January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Euro has for sure moved north. 

[TT-SEA]

[SnowWillarrive]

What does 18z euro show for arctic front? 

[lowlandsnow]

2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Portland back in the game on Saturday afternoon!

Now we just need it to go another 150 or so miles North

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Euro has for sure moved north. 

Just about the same northward extent as its 00Z run last night but with a little more moisture.

[TT-SEA]

[snow_wizard]

Significant move north on the 18z ECMWF.  Stronger low and further north.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

What does 18z euro show for arctic front? 

 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Might get lucky and it be good for both areas north and south. 

[MossMan]

The lack of snow cover is going to be a real issue for many. 

[snow_wizard]

Portland is very much in play on this run.  Another jump north on the 0z and things get interesting for WA again.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

It's slowly improving for the Puget Sound area.  The 18z GFS actually showed 2 or 3 inches here.

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Significant move north on the 18z ECMWF.  Stronger low and further north.

Pretty sure that is the realistic northward extent with a decent low forming along the boundary.    We need the cold air to be much less aggressive for it get up to Seattle.    The 00Z ECMWF last night had a 997mb low off the coast of Oregon and this 18Z run has a 1000mb low.   So its has already shown a deeper low on previous runs.  

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

 

Doesn't look terrible for out here, I bet we'll score at least a couple inches before the weekend.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Euro a lot juicier. Still looking good for a significant W Valley event. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

It's slowly improving for the Puget Sound area.  The 18z GFS actually showed 2 or 3 inches here.

For tomorrow??    Don't think the 18Z GFS showed that.

 

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

If the stuff stays south of here I want you to get it more than anyone.  I mean snow of course.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty sure that is the realistic northward extent with a decent low forming along the boundary.    We need the cold air to be much less aggressive for it get up to Seattle.    The 00Z ECMWF night had a 997mb low off the coast of Oregon and this 18Z run has a 1000mb low.   So its has already shown a deeper low on previous runs.  

I agree. Given the power of this airmass the low is going to be suppressed. However, I do think moisture makes it at least to Clark county and potentially even the Longview Kelso area. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Doesn't look terrible for out here, I bet we'll score at least a couple inches before the weekend.

It would all come between 3-8 p.m. tomorrow.   Definitely could get 1-2 inches.   I am sure we will go into the cold with some snow on the ground.  

[Requiem]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Would be fairly damaging-- I'm not taking these numbers at face value but if we do this would be worse than that big crippling ice storm back in December 2016

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Pretty sure that is the realistic northward extent with a decent low forming along the boundary.    We need the cold air to be much less aggressive for it get up to Seattle.    The 00Z ECMWF night had a 997mb low off the coast of Oregon and this 18Z run has a 1000mb low.   So its has already shown a deeper low on previous runs.  

As I mentioned before.  I will never forget 2012 and how the moisture just kept going further and further north on every run even as it was happening.  We're not out of it yet.

[RentonHill]

3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The lack of snow cover is going to be a real issue for many. 

We're probably going to lose another chunk of our orchard trees up there, maybe the new ones we planted this past spring after losing some to too much snow last season. This time, from a lack of snow....

[snow_wizard]

Don't forget the GFS still has snow making it north of Seattle.  I think our chances up here are about 30% right now.

[Perturbed Member]

PDX sitting in a pretty good spot. Positioned well for any last second trek north. Hopefully low level cold and outflow from the gorge can help a bit with producing more lift. Any scenarios with rapidly strengthening lows racing off to the north should be off the table now. 

I have my doubts we'll see any huge snow totals but I suspect it could be a pretty nice event here with some snow, maybe some ZR in there too and very cold for days. Ending up totally dry is still possible but I just have a gut feeling at least some moisture will find a way up here.

[lowlandsnow]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

For tomorrow??    Don't think the 18Z GFS showed that.

 

About another .5 - 1" falls after 10pm

[MWG]

Light rain/snow mix since around 1pm. Finally temps came down to 34F at the moment.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Portland is very much in play on this run.  Another jump north on the 0z and things get interesting for WA again.

Sounds possible. My Astoria landing still has a chance.

[lowlandsnow]

If Seattle can get two inches of snowcover I think we could easily have our coldest temp since November 2010

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I’m more interested in euro temp maps

[MWG]

2 minutes ago, MWG said:

Light rain/snow mix since around 1pm. Finally temps came down to 34F at the moment.

Nvm it jump back up to 36F 

[snow_wizard]

I love the fact the 18z GFS and ECMWF were both snowier with the arctic front vs earlier runs.  Hopefully 0z will continue that.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Surface Arctic boundary makes it to EUG at about 3AM on Sat

[TT-SEA]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I’m more interested in euro temp maps

 

[Lynnwoodweather]

17 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Euro has for sure moved north. 

Not enough time left for Seattle / Everett 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

About another .5 - 1" falls after 10pm

Ahhh... very interesting.   It keeps the boundary lingering over the south Sound longer than the ECMWF.

[GHweatherChris]

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I agree. Given the power of this airmass the low is going to be suppressed. However, I do think moisture makes it at least to Clark county and potentially even the Longview Kelso area. 

With the run shown now or the further north run coming later? Olympia has always been a spot the precip likes to stop at.

[MikeInEverett]

1 minute ago, Lynnwoodweather said:

Not enough time left for Seattle / Everett 

Not saying it will happen because it probably won’t, but we’ve seen some pretty crazy northern jumps with these things before, models aren’t very good with these setups.

[plainguy]

Guaranteed to be a repeat of this. 1969 in Astoria. 12" on the ground when I was 6. Why? Because I have a flight to Palm Springs Saturday at 11AM.