January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[RaleighHillsRunner]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

This is the ECMWF.  Lots of snow.

This verifying would be epic for PDX, but so much time for things to change still…such a long week ahead!

[SnowySeeker50]

Big step in the wrong direction tonight. Maybe we can still get some snow at least

[lowlandsnow]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm shocked by the negativity on here.

The trends are just devastating I was hoping for a true arctic blast and now all I may end up with is a subfreezing high or two and minimal snow

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm shocked by the negativity on here.

The trends are total crap tonight.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Cloud said:

What are people’s opinion on this? Is there time for a turnaround or are we now at a point of no return with these solutions? This was a gut punch. 

It would be one of the all-time rug pull fake outs if this thing turned into a decent Arctic event from here.

Not the point of no return, but it's very rare to see all models trend so poorly this close (within 5 days) and then recover.

[Phishy Wx]

'Garden Variety'

[westcoastexpat]

The most disappointing part of the 00Z ECMWF is the duration - basically gives us two days of subfreezing before a return above 32.

Really curious to see the ensembles when they come out.

[Parrot]

5 minutes ago, Weiner Warrior said:

We still have the WRF

Well I WAS still on board but I guess winter is officially cancelled  

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

It would be one of the all-time rug pull fake outs if this thing turned into a decent Arctic event from here.

Not the point of no return, but it's very rare to see all models trend so poorly this close (within 5 days) and then recover.

There is still the ICON all hope should not be lost yet

[lowlandsnow]

Just now, westcoastexpat said:

The most disappointing part of the 00Z ECMWF is the duration - basically gives us two days of subfreezing before a return above 32.

Really curious to see the ensembles when they come out.

I think at this point the deterministic runs matter more not to say the ensembles aren't important though

[Requiem]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm shocked by the negativity on here.

I mean can you blame anyone? Sure, maybe this is the models meeting in the middle, but this keeps up Portland is seeing cold rain and nothing else. The valley is out at this point.

[Deweydog]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot colder than Jan 1998 though.  At least up here.

I think PDX bottomed out at 24 with that event. Would be a pretty big win if that verifies this go around.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

At the rate the models are pulling back tonight, I’d hate to see how they look in a couple more days.

Trust me, it’s as painful for me as it is for you. I’d like nothing more to see an historic arctic airmass in the mid-winter. Bright sunshine, snow on the ground, brisk east wind, afternoon temps around 20, lows in the single digits to around zero. I was dressed in Osh-Kosh and hadn’t even started kindergarten yet last time we had something like that down here.

Thing is, we've had a lot of cracks at that since 2016-17. Been a lot more favorable blocking opportunities than most 7 year stretches give us. And a lot of Ninas and deep -PDO/-PNA.

I think we all sense that we are due for a slightly less charmed stretch now, so it'll be a streak that is likely to live on for awhile IMO. 

[Mid Valley Duck]

The highs and lows of this forum reminds me of a college football message board. We’re all sickos.

[Winterdog]

I never thought it would come to this but please verify 0Z GFS.  The GFS kicked butt for the past several days while the EURO, the ICON, the GEM and several other AI models got embarrassed and will all be moving towards the lowlife GFS.  Go GFS, go Huskies!

[Deweydog]

December 2024

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, Mid Valley Duck said:

The highs and lows of this board reminds me of a college football message board. We’re all sickos.

I'm on a couple non weather boards.  this is pretty tame.  but yea people freak when things go south at the 10yd line, so to speak

[lowlandsnow]

On a positive note, today for the first time in over a decade arctic sea ice extent is above the 2000s average and the 21st lowest on record

VISHOP (nipr.ac.jp)

[Gradient Keeper]

The pattern sets up in just 24-36 hours. There isn't much time left for any concrete changes. I just can't see the ridge placement backing off enough to the west to see any runs colder than this Euro run tonight. More concerned about the ridge slowly trending closer if anything. Hopefully not for snow lovers.

[Slushy Inch]

EPS.

[Cascadia_Wx]

If and when we ever do get a true upper level arctic blast again, I will be curious to see how the models actually behave in the lead up. Because next time the Euro/Ukmet/Etch-A-Sketch-Cast and the HAL 9000 puke 50 shades of magenta across the west coast in the 5-10 day range, I’m going to be extra skeptical.

Edited January 8 by Cascadia_Wx

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

The pattern sets up in just 24-36 hours. There isn't much time left for any concrete changes. I just can't see the ridge placement backing off enough to the west to see any runs colder than this Euro run tonight. More concerned about the ridge slowly trending closer if anything. Hopefully not for snow lovers.

The ridge is placed just fine, it just never matures into a full latitude block.  Just messily phases with the weak block over the Arctic as it gets put in the taffy stretcher.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

EPS.

Ridge getting pinched off sooner just like the operational.

[Perturbed Member]

The trend is now getting picked up on Weather.com model too. Less cold air makes it down, but closer to the moisture and the cold vs warm battle zone. Increased snowfall forecast but higher temps. 

A dangerous game to play where you gamble and often end up with 38F, rain and a SW wind. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The trends are total crap tonight.

The trend is scary, sure if it played out as shown tonight it would be a decent event but the moderation will most likely continue.  If we end up with just a trickle of cold air it will suck. It's looking more and more likely the cold will struggle making it past the border.  

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

If and when we ever do get a true upper level arctic blast again, I will be curious to see how the models actually behave in the lead up. Because next time the Euro/Ukmet/Etch-A-Sketch-Cast and the HAL 900 puke 50 shades of magenta across the west coast in the 5-10 day range, I’m going to be extra skeptical.

My guess is almost all will lock in by 7 days out and barely flinch.

[Phishy Wx]

Spokane NWS dropped our WSW for a WWA

yep its over

[ShawniganLake]

14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

SEA pulled off 31/24 and 29/23 with that. Pretty much exactly what the Euro shows now and probably on the colder end of what we should expect for this event at this point.

Abbotsford had back to back highs of 24 in January 98.  A similar outcome would be a decent result at this point. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Thing is, we've had a lot of cracks at that since 2016-17. Been a lot more favorable blocking opportunities than most 7 year stretches give us. And a lot of Ninas and deep -PDO/-PNA.

I think we all sense that we are due for a slightly less charmed stretch now, so it'll be a streak that is likely to live on for awhile IMO. 

Yeah, that’s the really depressing part. We’ve actually been on a pretty favorable run for western troughing in the cold season the last several years, with lots of swings at the piñata, but we still haven’t been able to pull it off.

[Cloud]

3 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

The pattern sets up in just 24-36 hours. There isn't much time left for any concrete changes. I just can't see the ridge placement backing off enough to the west to see any runs colder than this Euro run tonight. More concerned about the ridge slowly trending closer if anything. Hopefully not for snow lovers.

At any rate, I believe we were spoiled by the extreme solutions the models had been showing the past week or so. At any given winters, we would be quite happy with what was shown tonight. This may be our only shot so everyone should enjoy it as much as they can. 

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Ridge getting pinched off sooner just like the operational.

But better ridging at the top

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

December 2024

The snow never made it to the valley floor.

[The Winter Warlock]

[Gradient Keeper]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

My guess is almost all will lock in by 7 days out and barely flinch.

Maybe.

[Slushy Inch]

Woah big ensemble change 

[lowlandsnow]

6 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

On a positive note, today for the first time in over a decade arctic sea ice extent is above the 2000s average and the 21st lowest on record

VISHOP (nipr.ac.jp)

Maybe the rapid sea ice growth for this time of year caused the models to fail

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Cloud said:

At any rate, I believe we were spoiled by the extreme solutions the models had been showing the past week or so. At any given winters, we would be quite happy with what was shown tonight. This may be our only shot so everyone should enjoy it as much as they can. 

This is a super fair point. We've probably been spoiled by the whole of the last several years!

[westcoastexpat]

Latest western WA and OR forecaster discussions from the NWS

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

The snow never made it to the valley floor.

The teleconnections were piss poor.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, Slushy Inch said:

Woah big ensemble change 

Those are awful changes.