Slushy Inch Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, Phil said: GEFS meteogram has no value with its coarse resolution missing terrain and its inferior boundary layer physics. EPS much better. Both colder in all respects 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow_wizard Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 0.81" of rain IMBY in the last two weeks. Really dry since the early month downpour. Quote Death To Warm Anomalies! Winter 2023-24 stats Total Snowfall = 1.0" Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1 Total Hail = 0.0 Total Ice = 0.2 Coldest Low = 13 Lows 32 or below = 50 Highs 32 or below = 3 Lows 20 or below = 3 Highs 40 or below = 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 Combination of in-situ W-Canada torch and transient nature of the pattern stacks odds against a significant lowland event even if the pattern verifies as modeled (which is certainly not a given in of itself). Given westerly momentum deposition in the subtropics, it will be very easy for any GOA block to pinch off well before any worthwhile airmass establishes in W-Canada (will take time to scour out the mega-torch) let alone getting a cold airmass to advect southward. I want to ride the party train instead of being the most hated individual on the forum but f***ing hell, man, I still don’t see it. So many failure modes. 1 1 2 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 Just saw the final tally for the Canadian wildfire season. 45,590,000 acres burned. 2 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 4 minutes ago, Phil said: Combination of in-situ W-Canada torch and transient nature of the pattern stacks odds against a significant lowland event even if the pattern verifies as modeled (which is certainly not a given in of itself). Given westerly momentum deposition in the subtropics, it will be very easy for any GOA block to pinch off well before any worthwhile airmass establishes in W-Canada (will take time to scour out the mega-torch) let alone getting a cold airmass to advect southward. I want to ride the party train instead of being the most hated individual on the forum, but f***ing hell, man, I still don’t see it. Sooooo many failure modes. Don’t really need an arctic blast to get a decent snowstorm this time of year. A little continental influence with offshore flow and a system undercutting a pinched off block would probably do the trick for someone. 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 11 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Don’t really need an arctic blast to get a decent snowstorm this time of year. A little continental influence with offshore flow and a system undercutting a pinched off block would probably do the trick for someone. Phil doesn’t understand Pacific Northwest weather. 1 1 1 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Phil said: Combination of in-situ W-Canada torch and transient nature of the pattern stacks odds against a significant lowland event even if the pattern verifies as modeled (which is certainly not a given in of itself). Given westerly momentum deposition in the subtropics, it will be very easy for any GOA block to pinch off well before any worthwhile airmass establishes in W-Canada (will take time to scour out the mega-torch) let alone getting a cold airmass to advect southward. I want to ride the party train instead of being the most hated individual on the forum but f***ing hell, man, I still don’t see it. So many failure modes. Cope, it’s coming. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 9 minutes ago, MossMan said: Phil doesn’t understand Pacific Northwest weather. Haha. Sounds like he’s over thinking it a bit now. It’s not that hard to get a few days of wintery weather here. Even in a Nino. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 Extended EPS. 7 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlTahoe Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Front Ranger said: I hope you're right...need a lot more Tahoe snow by mid January! This is my first non white Christmas ever in Tahoe. Moved here in 2010 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RentonHill Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said: Haha. Sounds like he’s over thinking it a bit now. It’s not that hard to get a few days of wintery weather here. Even in a Nino. I'd rather have a major storm/overrunning event where the snow only lasts a day than last year's 30 days of flurries but nothing significant stacked up. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 Low of 27F and currently 36F with light rain. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 Snowing again and 35 degrees, I'm impressed 4 1 2 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 3 hours ago, Phil said: I mean there were multiple dry streaks. Worst was in the 1990s and two chunks of the 2000s. But hard not to call this a hot streak. PNW can do very well *without* a SSW during +QBO/Niña (and sometimes +QBO/neutral) due to the straight-arrow connection to the Aleutian ridge. But strong El Niño and solar maximum are usually highly productive for the the NW Half of North America. The mature -QBO offers more subseasonal variability midwinter via MJO/MC connection, and in a winter like this, you do not need a SSW for subseasonal variability to overpower Niño/LP signal. Without a major SSW, it'll be fine. No need to completely overwhelm what is a very weakly coupled base state..wouldn't take an extraordinarily high amplitude MJO/SS orbit. And that'll probably happen anyways. Hard to overstate how guaranteed this is for you guys. Not impossible, but everything would have to go wrong to screw this one up. ftfy 1 1 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Cats Meow Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 Winter may come to the Central and Eastern parts of the US in January. Will the PNW get clipped for a few days of winter fun? Fingers crossed. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 Had a few random snowflakes here. Sky is bright again now. My sister and family in town from San Diego were pretty happy to see snowflakes on Christmas Eve. But they have had many truly white Christmases at our house over the last 20 years. 4 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 51 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: ftfy On some other earth in another dimension this is true. Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 Memories! It was just beginning a few hours from now 2yrs ago. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 hour ago, MossMan said: Phil doesn’t understand Pacific Northwest weather. 1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said: Cope, it’s coming. 1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said: Haha. Sounds like he’s over thinking it a bit now. It’s not that hard to get a few days of wintery weather here. Even in a Nino. I’m fully prepared to be the forum’s punching bag for the next 2-3 months. But no worries, I still love you all the same. 5 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 Through back to last white Christmas, 2017. Don’t live there anymore. 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said: Through back to last white Christmas, 2017. Purrty. Hasn’t snowed on Christmas Eve here since 2004 IIRC. Such a rarity, it’s a once or twice in a lifetime kind of thing. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 18z GFS pulls back on the SSW, no more quick wave-2/split. Might just be a blip. 1 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 "Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian_in_Leavenworth Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 White Christmas is saved in Leavenworth. Expecting 4-6" during the day and evening tomorrow. Actually we've had close to normal snowfall for December as of the 24th. Two storms over a foot each are what had made December snowfall close to normal, plus a couple of smaller storms and what's coming tomorrow will make it normal. However, the warm temps have melted most of it, so it seems as if snowfall is below normal. Snowcover is for sure below normal though. Will be nice to see snowfall during Christmas day. About the 3rd Christmas in a row with snow falling during the day. Mostly in the afternoon, but it's still nice. 6 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post HuskyMaestro Posted December 24, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 Happy Christmas Eve folks! May we get a pepto Euro map for the whole PNW under our tree that verifies this winter! 10 Quote 𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘺 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘭𝘦𝘴𝘴 𝘥𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘮𝘴, 𝘐 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘰𝘸𝘯. 𝘗𝘶𝘺𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘶𝘱. Reddit: HotlineMaestro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 33rd year in a row without a white Christmas for EUG. Probly the most due location in the PNW at this point. Extremely depressing. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MWG Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 39F and light rain 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 8 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: 33rd year in a row without a white Christmas for EUG. Probly the most due location in the PNW at this point. Extremely depressing. 33 that’s awful Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said: 33 that’s awful Yup. 10 years since our last coupled Arctic airmass too. I’m going to assume it’s one of the longest stretches we’ve gone. Plus only 1 sub freezing high since Jan 2017. The rapid warming trend here is alarming. Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Yup. 10 years since our last coupled Arctic airmass too. I’m going to assume it’s one of the longest stretches we’ve gone. Plus only 1 sub freezing high since Jan 2017. The rapid warming trend here is alarming. That was the year you had a big snowstorm in Eugene right? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TigerWoodsLibido Posted December 24, 2023 Author Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said: That was the year you had a big snowstorm in Eugene right? The biggest one here in my life was the 2-25-19 event. 20" in 72 hours. Actually got up to 34F on those days. 1 Quote Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats: Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024) Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024) Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024) Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024) Total snowfall: 0.0" Total ice: 2.25” Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9") Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F) Last White Christmas: 1990 Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0 Personal Stats: Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F) Last White Christmas: 2008 Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0" Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4 Venmo GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2 My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 24, 2023 Report Share Posted December 24, 2023 Tossing the druncle in the trash. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted December 25, 2023 Report Share Posted December 25, 2023 For the record, Phil has given us full permission to unleash post react hell unto every negative thing he says. I (and he) expect no less than TWENTY weiners per post. He still loves us after all, right? 4 2 1 1 2 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 25, 2023 Report Share Posted December 25, 2023 GEFS actually turned out decent somehow. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iFred Posted December 25, 2023 Report Share Posted December 25, 2023 12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: For the record, Dr Phillip, PhD in Initialism Meteorology, has given us full permission to unleash post react hell unto every negative thing he says. I (and he) expect no less than TWENTY weiners per post. He still loves us after all, right? Fixed it. 1 1 1 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AbbyJr Posted December 25, 2023 Report Share Posted December 25, 2023 8 hours ago, Phil said: I mean there were multiple dry streaks. Worst was in the 1990s and two chunks of the 2000s. But hard not to call this a hot streak. PNW can do very will *without* a SSW during +QBO/Niña (and sometimes +QBO/neutral) due to the straight-arrow connection to the Aleutian ridge. But strong El Niño and solar maximum are usually brutal for the the NW Half of North America. The mature -QBO offers more subseasonal variability midwinter via MJO/MC connection, but in a winter like this, you will need a SSW for subseasonal variability to overpower Niño/LP signal. Without a major SSW, there’s no chance up there. Need to completely overwhelm what is a very well coupled base state..will take an extraordinarily high amplitude MJO/SS orbit. And that won’t happen without a SSW destabilizing the deep tropics in such a way that beefs of the MJO. Hard to overstate how much of a challenge this will be. Not impossible, but everything has to go right. Both 1990/91 (neutral/+QBO) and 2008/09 (weak La Niña/+QBO) were epic winters in the PNW that produced without a SSW event. I should add that 2006/07 was also really good in the PNW and I don't think there was a SSW event. While it was an El Niño, it was a weak event so that probably helped. But it was also a +QBO, which is not ideal in an El Niño. So there must have been other factors that contributed to the El Niño acting more like a neutral/La Niña that winter. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Snap Posted December 25, 2023 Report Share Posted December 25, 2023 Ended up with a low of 27 this morning. Nice to see on Christmas Eve. 1 Quote 2024 Warm Season Stats Number of 80+ days - 2 Number of 85+ days - 2 (Warmest so far - 86) Number of 90+ days - 0 Number of 95+ days - 0 Number of 60+ lows - 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 25, 2023 Report Share Posted December 25, 2023 Looks like it might get pretty windy for northern and coastal areas tomorrow. Maybe a quick pressure rise tomorrow night with a westerly surge of wind down the strait. 3 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Gradient Keeper Posted December 25, 2023 Popular Post Report Share Posted December 25, 2023 Merry Christmas 12/24/23 7:16 pm I want to wish everyone a very merry, safe, and blessed Christmas! If you are traveling to or from family or friends this today or tomorrow, please do so safely. Absolutely no drinking and driving! I'm serious. Don't make me come over there and put my Santa foot down! I'll do it! Okay then. Merry Christmas! 16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted December 25, 2023 Report Share Posted December 25, 2023 Air pressure dropped below 960mb in Anchorage this morning. 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted December 25, 2023 Report Share Posted December 25, 2023 16 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said: Merry Christmas 12/24/23 7:16 pm I want to wish everyone a very merry, safe, and blessed Christmas! If you are traveling to or from family or friends this today or tomorrow, please do so safely. Absolutely no drinking and driving! I'm serious. Don't make me come over there and put my Santa foot down! I'll do it! Okay then. Merry Christmas! Colder runs ahead? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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