January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part I)

[RaleighHillsRunner]

Blizzaks went on today with a trip to the foothills on tap. Hopefully I’ll be needing them around town by next weekend.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Godspeed folks up north that would have to deal with that ice storm shit.

[Christensen87]

Come on GFS, stop ending the fun so early. Keep it going! 

[Corncob]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Thing about tornadoes is you have no idea if one will impact you until it’s basically right there. Can’t really say that about any other weather phenomena…and tornadoes are also the most likely to kill you if you encounter one. Worst of the worst.

Tornados are hell, but flash floods are the most deadly weather phenomenon, I believe.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At hour 144 GEFS still looking improved. 

 

[Mid Valley Duck]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At hour 144 GEFS still looking improved. 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Already an inch more snow on the GFS ensemble.

[Phishy Wx]

its decent but still the GFS.  good to see it getting with the program and looking more like the euro and gem

[Slushy Inch]

2 hrs until 18z euro

[HuskyMaestro]

Just got out of class and there's been 10 new pages since I saw how good the Euro went, did the GFS cave in?

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Williams lake to Bellingham pressure gradient at one point is over 30mb. The outflow Thursday night would be dangerous.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

At the end of the day if something like the 18z GFS verified it would be the highlight of almost any winter. 

[Phishy Wx]

Round One WWA:   Have a feeling i'm gunna being seeing more of these.  would really love a WSW or Blizzard warning later next week

 

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY

ISSUED: 1:41 PM JAN. 4, 2024 – NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 4 AM PST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations between 2 and 3
inches, locally up to 4 inches.

* WHERE...Post Falls, Downtown Spokane, Davenport, Cheney, Airway
Heights, Fairfield, Hayden, Worley, Rockford, Coeur d'Alene, and
Spokane Valley.

* WHEN...From 10 PM Friday to 4 AM PST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

 

[RentonHill]

[Requiem]

Absolutely nasty setup for the WV and metro area as far as ice goes 

[umadbro]

Timing seems to be moving up.

[SnarkyGoblin]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At the end of the day if something like the 18z GFS verified it would be the highlight of almost any winter. 

Certainly not for the central Puget Sound folks.  I'm not interested in just cold. 

The shadowing is real in many of these runs.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

At the end of the day if something like the 18z GFS verified it would be the highlight of almost any winter. 

It’s unlikely but if trough gets a little more west than on Euro and goes slower we could get a lot more snow. Plus more surface low development

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, umadbro said:

Timing seems to be moving up.

One of the colder mid range runs we’ve seen so farr.

[sherwoodor]

1 minute ago, Requiem said:

Absolutely nasty setup for the WV and metro area as far as ice goes 

our typical luck...

10 to 3 days in advance: snow, snow, snow! ITS COMING!
3 to 1 days in advance: well... there's still a possibility of a marginal event
T -24hrs: its ******* ZR

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

One of the colder mid range runs we’ve seen so farr.

1989 set the barr.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

It’s unlikely but if trough gets a little more west than on Euro and goes slower we could get a lot more snow. Plus more surface low development

Don't want things to trend to far west either though... 

[Deweydog]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

1989 set the barr.

They’d make millions if they sold it in a jarr.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Don't want things to trend to far west either though... 

I think that’s pretty unlikely. Still working on getting things away from too far east 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

They’d make millions if they sold it in a jarr.

Hell ya, pack it up and i'll deliver it in a carr. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Significantly better for western Oregon and the region.

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Hell ya, pack it up and i'll deliver it in a carr. 

If it trends east it will leave an emotional scarr.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

2" more snow than on the morning ensemble.

[SnowySeeker50]

Blue getting darker

[TT-SEA]

If this follows recent lead up to events in the past 3 or 4 years... we will see a model pull back in the 5 day range and then it will slowly move back to what it shows now at 7 days out as the event approaches.   Seems to be fairly predictable lately.  

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SnowySeeker50 said:

Blue getting darker

Really should be final color by now

[Christensen87]

Ugh, I just can’t get fully onboard until CFS shows something promising. It’s basically in lockstep with the GFS. Same thing happened last year, and I believe Euro eventually caved to the GFS. That’s why I’m still a bit worried. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

If this follows recent lead up to events in the past 3 or 4 years... we will see a model pull back in the 5 day range and then it will slowly move back to what it shows now at 7 days out as the event approaches.   Seems to be fairly predictable lately.  

Usually it’s us hoping euro goes in the direct or crazy gfs. Feels good that it’s the other way around this time 

[Randyc321]

12 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Certainly not for the central Puget Sound folks.  I'm not interested in just cold. 

The shadowing is real in many of these runs.

...and probably overstated.  Also too early to worry about that.  Can't get the white stuff without the cold.

[SouthHillFrosty]

2 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

...and probably overstated.  Also too early to worry about that.  Can't get the white stuff without the cold.

I think the shadowing is real. However, i believe the map will fill in more and have a more traditional shadowing over south puget sound (if the track comes in from the NW). Also, those artic squall lines are so unpredictable when it happens. We got 9in down in the swamp in 2019 from one I believe.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

I think the shadowing is real. However, i believe the map will fill in more and have a more traditional shadowing over south puget sound (if the track comes in from the NW). Also, those artic squall lines are so unpredictable when it happens. We got 9in down in the swamp in 2019 from one I believe.

No doubt... arctic boundaries are almost always much snowier than the models show.  

[BLI snowman]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If this follows recent lead up to events in the past 3 or 4 years... we will see a model pull back in the 5 day range and then it will slowly move back to what it shows now at 7 days out as the event approaches.   Seems to be fairly predictable lately.  

If the Euro is showing what it shows now in a week, then I will personally pay for your next Tri-Cities getaway....

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

If the Euro is showing what it shows now in a week, then I will personally pay for your next Tri-Cities getaway....

Its been a long time... summers have been way too warm lately for those trips! 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

16 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If it trends east it will leave an emotional scarr.

Well, i guess that would be right on parr.

[Kolk1604]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If this follows recent lead up to events in the past 3 or 4 years... we will see a model pull back in the 5 day range and then it will slowly move back to what it shows now at 7 days out as the event approaches.   Seems to be fairly predictable lately.  

I wasn't a model nerd back then, but is 2008 an exception to that rule? And you would think that would change with time and all these upgrades.