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January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

Meatyorologist
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Posted by SeanNyberg,

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kids. I'm going to step back for the day too. It's just too much uninformed nonsense. I am excited for a lot of you guys, because it seems like this is your first time tracking a PNW winter storm. I remember my first time.
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Posted by GHweatherChris,

@iFred @TT-SEA pin this at the top...
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SeanNyberg
SeanNyberg

my God, this forum has devolved into the worst of the worst. It's always emotional and reactionary in here, but it seems that the rational and seasoned members have pulled back to make way for the kid

Meatyorologist
Meatyorologist

Cheers forum members!

iFred
iFred

@Meatyorologist @SouthHillFrosty @Cold Snap @RentonHill all here

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Sandy rocks Community Regular

Sandy rocks

Posted
Posted

Thank you Requiem for your response. All this conflicting information. Based on past experiences, I understood that if the storm was south, it would be snow but all these reports are seem to be contrary to that belief so thanks again.

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T-Town Grand Master

T-Town

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z EPS snowfall mean for Saturday on top... 00Z run last night for comparison on bottom. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-snow_24hr-5190400.png

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nw-snow_24hr-5190400 (1).png

Maybe some flurries or light snow here based on that. Not what I was hoping for but could still be fun at 25 degrees with a breezy north wind. 

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The Cats Meow Proficient

The Cats Meow

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

18Z control for MSLP and snowfall for Saturday for comparison to above maps.

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-nw-mslp_anom-5168800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-c00-nw-snow_12hr-5190400 (1).png

A good bit of that showing up in souther washington will probably get chewed up by the bitterly cold air.  Probably won't even hit the ground.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, The Cats Meow said:

A good bit of that showing up in souther washington will probably get chewed up by the bitterly cold air.  Probably won't even hit the ground.

Yes... snow with bitter cold temps in the mid 20s is nearly impossible as our Montana friends can confirm.  😀

I get what you are saying though... but the problem would be dry air and not the temperatures.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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icyasf Collaborator

icyasf

Posted
Posted

Trying so hard to not jinx it, but I think Corvallis-Portland is looking like the best spot to be right now. Hoping it stays that way and also hoping the arctic front can bring washingtonians some snow ❄️ 

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Frontal Snowsquall Grand Master

Frontal Snowsquall

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Prairiedog said:

Here's Rod's latest.

Weather models finally beginning to agree. Look for early Friday rain, changing to snow in Portland before the noon hour as east winds start to blow. Daytime temps will fall with sticking snow quickly becoming possible. Friday afternoon temps could drop to 30 degrees with at least several inches on the ground in the city center before sunset. Friday overnight snowfall could reach 6" ( I am really guessing here, but attempting to paint a picture). Possible freezing rain or sleet areas develop going into Saturday morning. Dry weather returns by Sunday morning. Cold east winds and bitter cold nights through the day Tuesday.
 
 
 
 

Rod Hill just made a new video update.

 

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MossMan Grand Master

MossMan

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Meanwhile, seven years ago RIGHT NOW things were just about ready to POP OFF.

us_reanalyse-en_modera5_201701110300_1256_149.png

The only thing I could find around that time in my picture archives. A frozen but snowless lake landscape. 

IMG_1755.jpeg

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Meanwhile, seven years ago RIGHT NOW things were just about ready to POP OFF.

us_reanalyse-en_modera5_201701110300_1256_149.png

2017 is 7 years ago now... wow.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Meanwhile, seven years ago RIGHT NOW things were just about ready to POP OFF.

us_reanalyse-en_modera5_201701110300_1256_149.png

Such a great and dynamic system, something that seemed to be mostly missed on the global models but at least hinted at by the mesoscale models in the day or two before it happened. Don't remember the Euro, GFS or GEM ever really going too crazy with the snowfall amounts ahead of this but the 3km NAM, RGEM, etc were hinting at something much more explosive.

 

image.thumb.png.1609225ec4b39c489121b2473e644df3.png

image.thumb.png.c47690b34b5d83b16b3794b600765c94.png

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Doinko Grand Master

Doinko

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Such a great and dynamic system, something that seemed to be mostly missed on the global models but at least hinted at by the mesoscale models in the day or two before it happened. Don't remember the Euro, GFS or GEM ever really going too crazy with the snowfall amounts ahead of this but the 3km NAM, RGEM, etc were hinting at something much more explosive.

 

image.thumb.png.1609225ec4b39c489121b2473e644df3.png

image.thumb.png.c47690b34b5d83b16b3794b600765c94.png

Such a great event, bit over a foot with most of it in a couple hours.

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Frontal Snowsquall Grand Master

Frontal Snowsquall

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Such a great and dynamic system, something that seemed to be mostly missed on the global models but at least hinted at by the mesoscale models in the day or two before it happened. Don't remember the Euro, GFS or GEM ever really going too crazy with the snowfall amounts ahead of this but the 3km NAM, RGEM, etc were hinting at something much more explosive.

 

image.thumb.png.1609225ec4b39c489121b2473e644df3.png

image.thumb.png.c47690b34b5d83b16b3794b600765c94.png

I remember one of the last RGEM maps did really well in the end. Man I wish I still had the maps or maybe I posted it back in 2017. Maybe I’ll check later 😂 

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umadbro Experienced

umadbro

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

Such a great and dynamic system, something that seemed to be mostly missed on the global models but at least hinted at by the mesoscale models in the day or two before it happened. Don't remember the Euro, GFS or GEM ever really going too crazy with the snowfall amounts ahead of this but the 3km NAM, RGEM, etc were hinting at something much more explosive.

 

image.thumb.png.1609225ec4b39c489121b2473e644df3.png

image.thumb.png.c47690b34b5d83b16b3794b600765c94.png

If I remember correctly, that system was convective due to tapping into tropical moisture. Correct me if I’m wrong.

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https://ambientweather.net/dashboard/efcb24c8a999dceddfaba7469ce5bd2f

my personal weather station

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Requiem Grand Master

Requiem

Posted
Posted
Just now, Perturbed Member said:

00z NAM looks a bit north?

Interestingly it's actually faster with the progression of cold air 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Randyc321 Mentor

Randyc321

Posted
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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Could be a situation on Saturday where the radar shows precip much farther than is actually reaching the ground.   Probably going to be a wide swath of virga on the north side maybe up to Tacoma.

We know that it’s probably not going to happen for us ,Tim. But I know this is your thing.  Just sharing maps.  Nothing to see here.  Move along.

When are my tulips gonna come up?

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T-Town Grand Master

T-Town

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, plainguy said:

Guaranteed to be a repeat of this. 1969 in Astoria. 12" on the ground when I was 6. Why? Because I have a flight to Palm Springs Saturday at 11AM.

img623.jpg

That pic is incredible in so many ways. Thanks for sharing. 

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Perturbed Member Grand Master

Perturbed Member

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, umadbro said:

If I remember correctly, that system was convective due to tapping into tropical moisture. Correct me if I’m wrong.

I think there was plenty of juice in it but there was also something about the convergence of the cold through the gorge and the precip from that system, lining up almost perfectly right over PDX, good lifting and frontogenesis right as it hit us. It blew up at exactly the right time and area for us.

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TT-SEA Grand Master

TT-SEA

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

We know that it’s probably not going to happen for us ,Tim. But I know this is your thing.  Just sharing maps.  Nothing to see here.  Move along.

When are my tulips gonna come up?

I would be analyzing this no matter what happens..   Some people are going to win big on here.   I honestly still don't know where that will be.

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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MikeInEverett Mentor

MikeInEverett

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Posted

NAM is very underwhelming for the Puget Sound with the arctic front. Note that it said I would get nothing with the 12/2021 arctic front 8 hours before the event started when I got 5”, and that I would get 10” with a snowstorm last winter the night before and I got 2”.

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(Previous name: MillCreekMike)

Everett, WA (elev. 180’)

2023-2024 Snowfall:

1/11: Tr.

1/18: Tr.

Go M’s

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Requiem Grand Master

Requiem

Posted
Posted

I think we may have locked on-- NAM looks fairly similar if not slightly more north 

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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