December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Gradient Keeper]

Canadian ensembles looking pretty decent at just Day 9'er

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

HOT DOG

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

That's pretty awesome. Objectively speaking. 

[snow_wizard]

Real potential coming up.  Good run to run improvement on the EPS.

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Here is my contribution to the political discussion.

What's next? A probe into why Trump isn't the same shade of orange that he used to be? The fact he's gone from Tangerine to a mix of Squash/Apricot?

Choose below the shade(s) of orange you feel best represents Mr. Trump now!
Dark Orange, Orange-Red, Vivid Orange, Tomato, Metallic Orange, Pumpkin, Smashed Pumpkin, Yellow-Orange, Carrot Orange, International Orange, Spanish Orange, Tangerine, Princeton Orange, Deep Saffron, Alloy Orange, Halloween Orange, Tangelo, Gamboge, Vermilion, Fulvous, Pastel Orange, Flame, Beer Orange, Royal Orange, Coral, Papaya Whip, Rajah, Burnt Umber, Bittersweet, Persimmon, Bumblebee Orange.

6z GFS in 3 hours 24 minutes

[Deweydog]

I already told my stepdad’s cat.

[snow_wizard]

First EPS run in this sequence to have some members go below 20 for SEA.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

TOUCHDOWN!!!

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

TOUCHDOWN!!!

I posted the snow map earlier.  You get nailed on this run.

[Cold Snap]

Models are looking great tonight. Hopefully this trend can continue!

[AlTahoe]

Yikes. models now go to mid Jan and we are still waiting on our first storm of the winter. So much for enhanced Stj, El Nino etc. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

5 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yikes. models now go to mid Jan and we are still waiting on our first storm of the winter. So much for enhanced Stj, El Nino etc. 

 

I heard last year was a gift at least. 

[AlTahoe]

35 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I heard last year was a gift at least. 

Yep. Just funny that last year the seasonal models all had us dry and warm and it was wet and the coldest since 1978. This year's seasonal models all had us wet and it is now historically dry. I think the seasonal model forecast are essentially useless.

[Phil]

I can see the DCA sensor from my window. It’s literally surrounded by dark asphalt.  

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yep. Just funny that last year the seasonal models all had us dry and warm and it was wet and the coldest since 1978. This year's seasonal models all had us wet and it is now historically dry. I think the seasonal model forecast are essentially useless.

Shh you’re not supposed to say that.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

20 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yep. Just funny that last year the seasonal models all had us dry and warm and it was wet and the coldest since 1978. This year's seasonal models all had us wet and it is now historically dry. I think the seasonal model forecast are essentially useless.

Bet you get a March miracle down there. Alas, it still means you spend most of the winter without much snow.

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

Yikes. models now go to mid Jan and we are still waiting on our first storm of the winter. So much for enhanced Stj, El Nino etc. 

 

Interesting that the CPC has a different outlook, at least for week 2.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Interesting that the CPC has a different outlook, at least for week 2.

CPC is behind

[Rubus Leucodermis]

3 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Interesting that the CPC has a different outlook, at least for week 2.

Worrisome that the PNW is no longer safely in the orange. Things seem to be slipping.

May have to settle for posting Kuchera snowfall maps instead of torchy max temperature maps. Guess I will just have to cope.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Another mild morning. 

[Front Ranger]

57 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Yep. Just funny that last year the seasonal models all had us dry and warm and it was wet and the coldest since 1978. This year's seasonal models all had us wet and it is now historically dry. I think the seasonal model forecast are essentially useless.

Phil has also been banging the wet CA drum this year. 

[FroYoBro]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Another mild morning. 

Have you sobered up?

[Slushy Inch]

11 minutes ago, FroYoBro said:

Have you sobered up?

I think he was off his meds last night

[AlTahoe]

55 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Bet you get a March miracle down there. Alas, it still means you spend most of the winter without much snow.

Yeah if the heart of winter is shutdown then we usually get something in spring. 2017-2018 is a good example 39" Oct - 1st week of March and then 102" in the final 3 weeks of March. 

[AlTahoe]

22 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil has also been banging the wet CA drum this year. 

And the southwest in general. 

[RentonHill]

[Slushy Inch]

First troughs miss and hit CA but cold definitely arrives.

[Phil]

29 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Phil has also been banging the wet CA drum this year. 

I think it’s just a slow start. There’ll be some STJ with the +EPO/+NPO pattern coming up 2nd/3rd week of January (brief throwback to last January?) but I’ve been wrong before.

I am starting to get excited about nor’easter prospects out here starting in late January. Pieces are starting to line up nicely w/ subseasonal forcings constructively interfering w/ LP/ENSO, similarly to 1983 in some respects. If all goes well, kudos to you on the bullish forecast. I didn’t have the guts to go there.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I think it’s just a slow start. There’ll be some STJ with the +EPO/+NPO pattern coming up 2nd/3rd week of January (brief throwback to last January?) but I’ve been wrong before.

I am starting to get excited about nor’easter prospects out here starting in late January. Pieces are starting to line up nicely, similarly to 1983 in some respects. If all goes well, kudos to you on the bullish forecast. I didn’t have the guts to do it.

Actually I’m looking at the PHIL index and it says no nor’easters ever again.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Not a bad GFS run. Might be the best we can do. 

[RentonHill]

Phoenix might get snow before we do

[Phil]

6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Actually I’m looking at the PHIL index and it says no nor’easters ever again.

 At least I got my SLUSHY INCH this month. By last winter’s standards that’s a huge W.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

10 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

First troughs miss and hit CA but cold definitely arrives.

Nice donut hole of near normal temperature in the southern Willamette Valley. Someone's going to be pleased about that.

[AlTahoe]

12 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think it’s just a slow start. There’ll be some STJ with the +EPO/+NPO pattern coming up 2nd/3rd week of January (brief throwback to last January?) but I’ve been wrong before.

I am starting to get excited about nor’easter prospects out here starting in late January. Pieces are starting to line up nicely w/ subseasonal forcings constructively interfering w/ LP/ENSO, similarly to 1983 in some respects. If all goes well, kudos to you on the bullish forecast. I didn’t have the guts to go there.

We need somebody to score this winter. The winter picture posting has been seriously lacking. 

[Phil]

This turbulence is rough. Worst I’ve experienced since the descent into DCA during in an arctic cold front passage in 2014.

[AlTahoe]

Sure Gfs

[Phil]

Ugh this is gonna undo the pain relief from the corticosteroid injection. I feel like a rag doll.

[Phil]

11 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We need somebody to score this winter. The winter picture posting has been seriously lacking. 

I think you and Flatiron will be the first to score. Actually I think he’s already scored but will prob score again. Then maybe me?

Unless the +EPO stretch is marginally cold enough for someone like @Brian_in_Leavenworth to score a slush bomb beforehand.