RentonHill Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 Latest GEFS weeklies are lining up with the EPS for the early January PV warming 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Offshore flow will be fairly weak and we are supposed to have good precip intensity. Yea we’ll score! I’m excited. Probs storm of the year. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 Nice jet extenze-ion 7 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, TT-SEA said: 00Z GFS is running. Hood Canal and Vancouver Island are going to get snow. Not so sure about the east side of the Puget Sound. WOW WTF 5 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 9, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 Not much of anything interesting being shown on the models for here. Hopefully we can get a sub-40F high at some point. Been almost 5 years since I’ve been able to post daytime snow pictures with snow-covered roads. I feel like that’s pretty unusual and depressing. 2 2 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 34 dewpoint 32 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
umadbro Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 11 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Nice jet extenze-ion Euro mainly agrees with that which is striking considering it’s that far out. 1 Quote https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f my personal weather station Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, umadbro said: Euro mainly agrees with that which is striking considering it’s that far out. Ya it seems like a lock. Wish we could just skip ahead two weeks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 Already down to 32 here with a DP of 30 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poulsbo Snowman Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 DPs will become very relevant soon. Foggy, 34. Clear as a bell above the fog. Might get below freezing tonight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownerd3000 Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 2 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: I had my emergency appendectomy that August. Must have been something in the air that year, Andrew. My son had an appendectomy just a couple months back. It's coming. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 52 minutes ago, RentonHill said: Nice jet extenze-ion We will see what happens when it retracts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 34. DP 33. Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 This is what the Euro shows. I feel like this the most reasonable outcome. Shows at least flakes flying for most people north of Olympia. 5 Quote 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 2 Number of 85+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 86) Number of 90+ days - 0 Number of 95+ days - 0 Number of 60+ lows - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 5 minutes ago, Cold Snap said: This is what the Euro shows. I feel like this the most reasonable outcome. Shows at least flakes flying for most people north of Olympia. When do the first flakes start flying? Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowySeeker50 Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 Heavy fog right by home and 35 degrees 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 I don’t trust the global models with dynamic cooling snow events, especially when the HRRR isn’t buying it. There’s always some random spot around Shelton that cashes in with a few inches. It does look like there could be a few bursts of flakes in the high spots. I bet @MossMan gets something. There’s absolutely zero chance of snow in Seattle. 2 2 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowWillarrive Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said: I don’t trust the global models with dynamic cooling snow events, especially when the HRRR isn’t buying it. There’s always some random spot around Shelton that cashes in with a few inches. It does look like there could be a few bursts of flakes in the high spots. I bet @MossMan gets something. There’s absolutely zero chance of snow in Seattle. HRRR is always wrong 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 Perhaps we will have a nice little over achiever like we did in December 2020! 3 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 9 minutes ago, MossMan said: When do the first flakes start flying? Looks like sometime around noon. 1 Quote 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 2 Number of 85+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 86) Number of 90+ days - 0 Number of 95+ days - 0 Number of 60+ lows - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said: I don’t trust the global models with dynamic cooling snow events, especially when the HRRR isn’t buying it. There’s always some random spot around Shelton that cashes in with a few inches. It does look like there could be a few bursts of flakes in the high spots. I bet @MossMan gets something. Any amount of slop covering the ground will be a win in my 2023 book! 5 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Winter Warlock Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said: I don’t trust the global models with dynamic cooling snow events, especially when the HRRR isn’t buying it. There’s always some random spot around Shelton that cashes in with a few inches. It does look like there could be a few bursts of flakes in the high spots. I bet @MossMan gets something. There’s absolutely zero chance of snow in Seattle. 7 Quote Located near Covington / Black Diamond, WA. Elevation ~550 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said: HRRR is always wrong All models are wrong, some models are useful. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 Probably more of a February 2016 redux this year. Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said: I don’t trust the global models with dynamic cooling snow events, especially when the HRRR isn’t buying it. There’s always some random spot around Shelton that cashes in with a few inches. It does look like there could be a few bursts of flakes in the high spots. I bet @MossMan gets something. There’s absolutely zero chance of snow in Seattle. Shit's gon be isothermal AF beneath 700mb tomorrow morning. Given the cool/dry sfc atmosphere and the trajectory of the front, I'd honestly be surprised if we don't have some ice in the sky for Seattle a little before lunchtime. The airmass aloft is relatively warm, but just cool enough where it counts. Not saying we'll have gridlock on I5 but us weenies probably do have something to look forward to tomorrow. 7 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 Pretty frosty out there, but I can say with confidence it is NOT going to snow here tomorrow. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_convergence_zone Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: 's gon be isothermal AF beneath 700mb tomorrow morning. Given the cool/dry sfc atmosphere and the trajectory of the front, I'd honestly be surprised if we don't have some ice in the sky for Seattle a little before lunchtime. The airmass aloft is relatively warm, but just cool enough where it counts. Not saying we'll have gridlock on I5 but us weenies probably do have something to look forward to tomorrow. I agree that it’s possible in the high spot near I-5 between Northgate and Lynwood. Same as similar setups in the past. At sea level? No way. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 57 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: We will see what happens when it retracts. What exactly is a jet extension and what does it mean for PNW weather? And the same question for jet retraction. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 43 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said: I don’t trust the global models with dynamic cooling snow events, especially when the HRRR isn’t buying it. There’s always some random spot around Shelton that cashes in with a few inches. It does look like there could be a few bursts of flakes in the high spots. I bet @MossMan gets something. There’s absolutely zero chance of snow in Seattle. Zero chance? Ok green horn. 2 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 Too bad the ECWF is actually a touch warmer with 925mb temps tomorrow than the 12z run. Really odd how it has a slightly more favorable temperature profile for south King County than north King County with this one. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: Zero chance? Ok green horn. Yeah...never say no chance in a case like this. 3 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 53 minutes ago, MossMan said: When do the first flakes start flying? About 25 thousand seconds. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 I have to say the ECWF is playing with fire on this run. The later part looks like a very Ninoish pattern. The odd thing is it's so early int he season. Usually that pattern doesn't set up until the second half of the winter. 1 Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthHillFrosty Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said: Yeah...never say no chance in a case like this. Particularly since “Seattle” includes the summits of High Point, Queen Anne Hill, Capitol Hill, etc. All over 400'. Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said: Baby blue for me! 1 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 hour ago, the_convergence_zone said: I don’t trust the global models with dynamic cooling snow events, especially when the HRRR isn’t buying it. There’s always some random spot around Shelton that cashes in with a few inches. It does look like there could be a few bursts of flakes in the high spots. I bet @MossMan gets something. There’s absolutely zero chance of snow in Seattle. I'm in the blue on the HRRR! Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smerfylicious Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 All my homies hate the WRF Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post BLI snowman Posted December 9, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 (edited) 34 minutes ago, AbbyJr said: What exactly is a jet extension and what does it mean for PNW weather? And the same question for jet retraction. Jet extensions are associated with lots of energy crossing the Pacific, creating zonal flow and mild rain locally. However during winter they can also be an indication of colder air building at the pole and beginning to press south. Retractions are associated with greater mid latitude blocking and amplification, which is useful in dislodging that cold air and sending it into the lower 48. Ebb and flow. Edited December 9, 2023 by BLI snowman 13 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 9, 2023 Report Share Posted December 9, 2023 1 minute ago, BLI snowman said: Jet extensions are associated with lots of energy crossing the Pacific, creating zonal flow and mild rain locally. However during winter they can also be an indication of colder air building at the poles in and beginning to press south. Retractions are associated with greater mid latitude blocking and amplification, which is useful in dislodging that cold air and sending it into the lower 48. Ebb and flow. Excellent explanation. Thanks so much. I love adding to my meteorological knowledge. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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