January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All never forgive all the plebs who cheerleaded that dumb slider into existence on the night of 12/27/21 messed up our best chance at significant radiational cooling for a pathetic inch of snow. 

I don't know.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You know it’s going to take an act of GOD. We are talking about the station that didn’t go below 20 in December 2008. If they can do then this really is a different animal. 

That’s one reason I follow them. If they ever manage to pull off anything remotely impressive on the cold side, you know it’s a good event. The bar is the highest with them.

[SnowySeeker50]

Midnight high of 25f. Still 19f currently, about 4-5 degrees cooler than what most models were showing for this time here yesterday.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

All never forgive all the plebs who cheerleaded that dumb slider into existence on the night of 12/27/21 messed up our best chance at significant radiational cooling for a pathetic inch of snow. 

Oh 12/27/21…Very compatible to today with temps (though that one was 8 degrees cooler for a low) and wall to wall sun. I liked that view much better however. 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Went outside to sun tan in my speedo….. I guess the sun angles aren’t high enough yet. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Oh 12/27/21…Very compatible to today with temps (though that one was 8 degrees cooler for a low) and wall to wall sun. I liked that view much better however. 

Looks great!!

[Cascadia_Wx]

10 minutes ago, Frontal Snowsquall said:

Temps as of 3pm.

19 at Cascade Locks. Just 40 miles to go…

Edited January 12 by Cascadia_Wx

[CloudJunkie]

My backyard has dropped from 24 to 21 degrees in the last hour. Sunny and windy.

[Deweydog]

26 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

12 degrees to go. It’s gonna be tough.

Yeah I’m still liking 22/16

[Tyler Mode]

Nice sound effect ban circled in yellow, and some convergence from the Olympics off the coast in red.

[GHweatherChris]

Seattle NWS night shift:  Hey afternoon crew, any major changes we need to focus on?

Afternoon Shift: nope, nothing has changed, um well see ya!!

[BLI snowman]

16 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I thought ratios would be slightly lower at times because of a slight warm layer, or should that not be too much of an issue, at least for north metro area?

Tough call. Would likely impact things a little with the warmer near freezing layer negating the fact that there is essentially a dendritic growth zone at 950mb. Obviously any sleet mixing in will also negate the ratios. But with surface temps in the low to mid teens, I would still expect ratios with the snow that falls to be a lot higher than 10:1.

 

[BLI snowman]

31 minutes ago, Perturbed Member said:

So what is your prediction for snow totals across the metro? 

I think you're sitting in a pretty nice location for this. 

Like a lot of our storms, I'm sure there's going to be a decent spread. 

Feels like 4-5" would be on the low end and maybe 6-7" around the median. Some places further north and west stand a good chance at 10"+ though IMO.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Aurora hit freezing and SLE is finally into the 30s. PDX down to 30, a lot of 20s, even some mid-20s starting to show up in Portland east of 205. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

Seattle NWS night shift:  Hey afternoon crew, any major changes we need to focus on?

Afternoon Shift: nope, nothing has changed, um well see ya!!

Its all going to plan so far.

[Olive1010]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Like a lot of our storms, I'm sure there's going to be a decent spread. 

Feels like 4-5" would be on the low end and maybe 6-7" around the median. Some places further north and west stand a good chance at 10"+ though IMO.

yessir im west

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Like a lot of our storms, I'm sure there's going to be a decent spread. 

Feels like 4-5" would be on the low end and maybe 6-7" around the median. Some places further north and west stand a good chance at 10"+ though IMO.

15 someplace around  castle rock and toledo. Off to the west from there into the foothills could get close to 2 feet.

[Cascadia_Wx]

11 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Yeah I’m still liking 22/16

I’ll go ballzy and go 20/14 for them tomorrow.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Did anyone ask cliff about the road temps? 

[Deweydog]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I’ll go ballzy and go 20/14 for them tomorrow.

If it’s gonna bust I think it will bust cold. Very curious to see what the precip falling temps verify. Coldest since 1968?

[Cascadia_Wx]

Looks like Mark is going with 19 at PDX tomorrow.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Aurora hit freezing and SLE is finally into the 30s. PDX down to 30, a lot of 20s, even some mid-20s starting to show up in Portland east of 205. 

28 IMBY. Clouds moved back in after some post flurry sun breaks earlier. Smells like snow, which is totally a scientific thing…at least I’m pretty sure. But don’t look it up. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like Mark is going with 19 at PDX tomorrow.

Just saw that WOW. Hard to believe the actual PDX could pull that off.

Will be weird to have sleet in the teens.

[icyasf]

It’s come to a time where I am just ignoring the models and looking out my window LOL. Don’t know why but I just have a feeling Corvallis will at least see some flakes from this before switching to ZR.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Looks like Mark is going with 19 at PDX tomorrow.

He’s also going with a quicker warm up by Tuesday though. I think PDX might have more trouble cracking freezing than that, at least until we get an onshore wind at some point on Wednesday. Especially if we have decent snowcover around.

[Cascadia_Wx]

2 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Just saw that WOW. Hard to believe the actual PDX could pull that off.

Will be weird to have sleet in the teens.

Hoping we avoid sleet. I always like the buffer of being a few miles north of the Columbia.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

If it’s gonna bust I think it will bust cold. Very curious to see what the precip falling temps verify. Coldest since 1968?

Pretty good odds. Guess if you want to be technical there were some 15 degree flurries on 12/24/1983 that amounted to a dusting in Portland. But a chance they actually go below that anyways.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

West Willamette Valley filling up now with McMinnville & Dallas now getting down into the 30s.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Corvallis has switched from BSF to NE winds. This is happening very fast.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hoping we avoid sleet. I always like the buffer of being a few miles north of the Columbia.

There may be a meme about this...

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Hoping we avoid sleet. I always like the buffer of being a few miles north of the Columbia.

850mb cold pools are usually a little more resilient over Clark County overall, though not as much so as with areas immediately east of the Coast Range. But in a precip grab bag scenario like February 2021 or January 1980 with near freezing temps up there, we do a pretty good job of keeping the column in check.

Edited January 12 by BLI snowman

[Cascadia_Wx]

PDX in the 20s. Should be FaLliNg ThRoUgH tHeM for the rest of the day now.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Corvallis has switched from BSF to NE winds. This is happening very fast.

Looks like the east valley Molalla to about Silverton are about 30-45 minutes from hitting freezing as they have dropped to the 33-35 range. Salem will probably be very close to freezing if not there by 5pm. 

[Tanis Leach]

Meanwhile, in Johnson Creek

[Poulsbo Snowman]

I haven't made it out of the teens yet today.  It's freaking could out there.

[LowerGarfield]

5 degrees here (a few blocks away, the local WU station says 2F). Tonight will go negative. It will be as cold here as in KC tomorrow (not looking to restart the game discussion).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

PDX in the 20s. Should be FaLliNg ThRoUgH tHeM for the rest of the day now.

This might really be happening. 

17 at Cascade Locks now. I also notice areas around 2000' in the Gorge are in the single digits. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

2 minutes ago, Poulsbo Snowman said:

I haven't made it out of the teens yet today.  It's freaking could out there.

Been over 30 years since that happened

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Pretty amazing to have these top shelf arctic events the last few years. 

[TacomaWx]

Tomorrow’s weather system! Really exciting stuff could set an all time record low tonight as well.