January 2024 Weather in the PNW (Part II)

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I just do windows key + shift + s to use the windows snipping tool.
 

Worked great.  Thanks!

[Blizzard777]

15 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Wall to wall sunshine from Bellingham to Olympia today... but clouds seem to be stuck farther south. 

Great day to go explore some local waterways or falls!  I bet they’re decorated nicely by now.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The whole package that winter was amazing down this way.  Snow with the big blast, the March snow, and a snow in early January in some places.

For the life of me I can NOT remember 89. I do remember a event around that time with a little snow and very cold, I remember there was only 1 inch but snow drifts everywhere.  That must of been it. How much snow did Seattle get?

[Andstorm]

On the one hand, I agree with those who are arguing we should be more pleased with the remarkable cold. However, being in Portland area, I can’t help but be pretty D**n disappointed that we seemingly had 90% of the ingredients for a memorable, lasting snowstorm and it didn’t deliver. I had friends and family who aren’t into weather asking me why it didn’t just snow and my answer was simple, it wasn’t cold enough. You can imagine I got some confused reactions considering it was 12 degrees at the surface. it’s just a good reminder that looking at those 850 and 925 temps is everything. I was guilty like a lot of people including professional forecasters of dismissing the models which clearly showed a warm tongue pushing those upper level temps up to a point where pure snow wasn’t going to be viable. It’s easy to discount those when we have such extreme cold at surface. And yes, while we did have a great snow event last february here in portland, the typical scenario over past few years is we get these incursions of arctic air but can never maintain a true cold column. I’m just hoping we can come out the other end without a major ice nightmare now. Down here in Portland area we are notorious for failing to account for stubbornness of cold air during transitions. The only thing that generates a quick warmup is a strong south wind, which we may or may not get. If we don’t, i wouldn’t be shocked at all if much of metro is locked into below freezing temps at surface through much of wednesday. models are worthless in these scenarios. I’ve been stuck at or below freezing for 2-3 days beyond model predictions. It’s like we never learn our lesson. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That shows a bad ice storm here. 

Can't rule it out.  Very odd situation.  I may end up thankful for the east wind eating the moisture here on this one.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, Andstorm said:

On the one hand, I agree with those who are arguing we should be more pleased with the remarkable cold. However, being in Portland area, I can’t help but be pretty D**n disappointed that we seemingly had 90% of the ingredients for a memorable, lasting snowstorm and it didn’t deliver. I had friends and family who aren’t into weather asking me why it didn’t just snow and my answer was simple, it wasn’t cold enough. You can imagine I got some confused reactions considering it was 12 degrees at the surface. it’s just a good reminder that looking at those 850 and 925 temps is everything. I was guilty like a lot of people including professional forecasters of dismissing the models which clearly showed a warm tongue pushing those upper level temps up to a point where pure snow wasn’t going to be viable. It’s easy to discount those when we have such extreme cold at surface. And yes, while we did have a great snow event last february here in portland, the typical scenario over past few years is we get these incursions of arctic air but can never maintain a true cold column. I’m just hoping we can come out the other end without a major ice nightmare now. Down here in Portland area we are notorious for failing to account for stubbornness of cold air during transitions. The only thing that generates a quick warmup is a strong south wind, which we may or may not get. If we don’t, i wouldn’t be shocked at all if much of metro is locked into below freezing temps at surface through much of wednesday. models are worthless in these scenarios. I’ve been stuck at or below freezing for 2-3 days beyond model predictions. It’s like we never learn our lesson. 

Yeah... its a totally different situation in Portland with sea level outflow through the gorge.   The Seattle area mixes  out so much more efficiently thanks to pass level outflow and the Chehalis providing pathway for warmer air from the ocean.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

For the life of me I can NOT remember 89. I do remember a event around that time with a little snow and very cold, I remember there was only 1 inch but snow drifts everywhere.  That must of been it. How much snow did Seattle get?

I had 5 inches or something like that and almost a foot in March.  I lived in the C-Zone area at the time and we got several inches in January as well.

[Phishy Wx]

STRONG WINTER STORM LOOKS TO BRING HEAVY SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE 
INLAND NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY...

Tuesday through Thursday: Model ensembles have continue the trend 
toward the wetter solutions for the Tuesday night through Wednesday 
period with a trend toward a significant winter storm to impact the 
region. Snow accumulations have seen a significant boost. Even though 
the trend is toward the potential for a significant winter storm, 
there are 20-40% of ensemble members that indicate a weaker upper 
level low pressure trough. The ensemble members that show a weaker 
trough look to be shrinking and going more into the minority. The 
most likely scenario is for a fairly robust shortwave trough of 
lower pressure to shift across the near the border of Washington and 
Oregon. A health does of dynamics aloft with a potent vorticity 
maximum and favorable jet dynamics looks to spin up a surface low 
that would result in a deformation band across the heart of the 
forecast area. There looks to be plenty of moisture overriding an 
Arctic airmass. There are a significant number of model ensembles 
that paint this rather ideal scenario for seeing heavy snow across a 
large portion of the forecast area where many places will see the 
potential for 8+ inches of snowfall. The other factor will be the 
high snow ratios on the order of 13-15/1 ratios across the southern 
half of the forecast area and closer to 15-18/1 ratios with the a 
rough line delineating north/south being the Highway 2 (eastern 
Washington) to I-90 corridor (Idaho). There is low confidence of 
around 30% of breezy winds on the Palouse with gusts up to 20 mph 
that could produce bowing and drifting snow. This will largely 
depend on the track of the surface low, but general consensus is 
that the track will be too far south of the region to result strong 
enough winds for blowing snow. Below are probabilistic information 
from the National Blend of Models for snow accumulations.

For at least 2" of snow:
*Spokane = 99%
*Sandpoint = 99%
*Pullman/Moscow = 70-75%
*Lewiston = 10-15%
*Wenatchee = 50-55%
*Moses Lake = 50-55%
*Omak = 50-55%

For at least 6" of snow:
*Spokane = 50-55%
*Sandpoint = 80-85%
*Pullman/Moscow = 25-30%
*Lewiston = less than 5%
*Wenatchee = less than 5%
*Moses Lake = 10-15%
*Omak = 5-10%

For at least 8" of snow:
*Spokane = 35-40%
*Sandpoint = 70-75%
*Pullman/Moscow = 10-15%
*Lewiston = 1%
*Wenatchee = less than 1%
*Moses Lake = less than 5%
*Omak = 1%

For at least a foot of snow:
*Spokane = 10-15%
*Sandpoint = 40-50%
*Pullman/Moscow = less than 5%
*Lewiston = less than 1%
*Wenatchee = less than 1%
*Moses Lake = less than 5%
*Omak = less than 1%

[T-Town]

Low of 16 here. Already at my high for yesterday at 24.1. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 minutes ago, Doinko said:

RGEM shows significant ice in Portland and a lot of the valley on Tuesday/Wednesday. 0.75" with most of the precipitation falling in the low 20s

The coveted regionwide event!

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Ugghh.   The gorge goes from being your friend to being an enemy. 

Such is life in an outflow zone.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Low of 16 here. Already at my high for yesterday at 24.1. 

Just hit my high from yesterday as well. Currently 20 and rising rapidly. At this rate we might actually get above freezing before sunset. 

Edited January 14 by MossMan

[the_convergence_zone]

Glad to see my resident hummingbird is still alive this morning but all of the competition for the feeder appears to have perished. My friend said she found a dead hummingbird outside of her door yesterday. 
 

With the sun shining we should be above freezing this afternoon in Seattle, I’m already above yesterday’s high. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... its a totally different situation in Portland with sea level outflow through the gorge.   The Seattle area mixes  out so much more efficiently thanks to pass level outflow and the Chehalis providing pathway for warmer air from the ocean.

That gap comes around me, that is the reason the cold air stays longer here for the most part.

[snow_wizard]

Just ran the numbers.  It appears SEA will have the 8th coldest 4 day stretch in January on record.  1 - 7 were all from 1950.  Wow!

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Just hit my high from yesterday as well. Currently 20 and rising rapidly. At this rate we might actually get above freezing before sunset. 

Should be right around freezing for the high today.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That gap comes around me, that is the reason the cold air stays longer here for the most part.

Exactly. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Glad to see my resident hummingbird is still alive this morning but all of the competition for the feeder appears to have perished. My friend said she found a dead hummingbird outside of her door yesterday. 
 

With the sun shining we should be above freezing this afternoon in Seattle, I’m already above yesterday’s high. 

That is sad.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Should be right around freezing for the high today.

And crash again this evening thanks to clear skies and light wind.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That long discussion says a trough of low pressure will move across the border of Washington and oregon???

[SnarkyGoblin]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Could somebody please tell me how to do a screen shot from the tables that this site generates.  Alt / print screen doesn't work.  I've seen people do it so I know it's possible.

xmACIS2 (rcc-acis.org)

The Windows tool snippet is your friend.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

That long discussion says a trough of low pressure will move across the border of Washington and oregon???

If it does... that is just wrong.  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

If it does... that is just wrong.  

Yes I saw that and was alarmed a moment lol

[Cascadia_Wx]

Currently overcast and 19 here after a low of 14. Winds are much calmer than at this time yesterday, and the snow/sleet looks just as pristine as it did last night.

Should crack 20 here in the next few hours. Still, going on 36 hours below 20 degrees. That is incredibly impressive for this area. It’s been decades since we’ve seen something similar.

[Hawksfan2008]

The EURO is so D**n close… slight southward shift. 

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

Yes I saw that and was alarmed a moment lol

12Z ECMWF... slight north shift from 00Z run.    

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Hawksfan2008 said:

The EURO is so D**n close… slight southward shift. 

From 06Z run... slight shift north from 00Z run.  

The upper level trough is also weaker and farther north on this run.   Its farther away from being able to really pull down cold air than it appears.    Even north of the low the temps are marginal.  

[GHweatherChris]

LAME

[iFred]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

It's kind of frustrating to me that people can't appreciate an historic cold snap.  That is part of winter after all.

Jim, you’ve been excited over highs in the low 40s in the dead of winter. The enthusiasm and level of appreciation you have for even the slightest semblance of a crisp day will forever go unmatched.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

People are just wore out.

I agree. I’d quit the models for a few weeks if I could.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF... slight north shift from 00Z run.    

Looks possible for me

[TT-SEA]

Run to run change shows the trough/ULL needed to really pull down the cold air being farther north on this run than the 00Z run.  

[T-Town]

My phone is keeping the faith. 

[Deweydog]

Still in the upper 20’s out at the coast this morning. Just an epic ice storm out there with about an inch of sleet capped with pure glaze.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Looks possible for me

Also Bellingham which would be a nice way to even out some bad luck recently up there in terms of snow.   Thinking about alerting my 80-year old mom today.    She tells me she is going to shovel the driveway if it snows like my dad always did.    That is not going to happen! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

That euro run is so close it isn't funny. You can see it try to pull in some colder air at the end. Going to be close.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF keeps the dream alive for mid week.

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Run to run change shows the trough/ULL needed to really pull down the cold air being farther north on this run than the 00Z run.  

Better than the 6z though.  We still have a shot.

Last night's graph cast was the best run yet with it so we'll see how that looks today.