Phil Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Winter 2010/11 was the king of Charlie Brown moments across the country. I’ll NEVER forgive the atrocity that was the Boxing Day (non)blizzard. 48hrs out Euro and GFS were printing out 2+ft of snow and 60mph winds with temps in the middle teens here. The only model against it was the f**king 12km NAM. And sure enough, the next morning I wake up and all models have caved and now depict a dusting. I was so pissed and heartbroken I can still feel the emotion today. And to top it off both VA Beach/NE NC and NYC/New England got hammered with a blizzard. Gapped us entirely. Of course we still got the dry 60+mph wind. Dry/snowless wind never fails here. As reliable as the sun coming up. 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 13 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: It felt flukey to me from the start. Almost bought into the hype, but the 00z runs saved me. Yeah I had that same feeling as well. Kind of why I didn’t really let myself get that excited about this. Quote 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 2 Number of 85+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 86) Number of 90+ days - 0 Number of 95+ days - 0 Number of 60+ lows - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 24 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: People around here act shocked when an advertised arctic blast at day 10 or so doesn't materialize. We should know better. We're like Charlie Brown expecting Lucy to let him kick the football. Yes it does happen sometimes, and it may still, maybe just one of those 24 hour hiccups that happen in the models before an actual arctic blast does happen. Or maybe one of those delayed but not denied situations. But we've seen this so many times that I'm SMH wondering why people are so surprised. We've seen the rug pulled out at 2-3 days let alone 7 days. There are hardly ever slam dunks, or "no questions about it" this far out. I mean, I’m not really surprised. I’m just pissed. When the EPS looks like this at day 9 I feel like we should get something that looks like that even if it ain’t a blast. Maybe I’m just greedy (I am). But the complete flip sucks. 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnarkyGoblin Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 20 minutes ago, Phil said: Unchanged. And 2 options if the steroid injection doesn’t work. Option one is to shave off the part of the disc that protruding and burn it to close the wound (and burn the local nerves so I won’t feel pain there). It’s all arthroscopic and basically outpatient. Option two is something I had never heard of before. Apparently I’m a candidate for an “artificial disc”, but that is more invasive and I doubt my insurance will cover that. Don’t want ti mess with that. My back started hurting after reading this. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Imagine anyone saying this ever out in public. I have. Lol. Tongue in cheek of course, obv I’m not being 100% serious. Mass death and suffering isn’t worth it. But can’t deny there would be upsides for us weather nerds if it happened. Plus I’m sure obesity rates would go down. Almost everything has an upside, even if minuscule. Right? Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 I’m ready to be hurt again 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Ugly Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: Imagine anyone saying this ever out in public. “We need a bit of WWIII action as that is the only way we are going to be able to both fight inflation and get cold winters back. Nuclear ejecta is far more potent as a sunlight blocker than anything else we have and we won’t have to rely on a -PDO.” - Cliff Mass, probably. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, RentonHill said: I mean, I’m not really surprised. I’m just pissed. When the EPS looks like this at day 9 I feel like we should get something that looks like that even if it ain’t a blast. Maybe I’m just greedy (I am). But the complete flip sucks. I’ve noticed last minute rug pulls often happen in the direction of ENSO climatology. And we’re definitely not in La Niña anymore. Though tbh this one surprised me, blocking signal just collapsed into a progressive snoozefest. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, Phil said: I’ve noticed last minute rug pulls often happen in the direction of ENSO climatology. And we’re definitely not in La Niña anymore. Though tbh this one surprised me, blocking signal just collapsed into a progressive snoozefest. The pattern isn't that much different except the STJ is beefed up, as you'd expect with a strong +ENSO. Ends up making things more zonal south of 50°N and Arctic air in Canada ejects east just too early. 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 16 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: The newer artificial disc's are the next generation ones and are much longer lasting than the first generation ones. They often didn't last more than 10 years and would have to be taken out and a fusion procedure would be done. My fusion was minimally invasive, 4 small incisions that healed quickly. And I spent only 1 night in the hospital. It's going through the muscles that causes a lot of discomfort and stiffness. If I had the option of an artificial disc, I would have done that. And probably I could have had that done if I had more time to ask other surgeons, but due to my dropfoot, I didn't have time to waste. Not an easy choice, and I guess if the simpler surgery doesn't work, the artificial disc would be an alternative. My concern with your first option would be that, even if you didn't feel pain, that you would still have numbness because the nerve is still being compressed. That's the question I would ask of my surgeon. And of course 2nd opinions are important too. Thanks, this is good information. Doc doesn’t recommend fusion for me because I’m relatively young and don’t have “degenerative” loss of disc height. This was apparently an acute injury that compounded on itself due to my ignorance of what was actually going on (also have scar tissue from multiple facet ligament tears that likely occurred with the original injury). I’ve never had back problems before so this is all new to me. And a major wake up call. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Unfortunately the pattern ends up busting in the worst most boring possible way. Well at least we pull off the October/November torch combo. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Here is The Fuzz…It clears everything up! 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
seattleweatherguy Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Windstorm gone too with the model flip? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 For what it is worth.. 1 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 6 minutes ago, MossMan said: Here is The Fuzz…It clears everything up! Super fuzz 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: The family from Indiana is moving back here to Springfield so my family is stuck here. None of the rest of them like snow and cold sadly. Glad you are staying put! 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 We haven't lost everyone 1 1 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: We haven't lost everyone Yay we have the CFS… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Just now, Slushy Inch said: Yay we have the CFS… Desperate times... 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: Desperate times... Indeed Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, HuskyMaestro said: Pinatubo was crazy for my family back home. I wasn't born until 6 years later but both my parents had to deal with the wet raining ash when a typhoon decided to join a big VEI-6 eruption for a double slice of hell. So the ash that was dispersed to the ocean got collected and brought all back to rain on Luzon. The pyroclastic flows from that eruption were scary textbook material. I wonder if I could ever head home and buy Pinatubo ashes for my garden lol I watched some videos on the Pinatubo eruption and it was pretty crazy. The Saint Helens eruption was big but Pinatubo was like ten times larger just to put it into perspective. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Omegaraptor Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 23 minutes ago, Phil said: Winter 2010/11 was the king of Charlie Brown moments across the country. I’ll NEVER forgive the atrocity that was the Boxing Day (non)blizzard. 48hrs out Euro and GFS were printing out 2+ft of snow and 60mph winds with temps in the middle teens here. The only model against it was the f**king 12km NAM. And sure enough, the next morning I wake up and all models have caved and now depict a dusting. I was so pissed and heartbroken I can still feel the emotion today. And to top it off both VA Beach/NE NC and NYC/New England got hammered with a blizzard. Gapped us entirely. Of course we still got the dry 60+mph wind. Dry/snowless wind never fails here. As reliable as the sun coming up. There was that time in January 2020 the models showed 1950/1969 level stuff a week out and it ended up being a bunch of 40 degree drizzle… 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 58 minutes ago, Phil said: I remember this forum had a major meltdown in January 2011, I think models snatched away 3-4 feet of lowland snow inside 3-4 days. We need Yellowstone to pop off a VEI8. And then Toba and Krakatoa to add to it. @TT-SEA always gets upset at me when I say this, but we all know it’s the truth. Volcanic eruptions and earthquakes are just a natural part of life here on Earth whether we like it or not. We just gotta be prepared as best as we can if they occur. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frontal Snowsquall Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 17 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said: For what it is worth.. The 12z GEM also showed Alaskan blocking at day 10. We are still over a week out. Game is not over yet. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: The family from Indiana is moving back here to Springfield so my family is stuck here. None of the rest of them like snow and cold sadly. I bet they regularly have snow on the ground in mid winter up in Indiana.. it's much shorter lived just a bit to the south of them. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 27 minutes ago, Phil said: Thanks, this is good information. Doc doesn’t recommend fusion for me because I’m relatively young and don’t have “degenerative” loss of disc height. This was apparently an acute injury that compounded on itself due to my ignorance of what was actually going on (also have scar tissue from multiple facet ligament tears that likely occurred with the original injury). I’ve never had back problems before so this is all new to me. And a major wake up call. I know it probably sounds oversimplified at this stage of the game but do you have a good chiropractor? My sciatica flares like a mofo at times and the place I go does miraculous work. I was convinced about eight years ago right now (wasn’t a pleasant Thanksgiving) that I was on a one way track toward the OR but they righted the ship. 4 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunriver Snow Zone Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Has anyone been counting how many times winter has been canceled this year? Add 1 to it. Pretty unfortunate that all we have now, is the CFS...... 2 Quote Coldest temp this winter: -7 Jan 13th Snow depth at Mount Bachelor (last updated April 29th) 88" Snow depth at my home (updated April 29th) late season 1"! 23-24 seasonal snowfall at home (updated April 29th) 92"!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 2 hours ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said: For those expectations a huge, climate changing eruption from Iceland, think again. Wont happen. I've been following Iceland volcanic activity for years, and this activity won't end up with a massive explosion. First, it's the wrong kind of magma. This is the kind of magma that produces effusive, fissure eruptions like the last 3 eruptions have since 2021 in the same region. There is a decreasing chance that the eruption could start offshore, where the sudden heating of water from magma interaction could produce some (relatively) small explosions. It could be devastating for that area, but nothing that would produce a massive eruption. At the very most a VEI 2, and even that is very unlikely. For official information from actual vulcanologists that know this area, here is the official web site with the latest information. https://en.vedur.is/about-imo/news/a-seismic-swarm-started-north-of-grindavik-last-night Though there is some good info on X and YouTube, there is also a lot of crap from doomsday people who know nothing about volcanoes and just like to get a lot of clicks. Seems like the most newsworthy aspect of the Iceland thing is the activity that is happening in the middle of a town, which is certainly noteworthy/newsworthy, but on the scale of volcanic activity in general, its a "meh" 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 Awaiting the drunk uncle to bring the party back 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chewbacca Defense Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said: Imagine anyone saying this ever out in public. One downside if Yellowstone popped off is that we would lose a source for amazing "stupid tourist"/"Darwin Award nominee" videos and pictures. 1 1 Quote Britton Rd Bellingham Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWABELLI103?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 37 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said: There was that time in January 2020 the models showed 1950/1969 level stuff a week out and it ended up being a bunch of 40 degree drizzle… Wasn’t 1950 or 69 but was still an awesome week! 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Port Angeles Foothiller Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 CPC still running with a cold outlook 4 1 Quote PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220 2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 5 minutes ago, MossMan said: Wasn’t 1950 or 69 but was still an awesome week! KFalls had a pretty snowy week out of that one, but the winter was largely a dud if you count the following 2 months. I had 18.5" from 1/9 to 1/16, locked horns with some 1 week snows from 2017 and 2012. 1 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 CFS! 1 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 probably still far enough out where things can reverse. that's the positive Seems we have a lot against us in this currently Strong +ENSO event. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fubario Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 17 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said: One downside if Yellowstone popped off is that we would lose a source for amazing "stupid tourist"/"Darwin Award nominee" videos and pictures. Pretty sure there's only "one downside" if Yellowstone pops off. lol 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 (edited) We are cooked if we are down to the CFS. See y'all at the next la nina Edited November 13, 2023 by SouthHillFrosty 2 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Timmy Supercell Posted November 13, 2023 Report Share Posted November 13, 2023 22 minutes ago, fubario said: Pretty sure there's only "one downside" if Yellowstone pops off. lol There's other equally powerful ones, Yellowstone gets too much attention. 2 Quote Ashland, KY Weather '23-'24 Winter Snowfall - 5.50" First freeze: 11/1 (32) Minimum: 2 on 1/17 Measurable snows: 4 Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19) Thunders: 22 1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15 3/26, 3/30, 3/31, 4/2, 4/3, 4/8, 5/4, 5/5, 5/6, 5/7 5/8, 5/15, Severe storms: 2 ------------------------------------------------------- [Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021] https://imgur.com/SuGTijl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Posted by MossMan,
11 reactions
Go to this post
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.