January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[Ken in Wood Village]

Looking good 🌨

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, MossMan said:

NOOOOOO!!!! Never take down the Christmas lights right before an arctic event!!! You just jinxed everything.

Put winter tires on my wife’s car today too.  Thought we could maybe get by without this year.   If this falls apart it’s on me.  

[Phishy Wx]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

One thing to keep an eye on late this month is a possible robust MJO wave in region 7.  It almost always gets cold in the winter with that.  Maybe it can just stay cold all the way through, but I'm doubting that.

I'm thinking another round of deep freeze end of the month/first week of feb, been thinking that for the last 6 weeks

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

24 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Will the Arctic front make it to Cancun?

But seriously, any tips to avoid pipes bursting that doesn't require a lot of construction? Wife is the one who is good with tools but still at the hospital.

On a fun note. Any other games or experiments you can do with kids when temps go negative?

Some schools in Minnesota close for severe cold. Will any in the NW do so? What does the P.H.I.L model say? 

No idea on schools. 

If you can get some cheap plastic cake pans/jello molds from the dollar store, you can put food coloring and water in them and put them outside to freeze in fun shapes. Kids like to check on them and then watch them melt later (unless that will make your kid sad. Some might get that way.) 

 

You could get pine cones and roll them in peanut butter and bird seed and hang them out for the birds if you're not concerned about other critters (rats, etc.) getting them. 

 

As far as keeping pipes warm beyond what everyone else has said, think about where any exterior walls are that have plumbing in them. Kitchen sink by a window? Toilet? Drip the sink, open the cabinet doors to allow air flow, and maybe even put a fan in those rooms to circulate/direct heat to the pipes. You also want to make sure your windows are covered with curtains when it's really cold. If you don't have good curtains, you can use blankets and pin them up there. However, you do want to make sure you get airflow to the windows part of the time or you cab get condensation and mold/mildew on the windowsill. So close at night, open during the day for at least a little while to get air circulation. 

 

One last thing. Make sure you know how to shut off the water to your house and have a tool that can do it. If you don't have a whole house shut off on your garage, figure out how to shut it off at the meter. There's a tool that let's you do it. I don't know about wells and we'll houses and pumps if you're not on city water, but I bet @SilverFallsAndrew and others would have some advice.

 

Hope your wife is recovering well!

[SpaceRace22]

woof

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[Perturbed Member]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

woof

 

The PDX one is impressive. The first 1-2 inches of that average is phantom snow falling tonight and tomorrow though. These Euro snow maps are just too generous in marginal temps. 

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

A lot more than 3!

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

4 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

No idea on schools. 

If you can get some cheap plastic cake pans/jello molds from the dollar store, you can put food coloring and water in them and put them outside to freeze in fun shapes. Kids like to check on them and then watch them melt later (unless that will make your kid sad. Some might get that way.) 

 

You could get pine cones and roll them in peanut butter and bird seed and hang them out for the birds if you're not concerned about other critters (rats, etc.) getting them. 

 

As far as keeping pipes warm beyond what everyone else has said, think about where any exterior walls are that have plumbing in them. Kitchen sink by a window? Toilet? Drip the sink, open the cabinet doors to allow air flow, and maybe even put a fan in those rooms to circulate/direct heat to the pipes. You also want to make sure your windows are covered with curtains when it's really cold. If you don't have good curtains, you can use blankets and pin them up there. However, you do want to make sure you get airflow to the windows part of the time or you cab get condensation and mold/mildew on the windowsill. So close at night, open during the day for at least a little while to get air circulation. 

 

One last thing. Make sure you know how to shut off the water to your house and have a tool that can do it. If you don't have a whole house shut off on your garage, figure out how to shut it off at the meter. There's a tool that let's you do it. I don't know about wells and we'll houses and pumps if you're not on city water, but I bet @SilverFallsAndrew and others would have some advice.

 

Hope your wife is recovering well!

Make sure when you drip water that you use the sink furthest from the hot water tank.  Actually good to drop from several sinks but a must to use the furthest one.  And turn the faucet to cold, that's the water you want moving.

[SpaceRace22]

[Cloud]

Single digits on the weather app for SEA and Seattle. If this verifies, many locations will be sub-0. 

[Meatyorologist]

Speaking from experience: don't even think about snow yet. That will fall into place in the 48hr timeframe, at the latest, probably within a day. Since snow accumulation is so sensitive to QPF, literal microfluctuations in any one of the many potential variables could spell an eight inch forecast buffer. Hell, PSCZ/Arctic Front features are nearly unforecastable, without at least one major bust/boom.

[SnowWillarrive]

Just now, Brian_in_Leavenworth said:

Make sure when you drip water that you use the sink furthest from the hot water tank.  Actually good to drop from several sinks but a must to use the furthest one.  And turn the faucet to cold, that's the water you want moving.

I’m curious in Leavenworth do people put covers on their crawlspace vents? Is that even worth it during cold snaps. 

[MWG]

Hmm

 

[iFred]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

Speaking from experience: don't even think about snow yet. That will fall into place in the 48hr timeframe, at the latest, probably within a day. Since snow accumulation is so sensitive to QPF, literal microfluctuations in any one of the many potential variables could spell an eight inch forecast buffer. Hell, PSCZ/Arctic Front features are nearly unforecastable, without at least one major bust/boom.

You however are allowed to start thinking about the increasing number of Euro ensemble members that stay colder, longer and some of the hints being thrown out there for round two.

[SpaceRace22]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Speaking from experience: don't even think about snow yet. That will fall into place in the 48hr timeframe, at the latest, probably within a day. Since snow accumulation is so sensitive to QPF, literal microfluctuations in any one of the many potential variables could spell an eight inch forecast buffer. Hell, PSCZ/Arctic Front features are nearly unforecastable, without at least one major bust/boom.

I think it's okay to post eye candy snow maps and ensemble meteograms though. Most people here understand that snow is a total wildcard until we get much closer on this.

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

You however are allowed to start thinking about the increasing number of Euro ensemble members that stay colder, longer and some of the hints being thrown out there for round two.

Well that's just necessary conversation.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

ECMWF 6 days out on the Dec 2021 cold snap, just to temper expectations.

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

woof

Would like snow to be more of slam dunk for western WA. Maybe another shift west will do it

[SpaceRace22]

4 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

ECMWF 6 days out on the Dec 2021 cold snap, just to temper expectations.

Ok but we are like 4 days out on this one. And much closer than that if you consider the actual pattern getting set up. Pretty major difference in the models between 4 days and 6 days.

[SpaceRace22]

Could we maybe collectively tone it down on the tone policing and reality checking here just for one night or nah? We are all adults here (for the most part, I assume). I think people can handle some wishcasting and meaningless snow maps here and there. LET THE WEENIES POST

[Snowlova]

if the gfs caves today, which I suspect it will, then this place will be a full blown madhouse which is awesome!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

6 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Would like snow to be more of slam dunk for western WA. Maybe another shift west will do it

You can ignore these totals. If the cold gets over the water there will be snow.

[thisisacreativename]

1 minute ago, Snowlova said:

if the gfs caves today, which I suspect it will, then this place will be a full blown madhouse which is awesome!

~200 people on after midnight is already pretty madhouse lol

 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

ECMWF 6 days out on the Dec 2021 cold snap, just to temper expectations.

That was a lovely day! I had to thaw my wheels with my propane heater since so much slush built up in them on them early on the 25th when I needed to run up to the neighbors place on very slushy roads…Then quickly froze causing major out of balance vibration. 

[MWG]

Just now, thisisacreativename said:

~200 people on after midnight is already pretty madhouse lol

 

Yeah, I don’t usually stay this late not even during the weekend

[Ken in Wood Village]

Remember me saying about the possibility of a major windstorm because of where that low pressure system was setting up along the South West of Oregon and North California border? I have NEVER seen this type of wind gusts for the Troutdale area  before. There are gusts over 80 mph this isn't Crown Point, it's Troutdale. If winds are gusting to 80 mph at Troutdale, just imagine how strong the gusts would be at Crown Point. If this verifies, this could be historic and wide spread damaging winds 🌬

[iFred]

10 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

ECMWF 6 days out on the Dec 2021 cold snap, just to temper expectations.

Do you have the Jan 2011 and Jan 2020 whiffs? 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

You can ignore these totals. If the cold gets over the water there will be snow.

It may need to get over water more. Though I would think it is currently good enough for a stronger Arctic front 

[Brian_in_Leavenworth]

8 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I’m curious in Leavenworth do people put covers on their crawlspace vents? Is that even worth it during cold snaps. 

That's a good question, and I hadn't really paid attention to that.  And do you mean like the foundation vents?  Probably would be good to not only for cold but to keep pests out.

I'm not familiar with foundation vents.  Just reading a bit now it seems like they are no longer recommended since they actually promote moisture buildup instead of prevent it, so probably best to leave them closed year round.  Maybe newer houses don't have them anymore?  I will check my house tomorrow, though I suspect my pest control company would have done that.

Our humidity levels are low most of the year except during winter when you would want them closed anyway.

[Slushy Inch]

Decent windstorm in the cards too. Look at those northerlies afterwards.

[SpaceRace22]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

It may need to get over water more. Though I would think it is currently good enough for a stronger Arctic front 

The bigger issue is that models like the GFS, Euro, and GEM do not have the resolution to adequately model our terrain dynamics that drive the bulk of our precipitation during events like this. There are countless small scale features that can and will spin up that those models simply will never catch. Just wait until it gets closer and we have the mesoscale models available to us. Then we can worry about snowfall. For now, they are just fun maps.

[MossMan]

Can’t wait to see the Sunday morning screen time notification my iPhone sends me each week. It will probably be up about 300%!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The bigger issue is that models like the GFS, Euro, and GEM do not have the resolution to adequately model our terrain dynamics that drive the bulk of our precipitation during events like this. There are countless small scale features that can and will spin up that those models simply will never catch. Just wait until it gets closer and we have the mesoscale models available to us. Then we can worry about snowfall. For now, they are just fun maps.

This. Our climate here is wild.

[Snowlova]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

The bigger issue is that models like the GFS, Euro, and GEM do not have the resolution to adequately model our terrain dynamics that drive the bulk of our precipitation during events like this. There are countless small scale features that can and will spin up that those models simply will never catch. Just wait until it gets closer and we have the mesoscale models available to us. Then we can talk snowfall.

Agree. Thinking snowfall will likely be a nowcast, probably at the point of watching individual snow bands and mini features on radar perhaps associated with arctic boundary to see who gets the larger dose of snow

[MossMan]

I’m up to 3 snowflakes now! Highest number so far! 

[Skagit Weather]

23 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

ECMWF 6 days out on the Dec 2021 cold snap, just to temper expectations.

Looks like it bottomed out at -10.7C at 850mb at Quillayute on the 27th (which was the coldest reading) in December 2021 so maybe the Euro was 2-3ºC too warm with this -13 or -14C forecast? Honestly I would be pretty happy with a 2021 repeat.

For reference the 138 hour forecast for the Euro tonight shows 850mb temps dropping to -16 or -17C at Quillayute for this event so maybe 3-4C colder if it verified with the same error.

[theRunner]

What is the trend of the GFS so far, if it were to be correct do we completely miss out on snow, or just experience less extreme cold and less snow? 

 

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Skagit Weather said:

Looks like it bottomed out at -10.7C at Quillayute on the 27th (which was the coldest reading) in December 2021 so maybe the Euro was 2-3ºC too warm with this -13 or -14C forecast? Honestly I would be pretty happy with a 2021 repeat.

For reference the 138 hour forecast for the Euro tonight shows 850mb temps dropping to -16 or -17C at Quillayute for this event so maybe 3-4C colder.

Oh me too, I absolutely loved that event! 

[snow_wizard]

This might be the best I've ever seen.