December 2023 Weather in the PNW

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

We need somebody to score this winter. The winter picture posting has been seriously lacking. 

I got half an inch of slush earlier this month!

[Snownerd3000]

6 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

Sure Gfs

[Phil]

2 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Shows a Scandinavian ridge at the end of the run too. Which has been impossible to pull off this winter, so it has to be wrong.

[Phishy Wx]

[Slushy Inch]

[TT-SEA]

8 years ago this morning... also during a Nino winter.  

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think you and Flatiron will be the first to score. Actually I think he’s already scored but will prob score again. Then maybe me?

Unless the +EPO stretch is marginally cold enough for someone like @Brian_in_Leavenworth to score a slush bomb beforehand.

Normal temps are enough for me. Colder is nice too, but we don't need colder anomalies until late January, and even then only a couple of degrees below normal.  We average 94" of snow every year 

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think you and Front Ranger will be the first to score. Actually I think he’s already scored but will prob score again. Then maybe me?

Unless the +EPO stretch is marginally cold enough for someone like @Brian_in_Leavenworth to score a slush bomb beforehand.

I've done ok so far this cold season, all things considered. Torched most of the time just like everyone else, but had 7" of snow in October, 5" in November, and will finish December with 6" thanks to a surprise 3" a couple nights ago while I was out of town.

So 18" on the season so far...that's about 10" below normal for this point in the season, but still better than many places.

The mountains here are not doing very well. And of course, the lady and I and a good friend all bought ski passes this year.

[ShawniganLake]

23 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I got half an inch of slush earlier this month!

We had the big slush bomb over here back in October.  6Z had another big slush bomb for southern BC around day 9-10.  Common slush bomb   

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

25 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think you and Flatiron will be the first to score. Actually I think he’s already scored but will prob score again. Then maybe me?

Unless the +EPO stretch is marginally cold enough for someone like @Brian_in_Leavenworth to score a slush bomb beforehand.

And despite overall warm temps in December, we have had more than 30 inches this month.  Much has melted, so the snow cover is lower than normal.

[RentonHill]

[Phishy Wx]

11 minutes ago, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Normal temps are enough for me. Colder is nice too, but we don't need colder anomalies until late January, and even then only a couple of degrees below normal.  We average 94" of snow every year 

similar story here, normal early jan temps and  abundant moisture should translate to decent snows

[RentonHill]

Isnt that part of how 2019 worked out? Not much of an AK ridge but the NAO did most of the work with the trough retroing?

[MossMan]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

I think you and Flatiron will be the first to score. Actually I think he’s already scored but will prob score again. Then maybe me?

Unless the +EPO stretch is marginally cold enough for someone like @Brian_in_Leavenworth to score a slush bomb beforehand.

Another example of you not knowing our climate. Brian has been doing well in the snow department…Not like last few years but still has had nice snowfalls…And will continue to do so this winter. 

[MossMan]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

8 years ago this morning... also during a Nino winter.  

I had a little snow the day before! 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

CPC is behind

Yesterday's ensemble runs that this is based off of shows the jetstream aimed at the NW.  Nothing remarkable but not dry at all.  

[Front Ranger]

At least you have something to track next week, @AlTahoe. Not looking amazing, but it's a start.

[Meatyorologist]

From what I am reading online, the best dynamics for western troughing this winter will show up around the 5th-15th, while the best Arctic air doesn't arrive until the back half of the month.

If we were to split the vortex (20% of ensemble members are still depicting a wind reversal and split vortex, so a reverse trend is possible), such a more violent event could dislodge Arctic air from the deep Arctic a little sooner, allowing us in the PNW to take advantage slightly earlier before the best dynamics for troughing slide east later in the month. With a weak/damaged but still intact vortex, cold air will need to be coaxed into the US for a little longer, which may lead us to miss out when it finally does come crashing south.

@Phil am I getting this right?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

From what I am reading online, the best dynamics for western troughing this winter will show up around the 5th-15th, while the best Arctic air doesn't arrive until the back half of the month.

If we were to split the vortex (20% of ensemble members are still depicting a wind reversal and split vortex, so a reverse trend is possible), such a more violent event could dislodge Arctic air from the deep Arctic a little sooner, allowing us in the PNW to take advantage slightly earlier before the best dynamics for troughing slide east later in the month. With a weak/damaged but still intact vortex, cold air will need to be coaxed into the US for a little longer, which may lead us to miss out when it finally does come crashing south.

@Phil am I getting this right?

Yeah, my thinking is the motherlode is later in the month. We might get clipped. 

[Meatyorologist]

12z GFS BLESSES the northern fringe of the country with an impressive polar lobe at the end of the run. Highs around -10F for most of ND.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

14 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

At least you have something to track next week, @AlTahoe. Not looking amazing, but it's a start.

Higher altitudes only. Looks more like a late October map than an early January one.

[AlTahoe]

22 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

At least you have something to track next week, @AlTahoe. Not looking amazing, but it's a start.

True. Unfortunately the models are trending towards a split in the system so Nws Reno has us at 0-2" I am betting on zero as it won't make it over the crest. But if we get 2" it will double my seasonal total so far

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah, my thinking is the motherlode is later in the month. We might get clipped. 

Yeah, I'm thinking maritime cold in the PNW 5th-15th, while rising heights in the Arctic slowly build an impressive cold pool in Canada. 15th-30th, western ridge blows up, -NAO and -AO take firm hold. Western ridge dislodges Canadian trough deep into the eastern 2/3rds of the country (honestly probably gonna get real ugly cold for the midwest.) If we're lucky ridging doesn't fully prograde into the west early on and we get clipped with an easterly BACKdoor BLAST

[Meatyorologist]

4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

True. Unfortunately the models are trending towards a split in the system so Nws Reno has us at 0-2" I am betting on zero as it won't make it over the crest. But if we get 2" it will double my seasonal total so far

The push and pull of the Kali Klimate has got to be frustrating

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Yeah, I'm thinking maritime cold in the PNW 5th-15th, while rising heights in the Arctic slowly build an impressive cold pool in Canada. 15th-30th, western ridge blows up, -NAO and -AO take firm hold. Western ridge dislodges Canadian trough deep into the eastern 2/3rds of the country (honestly probably gonna get real ugly cold for the midwest.) If we're lucky ridging doesn't fully prograde into the west early on and we get clipped with an easterly BACKdoor BLAST

I think SLE has a legit chance at scoring their first low in the teens since January 2017. Much lower chance they see snow. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

This doesn't suck!

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think SLE has a legit chance at scoring their first low in the teens since January 2017. Much lower chance they see snow. 

This is some whonderful wheather whisdom we're discussing, whandrew. The kind of diskushion that only comes from years of observing our region's klimate. Fill wouldn't understand...

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Yeah, I'm thinking maritime cold in the PNW 5th-15th, while rising heights in the Arctic slowly build an impressive cold pool in Canada. 15th-30th, western ridge blows up, -NAO and -AO take firm hold. Western ridge dislodges Canadian trough deep into the eastern 2/3rds of the country (honestly probably gonna get real ugly cold for the midwest.) If we're lucky ridging doesn't fully prograde into the west early on and we get clipped with an easterly BACKdoor BLAST

yep, and I think this gives a 'window of opp' around 1/28-2/9 ish as well.  also a huge northeast blizzard/noreasta around then

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

This is some whonderful wheather whisdom we're discussing, whandrew. The kind of diskushion that only comes from years of observing our region's klimate. Fill wouldn't understand...

I could very easily see a pattern as shown on the 12z GFS producing some respectably cold lows. High temps would probably be into the 40s at most airport stations. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Massive run to run improvement. 

[Phil]

48 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Another example of you not knowing our climate. Brian has been doing well in the snow department…Not like last few years but still has had nice snowfalls…And will continue to do so this winter. 

You sound salty.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I could very easily see a pattern as shown on the 12z GFS producing some respectably cold lows. High temps would probably be into the 40s at most airport stations. 

Dry advecting into some 47/22 type days would be a nice win. I've been meaning to take more clear air shots with my Canon, maybe even test out its capabilities with long exposure shots at night.

[Phil]

38 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

From what I am reading online, the best dynamics for western troughing this winter will show up around the 5th-15th, while the best Arctic air doesn't arrive until the back half of the month.

If we were to split the vortex (20% of ensemble members are still depicting a wind reversal and split vortex, so a reverse trend is possible), such a more violent event could dislodge Arctic air from the deep Arctic a little sooner, allowing us in the PNW to take advantage slightly earlier before the best dynamics for troughing slide east later in the month. With a weak/damaged but still intact vortex, cold air will need to be coaxed into the US for a little longer, which may lead us to miss out when it finally does come crashing south.

@Phil am I getting this right?

Flight landing but I’ll get back to you on this.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

Flight landing but I’ll get back to you on this.

Appreciated the play by play of your flight. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Dry advecting into some 47/22 type days would be a nice win. I've been meaning to take more clear air shots with my Canon, maybe even test out its capabilities with long exposure shots at night.

Given there could actually be cold air aloft we could do pretty well here… had a 33/14 at the end of last January, so a nice dry chilly airmass can do wonders. It’s just so rare. 

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Appreciated the play by play of your flight. 

Landing was uneventful.

[Kayla]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

I think you and Flatiron will be the first to score. Actually I think he’s already scored but will prob score again. Then maybe me?

Unless the +EPO stretch is marginally cold enough for someone like @Brian_in_Leavenworth to score a slush bomb beforehand.

What about me...?

[AlTahoe]

21 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The push and pull of the Kali Klimate has got to be frustrating

It used to be more normalish. This season will make 9 out of 13 being drought years with a couple huge seasons mixed in. We used to get 2 duds, 2 or 3 big ones and 4 or 6 normalish years every decade. 

[RentonHill]

12z Yurro Day NEW-EH-VAY

 

[Kayla]

First day above freezing here since the 22nd. Currently 36F.

Models are definitely looking a bit more promising for the week of Jan 7th-15th. At this point though I really don't care if we get some Arctic air or not, we just really need some snow in the area.