T-Town Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Total snow per GFS which also over-estimates precip. Somehow doesn't show 18 inches of snow along the I-5 corridor! GFS is underestimating the PMO - Pacific Mossman Oscillation. 2 1 5 1 1 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, KingstonWX said: Wow, they need to get watches/warnings out. Even the cold GFS shows most of the freezing rain in Seattle with a temp of 32 or 33 which is not great for ice accumulations. The GFS just assumes ice accumulates the same at 20 degrees as it does at 32. That is definitely not the case. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 14 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said: ECMWF shows it being 16°F at Snoqualmie Pass at 10 PM tomorrow night and only up to 25°F by Wednesday afternoon. How cold do the east winds have to be then? One additional note... last December it warmed up faster up here than it did in North Bend and expect that to be similar this time around. Freezing rain issues will be worse the lower you go in the Snoqualmie Valley. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 16 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Going to need at least 2 inches of precip or more since this won't be powder... not sure how that is possible but who knows?? If his dewpoint stays low the temp could fall into the mid to upper 20's with snow fall. 1 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rubus Leucodermis Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 15 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said: Most of the city is still without power. Finally got ours back only a few blocks from the substation. With another inch of ice tomorrow, most of the trees will break and fall. Easily the worst ice storm in Springfield history. We have had more ice accumulation than snow accumulation since Dec 2021. You need to update those last subfreezing high stats in your signature block. 2 Quote It's called clown range for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Global models mean nothing at this range except pattern recognition. we're less than 36 hours from the event. pay attention to the mesos 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Wenatchee has now spent the length of an ENTIRE NAM run in the single digits. 1 3 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawksfan2008 Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Days of freezing rain according to the GFS 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Total snow per GFS which also over-estimates precip. Somehow doesn't show 18 inches of snow along the I-5 corridor! But wait!! If the low moves south there can't be snow north of it!!!!???? 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 made to 10 here. first double digits IMBY since early Thursday AM Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Only sitting at 24 right now. High so far today has been 26, several degrees cooler than I had been expecting. I'll have to see how this compares to past cold snaps, but for us its in the ballpark with January 2017 and February 2014, not quite as cold as December 2013. 5 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 8 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Even the cold GFS shows most of the freezing rain in Seattle with a temp of 32 or 33 which is not great for ice accumulations. The GFS just assumes ice accumulates the same at 20 degrees as it does at 32. That is definitely not the case. One thing I was thinking of today was that the ground is really cold, it is 33 here but the ground is actually 29 to 30. Interesting observation. I never really thought of it like that. 2 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 The cold hard fact is I don't trust the gfs at all, it might be on to something but if the ecm stays put on the 00z run tonight then a southern landfall probably isn't going to happen. Interesting though the gfs isn't on its own and the rgem is following its idea. 3 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
awright-31 Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: One thing I was thinking of today was that the ground is really cold, it is 33 here but the ground is actually 29 to 30. Interesting observation. I never really thought of it like that. But the warm road temps will prevent accumula... wait a minute. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tanis Leach Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 So the Beavers just landed Damarius Clemsons (4 star) from Michigan. I am now convinced this arctic blast was a foreshadowing of his commitment. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deweydog Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 The gorge may NEVER thaw. 2 Quote My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 The dog loves IMG_7846.MOV the ice. 3 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 18Z GEFS... some decent members in there and some are north as well. None of them show 4-5 feet of snow in Arlington like the RGEM though. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilverFallsAndrew Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said: The dog loves IMG_7846.MOV the ice. Unfortunate we can't delete our own posts anymore because I don't believe this video actually uploaded. 1 Quote Snowfall Precip 2022-23: 95.0" 2022-23: 17.39" 2021-22: 52.6" 2021-22: 91.46" 2020-21: 12.0" 2020-21: 71.59" 2019-20: 23.5" 2019-20: 58.54" 2018-19: 63.5" 2018-19: 66.33" 2017-18: 30.3" 2017-18: 59.83" 2016-17: 49.2" 2016-17: 97.58" 2015-16: 11.75" 2015-16: 68.67" 2014-15: 3.5" 2013-14: 11.75" 2013-14: 62.30 2012-13: 16.75" 2012-13: 78.45 2011-12: 98.5" 2011-12: 92.67" It's always sunny at Winters Hill! Fighting the good fight against weather evil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phishy Wx Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 I am really impressed how cold it's stayed here with zero snow cover. I imagine it would've averaged 10 degrees colder with decent snow cover which would have been historic. oh well Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Much better! Chance of inch plus doubled for me. 9 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 8 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: The cold hard fact is I don't trust the gfs at all, it might be on to something but if the ecm stays put on the 00z run tonight then a southern landfall probably isn't going to happen. Interesting though the gfs isn't on its own and the rgem is following its idea. Another interesting thing is that the ECMWF has stopped shifting now. Consistent for last 5 runs. 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Euro is a terrible model. Its coming. 1 5 2 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 27 minutes ago, KingstonWX said: Wow, they need to get watches/warnings out. Not sure I’d pull the trigger on that without ECMWF support. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawniganLake Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 37 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: Total snow per GFS which also over-estimates precip. Somehow doesn't show 18 inches of snow along the I-5 corridor! Gfs gives us a second over running event later in the week and totals get a bit crazy here. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, Phil said: Not sure I’d pull the trigger on that without ECMWF support. ECMWF shows freezing rain as well. And that is probably worth a watch or warning now for all of western WA. 2 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prairiedog Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said: Only sitting at 24 right now. High so far today has been 26, several degrees cooler than I had been expecting. I'll have to see how this compares to past cold snaps, but for us its in the ballpark with January 2017 and February 2014, not quite as cold as December 2013. Dec 6 '13 my coldest temp I can remember where I'm at. 8f. Two mornings of 8. Coldest day was 18f. Creek froze over. That was impressive. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MR.SNOWMIZER Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 18z HRDPS looking more south again. And weaker. 5 Quote We come from the land of the ice and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MossMan Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: ECMWF shows freezing rain as well. And that is probably worth a watch or warning now for all of western WA. Roads and ground are going to be too warm. Cliff Mass. 1 Quote Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajreich Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Interesting, Euro ensembles have been trending colder longer the last 6 runs. Be curious as observation data keeps coming in on the cold side how that impacts 0z tonight. The air might be warming, but the ground is a frozen rock. I dont think we’ll hit 25 today, stalled at 23 and the sun is sinking. 3 Quote Location 850’ NW Hills in Portland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajreich Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: 18Z GEFS... some decent members in there and some are north as well. None of them show 4-5 feet of snow in Arlington like the RGEM though. That low position tho. Gorge winds will be howling for Portland. 1 Quote Location 850’ NW Hills in Portland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doinko Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Roads are covered in snow, no melting happened today in the sun. Solid 3" depth on average. 30/21 so far today, I think we could get a midnight low. We were at 14 degrees during the storm so hopefully we can get colder tomorrow morning. Overall I'd definitely say this has been my favorite stretch of winter weather since January 2017 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slushy Inch Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said: 18z HRDPS looking more south again. And weaker. Old news but yes Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meatyorologist Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 On the edge here in North Seattle. Almost don't even want to watch models/radar, it's so nauseatingly close to seeing snow here. 8 Quote Weather stats for MBY Snowfall: -Total snowfall since joining: 50.25" -2018-19: 21" -2019-20: 2.5" -2020-21: 13" -2021-22: 8.75" -2022-23: 5.75" -2023-24*: 0.25" -Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024 -Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021 -Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019 Temperatures: -Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021 -Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021 -Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajreich Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 4 hours ago, Cascadia_Wx said: You have a gorgeous view Thanks! We’re actually moving in a couple of weeks up to a place off Skyline. The view here is nice, but the winds and traffic noise from 405 mean we can’t enjoy the deck as much as you’d think, even when the weather is nice. Plus our new place is up around 1000ft, so better weather 2 Quote Location 850’ NW Hills in Portland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bainbridgekid Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 Nice improvement on the 18z GEFS. Percent of members showing at least 1” and 4”: Bellingham: 100 - 90 Mt. Vernon: 84 - 45 Everett: 68 - 42 Seattle: 32 - 6 7 Quote Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation) Snow since February 2019: 91" 2023-24: 6" 2022-23: 17.5" 2021-22: 17.75" 2020-21: 14.5” 2019-20: 10.5" 2018-19: 24.75" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 If it’s a marginal setup w/ terrain dependence/low level cold, then I’d ride the Euro/NAM hard. Just based on my personal experience. RGEM is good w/ mesoscale precip dynamics (sometimes better than NAM) but I’ve noticed it can sometimes overestimate nocturnal & wet bulb cooling when the boundary layer isn’t saturated at initialization (previous runs had us in the teens today and the result was mid-20s). 4 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 13 minutes ago, TT-SEA said: ECMWF shows freezing rain as well. And that is probably worth a watch or warning now for all of western WA. I see. Haven’t looked at modeled soundings, so in that case I’d probably consider a watch in climo favored areas. 1 Quote Live Weather Cam: https://www.youtube.com/live/KxlIo8-KVpc?si=xKLCFYWbZieAfyh6 PWS Wunderground https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KMDBETHE62 PWS CWOP/NOAA: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=F3819&hours=72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post Slushy Inch Posted January 15 Popular Post Report Share Posted January 15 Jan 27th 8 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TT-SEA Posted January 15 Report Share Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said: On the edge here in North Seattle. Almost don't even want to watch models/radar, it's so nauseatingly close to seeing snow here. Good point... its only 30 hours away now and it might be less stressful to watch observations and eventually radar and just enjoy it. There won't be any model consensus anyways. 2 1 Quote **REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.