bet on some period of cold air for us. Now will we have precip? Who knows. Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 https://x.com/MtStHelensWA/status/1724119875218739542?s=20 Volcanic cooling plus Nina winter 24/25. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: Most solutions have the alaska ridge which we need for a cold shot. The placement of that will waffle, but as long as that keeps showing up I'd bet on some period of cold air for us. Now will we have precip? Who knows. The problem is that ridge is expected to be centered way north, it looks like it's going to get undercut by weak storms from the west. Central/eastern US snow weenies are licking their chops right now at our expense. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: https://x.com/MtStHelensWA/status/1724119875218739542?s=20 Volcanic cooling plus Nina winter 24/25. I’m good with global cooling. Though I think neutral years have the craziest snows even though La Niña average is higher. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 10 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: https://x.com/MtStHelensWA/status/1724119875218739542?s=20 Volcanic cooling plus Nina winter 24/25. Also the Icelandic volcano will probably blow 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Too quiet this morning... Day 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 These little baby volcanic eruptions are not going to move the needle. You need a massive eruption in the tropics. And even then it can backfire like what happened with Tonga causing warming instead of cooling. Maybe all that water vapor in the stratosphere will eventually go away… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Also the Icelandic volcano will probably blow Yep and that one looks juicy. https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1724076210311791005?s=20 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Just now, the_convergence_zone said: These little baby volcanic eruptions are not going to move the needle. You need a massive eruption in the tropics. And even then it can backfire like what happened with Tonga causing warming instead of cooling. Maybe all that water vapor in the stratosphere will eventually go away… If I recall, there was cooling from the last Iceland eruption a few years back. All I'm looking for is something to hopefully mitigate the warming induced by all the water vapor ejected into the atmosphere by Tonga. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said: Yep and that one looks juicy. https://x.com/WxNB_/status/1724076210311791005?s=20 Holy ! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Day 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 13, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 For those expectations a huge, climate changing eruption from Iceland, think again. Wont happen. I've been following Iceland volcanic activity for years, and this activity won't end up with a massive explosion. First, it's the wrong kind of magma. This is the kind of magma that produces effusive, fissure eruptions like the last 3 eruptions have since 2021 in the same region. There is a decreasing chance that the eruption could start offshore, where the sudden heating of water from magma interaction could produce some (relatively) small explosions. It could be devastating for that area, but nothing that would produce a massive eruption. At the very most a VEI 2, and even that is very unlikely. For official information from actual vulcanologists that know this area, here is the official web site with the latest information. https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night Though there is some good info on X and YouTube, there is also a lot of crap from doomsday people who know nothing about volcanoes and just like to get a lot of clicks. 8 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said: Holy ! Just posted how this certainly wont be a climate changing massive explosion. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Day 6 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 14 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said: These little baby volcanic eruptions are not going to move the needle. You need a massive eruption in the tropics. And even then it can backfire like what happened with Tonga causing warming instead of cooling. Maybe all that water vapor in the stratosphere will eventually go away… I agree, we need another Pinatubo. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Day 7 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Well, we lost the euro. Gotta wait till the next favorable setup. 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christensen87 Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 GFS for the win. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: Well, we lost the euro. Gotta wait till the next favorable setup. Not sure how. EPS hasn't started yet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: Well, we lost the euro. Gotta wait till the next favorable setup. Big shift from the EURO for next Tuesday. I was not expecting that. Just gotta wait for the EPS now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Day 8. We're just going to call this a bad run. Server issues or something 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 13 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Just posted how this certainly wont be a climate changing massive explosion. Said that because the ground is cracking Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Hoping that this is just an outlier for the Euro. Quote 2023 - 2024 Cold Season Stats Total Snowfall - 0.75” Max Snow Depth - 0.5” Coldest High Temp - 21 (Jan 13) Coldest Low Temp - 9 (Jan 13) Number of Freezes - 51 Sub-40 highs - 12 Highs 32 or lower - 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Just now, Slushy Inch said: Said that because the ground is cracking It is certainly an interesting and dangerous situation, thanks for posting the picture. And I'm following it closely too. But I just wanted to remind people that a massive climate changing eruption isn't in the cards. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 People around here act shocked when an advertised arctic blast at day 10 or so doesn't materialize. We should know better. We're like Charlie Brown expecting Lucy to let him kick the football. Yes it does happen sometimes, and it may still, maybe just one of those 24 hour hiccups that happen in the models before an actual arctic blast does happen. Or maybe one of those delayed but not denied situations. But we've seen this so many times that I'm SMH wondering why people are so surprised. We've seen the rug pulled out at 2-3 days let alone 7 days. There are hardly ever slam dunks, or "no questions about it" this far out. 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: Tiger, hang in there and never give up fighting for hope. You’ve made it this far and you will continue to get better. With advances in medical technology you are in good hands. Hoping you don’t have to move to Indiana since you have lots of friends here but always do what’s best for you. The family from Indiana is moving back here to Springfield so my family is stuck here. None of the rest of them like snow and cold sadly. 4 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HuskyMaestro Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 13 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: I agree, we need another Pinatubo. Pinatubo was crazy for my family back home. I wasn't born until 6 years later but both my parents had to deal with the wet raining ash when a typhoon decided to join a big VEI-6 eruption for a double slice of hell. So the ash that was dispersed to the ocean got collected and brought all back to rain on Luzon. The pyroclastic flows from that eruption were scary textbook material. I wonder if I could ever head home and buy Pinatubo ashes for my garden lol 5 Quote 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 10 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: Hows the numbness? Have they Saud what kind if surgery? Unchanged. And 2 options if the steroid injection doesn’t work. Option one is to shave off the part of the disc that protruding and burn it to close the wound (and burn the local nerves so I won’t feel pain there). It’s all arthroscopic and basically outpatient. Option two is something I had never heard of before. Apparently I’m a candidate for an “artificial disc”, but that is more invasive and I doubt my insurance will cover that. Don’t want ti mess with that. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 7 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: People around here act shocked when an advertised arctic blast at day 10 or so doesn't materialize. We should know better. We're like Charlie Brown expecting Lucy to let him kick the football. Yes it does happen sometimes, and it may still, maybe just one of those 24 hour hiccups that happen in the models before an actual arctic blast does happen. Or maybe one of those delayed but not denied situations. But we've seen this so many times that I'm SMH wondering why people are so surprised. We've seen the rug pulled out at 2-3 days let alone 7 days. There are hardly ever slam dunks, or "no questions about it" this far out. It felt flukey to me from the start. Almost bought into the hype, but the 00z runs saved me. 4 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Euro suggests the trip to grandmother’s house might be safe and expeditious. Blessing. #familyfirst #livelaughlove 2 1 1 1 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 3 hours ago, SnarkyGoblin said: An interesting statistic year by year would be the number of winter cancel posts. Which one do you think had the most? 2020-2021? I couldn't even begin to remember which "storm" had the most number of winter cancel moments? Gotta be one that trended north at the end. I remember this forum had a major meltdown in January 2011, I think models snatched away 3-4 feet of lowland snow inside 3-4 days. 40 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said: I agree, we need another Pinatubo. We need Yellowstone to pop off a VEI8. And then Toba and Krakatoa to add to it. @TT-SEA always gets upset at me when I say this, but we all know it’s the truth. 2 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, Phil said: Unchanged. And 2 options if the steroid injection doesn’t work. Option one is to shave off the part of the disc that protruding and burn it to close the wound (and burn the local nerves so I won’t feel pain there). It’s all arthroscopic and basically outpatient. Option two is something I had never heard of before. Apparently I’m a candidate for an “artificial disc”, but that is more invasive and I doubt my insurance will cover that. Don’t want ti mess with that. The newer artificial disc's are the next generation ones and are much longer lasting than the first generation ones. They often didn't last more than 10 years and would have to be taken out and a fusion procedure would be done. My fusion was minimally invasive, 4 small incisions that healed quickly. And I spent only 1 night in the hospital. It's going through the muscles that causes a lot of discomfort and stiffness. If I had the option of an artificial disc, I would have done that. And probably I could have had that done if I had more time to ask other surgeons, but due to my dropfoot, I didn't have time to waste. Not an easy choice, and I guess if the simpler surgery doesn't work, the artificial disc would be an alternative. My concern with your first option would be that, even if you didn't feel pain, that you would still have numbness because the nerve is still being compressed. That's the question I would ask of my surgeon. And of course 2nd opinions are important too. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Oof. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Phil said: We need Yellowstone to pop off a VEI8. And then Toba and Krakatoa to add to it. @TT-SEA always gets upset at me when I say this, but we all know it’s the truth. Imagine anyone saying this ever out in public. 2 3 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 The 12Z EPS is likely to be the final nail in the coffin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Oof. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kolk1604 Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Just now, the_convergence_zone said: The 12Z EPS is likely to be the final nail in the coffin. Until it flips tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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