1/8-1/10 Panhandle Hook

[Hawkeye]

I'd say the 12z HRRR is a bit over-juiced.

[Clinton]

SE trend continues

[ATW]

2 minutes ago, Clinton said:

SE trend continues

Definitely more models have increased our totals since yesterday. The short range models were absolutely horrible for us yesterday. Are they struggling with thermals or track of the low itself? This system has been wild so far

[buzzman289]

22 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I'd say the 12z HRRR is a bit over-juiced.

Lock it in lol

 

[East Dubzz]

Did not expect to see 8-12" forecasted, but I'll take it.

• Snowblower running - check 
• Salt purchased - check 
• Shovel(s) located - check 
• TV working for the national championship tonight - check 
• Cold beer - check 
• Fully stocked whiskey - check 

LETS RIDE. 

[KTPmidMO]

Big south trend on NAM and NAM 3Km with 12z run?

[Clinton]

18 minutes ago, ATW said:

Definitely more models have increased our totals since yesterday. The short range models were absolutely horrible for us yesterday. Are they struggling with thermals or track of the low itself? This system has been wild so far

Struggling with both.  I'm just going to sit back and watch.  I expect little but won't be surprised by more.

[tStacsh]

5 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

Did not expect to see 8-12" forecasted, but I'll take it.

• Snowblower running - check 
• Salt purchased - check 
• Shovel(s) located - check 
• TV working for the national championship tonight - check 
• Cold beer - check 
• Fully stocked whiskey - check 

LETS RIDE. 

I took tomorrow off because of the game tonight.  I'm a big Michigan fan.  Go blue!    Unfortunately I'm riding the line between rain/snow.  Should get a couple inches on the front end of this though.  

[Clinton]

12z NAMs

[Money]

Almost 10 inches..Not bad! 

[mlgamer]

Temp has been holding at 37.6 at my house this morning with rain at times. Radar suggests a transition to snow could be occurring soon but still rain here. Just hope the dynamic cooling kicks in and keeping an eye on the dry slot for now.

Looks like lots of folks on the sub are going to cash in on this one, so good luck to everyone!

[Clinton]

Further east

[KTPmidMO]

6 minutes ago, Clinton said:

12z NAMs

Much further south here in missouri. Have to watch temp profiles and radar as its happening to see if this will verify or not.

[Clinton]

Just now, KTPmidMO said:

Much further south here in missouri. Have to watch temp profiles and radar as its happening to see if this will verify or not.

Agreed.  Good luck to everyone 

[Hawkeye]

FV3 is southeast as well, much better for KC.  In general, models are also dropping totals across northern Iowa.

[East Dubzz]

I ain't scared of a little wobble before the storm. These models don't account for the East Dubzz factor. We're gonna get hit good. 

[Jayhawker85]

8 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Further east

Is it possible the GFS was correct the whole time keeping the southern route?!!

This is like a Chiefs playoff game with 2 minutes to go with Mahomes with the ball

[ATW]

25 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Struggling with both.  I'm just going to sit back and watch.  I expect little but won't be surprised by more.

Sounds good. Been fun tracking this one. 

[ATW]

14 minutes ago, East Dubzz said:

I ain't scared of a little wobble before the storm. These models don't account for the East Dubzz factor. We're gonna get hit good. 

The East Dubzz factor is real! Good luck. Wish I was up there to experience it.

[Black Hole]

We are in the "warm" sector here with decent rains moving through this morning. A bit gusty too. Everything looks on track for rain with an isolated thunder into the afternoon before breaking up.

CAMs showing a few weak snow showers tomorrow morning, mostly to my east, but perhaps I can get a tenth of an inch of snow if I am lucky as it clears out. 

[ATW]

13 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

Is it possible the GFS was correct the whole time keeping the southern route?!!

This is like a Chiefs playoff game with 2 minutes to go with Mahomes with the ball

I’m not buying it. I think you could Almost shave off the lower half of the snow shield in especially Missouri and be closer to reality. You’re in a better spot than me though

[CentralNebWeather]

Heavy snow falling. 1.0-1.5” approximately so far. Has some graupel in it. We still have snow in most yards and some small drifts and piles from post Christmas storm.  
We will transition to drier snow as the temperature drops this afternoon. That’s when the 50 mph winds and blizzard conditions ramp up. Enjoy. 

[bud2380]

HRRR shows 7" of snow falling in Iowa City between 6am and noon tomorrow.

[KTPmidMO]

Does anyone have a good radar that they use? Want something that reflects good. What does everyone use?

[Hawkeye]

5 minutes ago, KTPmidMO said:

Does anyone have a good radar that they use? Want something that reflects good. What does everyone use?

COD

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?parms=EAX-N0Q-1-12-100-usa-rad

[CentralNebWeather]

[Tom]

Current situation…Winter Wonderland!

 

 

 

[gimmesnow]

Quote

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling.

If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in
your vehicle in case of an emergency.

Oh sweet, that's my cue to drive 90 miles to a ski hill

[Grizzcoat]

Have to be honest- HRRR and RAP have me nervous, they have initial surge as -RA, which eats into snow totals. NWS basically discounted this in the AFD, but man, never know for sure until it's happening.

ICON is not wavering here in Iowa- but gives MO peeps more snow.

 

[Iowawx]

1 hour ago, Hawkeye said:

I'd say the 12z HRRR is a bit over-juiced.

What is your prediction for snowfall in CR?

[Hawkeye]

4 minutes ago, Iowawx said:

What is your prediction for snowfall in CR?

I've learned to be conservative.  I'm discounting the higher end of the range being pushed by the NWS and local mets.  I'll go with 6-8" for Cedar Rapids.

[bud2380]

4 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I've learned to be conservative.  I'm discounting the higher end of the range being pushed by the NWS and local mets.  I'll go with 6-8" for Cedar Rapids.

I also lean more conservative, unless we get one of those ideal situations where the flake size is large and can accumulate rapidly.  Not sure if that will be the case with this one or not. With winds expected to be fairly strong, flake size will likely be cut down, which could reduce snow totals as well.  I think 6-8" is a good call, but to be an optimist and differ slightly, I'll go 7-9".

[BMT]

6 minutes ago, Hawkeye said:

I've learned to be conservative.  I'm discounting the higher end of the range being pushed by the NWS and local mets.  I'll go with 6-8" for Cedar Rapids.

This.  its just nice to have those totals be toward the bottom of guidance for once so we hopefully have a safe floor with this one.  

[CentralNebWeather]

Big ole dry slot in South Central Kansas. Where does it go?  Will have big ramifications on the haves and have nots. 

[gimmesnow]

Windy and snow is great for skiing and snowboarding since it blows all the snow between the trees in the runs and causes even greater accumulation.

[bud2380]

KCRG going with 5-10" area wide.

[bud2380]

KWWL's forecast.

A Storm Track 7 RED ALERT DAY is in effect from early this evening through late Tuesday night. Significant, high-end snowfall accumulations are expected across the entire area as very strong winds lead to low visibility and near-blizzard conditions. Travel will be very difficult and dangerous. Expect widespread school and business closures. Plan ahead if you have to travel.

Overall accumulations will fall into a 9 to 13” range (yes, a foot or more of snow is possible) from near Tama to Elkader and all areas south. North of that line will fall into a 5 to 9” range.

[bud2380]

GFS is further south.  Blasts KC.

 

[bud2380]

GFS right in that 6-8" wheel house we talked about for Cedar Rapids.

 

[East Dubzz]

I vibe with the 5-10" forecast. Think that makes sense.