January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Ya think?  Holy sheit.

Lots of people want to see pepto maps going into the cold.    And hypothetical talk of more snow will not satisfy them.   Its just the way it is... no sense in worrying about trying to get everyone on the same page.   Its literally herding cats.  

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

-15C at KSEA is pretty great. -20C would be top tier.

For an ensemble mean that is insane.

[westcoastexpat]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

But the surface cold hangs on for days (which is where we live).  Win in my book.

Definitely lingers after the main blast. As the PV heads eastward, cold air pool definitely stays in place over PNW. Inversion city. Good for people who like it chilly but not for snow lovers.

I understand why you'd be happy about that, but most people here just care about big dog snow storms, not dry and cooler than normal.

[TacomaWx]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Lots of people want to see pepto maps going into the cold.    And hypothetical talk of more snow will not satisfy them.   Its just the way it is... no sense in worrying about trying to get everyone on the same page.   Its literally herding cats.  

Yeah some people are looking for different things nothing wrong with that. I don’t see the point in getting worked up about snow maps that are going to change every 6-12 hours though. Not to mention December 2021 had multiple unforecasted snowfalls…it would be hard to NOT see snowfall for most places with this upcoming pattern IMO. 

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

19 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Been waiting for him. Little early isn't he? I wasn't actually expecting him until Tuesday or even Wednesday. 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Definitely lingers after the main blast. As the PV heads eastward, cold air pool definitely stays in place over PNW. Inversion city. Good for people who like it chilly but not for snow lovers.

I understand why you'd be happy about that, but most people here just care about big dog snow storms, not dry and cooler than normal.

...... isn't that basically all of us except for that Poo Deck guy?

[snow_wizard]

That second block is kind of becoming a thing...

Just have to see how it evolves.

[Slushy Inch]

Still an extended cold pattern.

[Slushy Inch]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

That second block is kind of becoming a thing...

Just have to see how it evolves.

Much more bulky than first one 

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

Been waiting for him. Little early isn't he? I wasn't actually expecting him until Tuesday or even Wednesday. 

He might put it back, he is more in love with snowfall than I am so he is throwing a tantrum today.

[iFred]

Just now, BLI snowman said:

...... isn't that basically all of us except for that Poo Deck guy?

The vulnerable, my grandmother, people with exposed pipes, people who care about stream runoff, my mango tree.

[SouthHillFrosty]

Slight step back on the EPS for the PS. Oregon still looks good. Might outscore the PS two years in a row 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, westcoastexpat said:

Definitely lingers after the main blast. As the PV heads eastward, cold air pool definitely stays in place over PNW. Inversion city. Good for people who like it chilly but not for snow lovers.

I understand why you'd be happy about that, but most people here just care about big dog snow storms, not dry and cooler than normal.

The term cool is a huge understatement.

[westcoastexpat]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

...... isn't that basically all of us except for that Poo Deck guy?

I personally don't like temps much below freezing. I like heavy snow falling and add in some wind to reduce visibility. Epic!

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Still an extended cold pattern.

If there were a 'snowstorm pattern' for western WA/OR, this would be it.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Much more bulky than first one 

We just have to see if it can drive the goods this far down or not.  TBD.

[Mid Valley Duck]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That second block is kind of becoming a thing...

Just have to see how it evolves.

How it gets there will be interesting. Also some time to get that a little bit more east

[snow_wizard]

As I said...this would be yuge for Seattle.  Cold enough for snow and probably a steady stream of overrunning precip.

 

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

The vulnerable, my grandmother, people with exposed pipes, people who care about stream runoff, my mango tree.

Christ, will someone think about the Palms!!!

[Cold Snap]

10 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That second block is kind of becoming a thing...

Just have to see how it evolves.

Really liking the looks of how this could go on for a little while.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Christ, will someone think about the Palms!!!

I could see some non native vegetation not faring well.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

Really liking the looks of how this could go on for a little while.

Frozen ponds!

[Ken in Wood Village]

Michael Snyder is starting to come on board with the colder model solutions. But what I didn't see until he pointed it out on his video is a secondary low that comes in after the strong storm comes in early Tuesday morning. 

Looks like the Portland area could see a chance of snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning 🌨

Sorry, forgot to post the snow totals. This would be amazing 🌨

 

 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Cold Snap said:

Really liking the looks of how this could go on for a little while.

Pacific jet comes in right after day 10 on the EPS. 

[OysterPrintout]

11 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Slight step back on the EPS for the PS. Oregon still looks good. Might outscore the PS two years in a row 

Bout half that snow in PDX comes from a Tue/Wed system that is big time marginal looking. South wind and temps 34-35 not inspiring a ton of confidence but still some hopes to trend this a little better in the home stretch

[Cold Snap]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Pacific jet comes in right after day 10 on the EPS. 

Yeah you are right about that. Maybe there will be a nice overrunning event with the cold air in place.

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Michael Snyder is starting to come on board with the colder model solutions. But what I didn't see until he pointed it out on his video is a secondary low that comes in after the strong storm comes in early Tuesday morning. 

Looks like the Portland area could see a chance of snow Tuesday night and Wednesday morning 🌨

 

 

I think everyone was talking about that potential as the run came out. A lot of members without it, some have it effecting WA. It’s a total wildcard. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I could see some non native vegetation not faring well.

Speaking of native vegetation... saw this pic posted today of North Bend from 1918 with Little Si and Mt Si in the background.   Talk about destroying the natural environment.    Just stumps up the mountain.   People from that era would be shocked at how much better it looks today.  

[Mid Valley Duck]

More EPS members picking up on the Tuesday night system for NW Oregon

[Cascadia_Wx]

18 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The term cool is a huge understatement.

That’s what I always say when people say I’m cool.

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

More EPS members picking up on the Tuesday night system for NW Oregon

That might show location but the shape is also important. 5 members may effect western WA.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

13 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

As I said...this would be yuge for Seattle.  Cold enough for snow and probably a steady stream of overrunning precip.

 

The 12z GraphCast looks great again. Arctic air settles in on Friday, then a system arrives on Monday. This could be a big snowstorm for many.

 

[MossMan]

4 snowflakes now! No single digits however.

[SimplySmoothWX]

im curious if the 18z Euro will stick with its 12z counterpart or revert back to its 00Z solution

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

4 snowflakes now! No single digits however.

I think the snow on Friday and Saturday is a nod to the warmer and wetter GFS.   The ECMWF and GEM don't show precip even close to us on those days.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, SimplySmoothWX said:

im curious if the 18z Euro will stick with its 12z counterpart or revert back to its 00Z solution

18z only goes out 72 hours.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

18z only goes out 72 hours.

It does 90 hours

[Mid Valley Duck]

The Tuesday night system for NW oregon gives me a little warmer 1/10/17 vibe. Also falls on the 7 year anniversary of that event.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

I think everyone was talking about that potential as the run came out. A lot of members without it, some have it effecting WA. It’s a total wildcard. 

That Tuesday secondary low is not a new idea, it just left the model runs for 2 days or so.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Speaking of native vegetation... saw this pic posted today of North Bend from 1918 with Little Si and Mt Si in the background.   Talk about destroying the natural environment.    Just stumps up the mountain.   People from that era would be shocked at how much better it looks today.  

Tim just try and imagine what it looked like before the logging, old growth all around the Puget Sound. It had to of been a sight to see. The old time loggers were rapist.