January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[Phil]

Here comes the AAM spike.

[Willamette Weenie]

Feels like... coming from a self aware weather weenie, that the Willamette Valley, especially south has been seeing a lot more ice storm activity the past several years. Trying to understand the significance of climate change and how that might be impacting this region in regards to frozen precipitation. 

That or we're just heading into a new ice age and the PNW is leading the way. 

[LowerGarfield]

55 minutes ago, Phil said:

No doubt you guys are long overdue for a troughy summer. Has to happen eventually.

And we’re equally overdue for a ridgy, boring summer after years of epic severe seasons.

Can't speak for West Side, but I absolutely loved 2022 on the east side. Not terrible with smoke at my location other than maybe 3-4 days and even then it was relatively light compared with Western WA. We had late season snow in April here then it rained a ton in May and June and it was only hot on the backend and still relatively brief. It was nice because I basically took a summer off without worrying about local fires.

[Meatyorologist]

Forgot to post this earlier... My mom drove back from Eugene on Saturday through the winter storm. Her car ended up looking like this..

[Front Ranger]

41 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Light west south west wind at Roseburg and up to 37! 

Lol, they were never getting freezing rain...

[Ken in Wood Village]

Temperature has been falling the past hour because of the moisture approaching. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Mark now saying possible ice storm East Metro Thursday afternoon/evening. Our winter weather doesn’t want to end anytime soon!

 

[sherwoodor]

ZR has started here in Sherwood, OR as of about 15 mins ago. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Temperature has been falling the past hour because of the moisture approaching. 

Just heard it started sleeting in Tigard! 

[LowerGarfield]

36 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

NWS Spokane sticking to their guns, even upped the totals around CDA

 

Interesting that they moved their blowing snow areas slightly east. Obviously I can still get blowing snow but previously I was in the center of the circle.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Lol, they were never getting freezing rain...

No, but they were 35 earlier! 

[Snowdome]

Sleet just started here. 

[snow_wizard]

I can't imagine this verifying, but if it does the cold Jan is a lock.

[Front Ranger]

Corvallis reporting snow, I'm assuming that's sleet?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

It tried! Amplify and retrograde PLZ. 

[snow_wizard]

Not sure why the GFS hangs onto the cold so tenaciously on the last couple of runs.  At any rate it looks cold through Thursday at least.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

I can't imagine this verifying, but if it does the cold Jan is a lock.

I saw Salem had a -3.7F departure through yesterday, probably will be close to -5F by tomorrow. If I had to guess I would say the month ends up near average. We'll torch at some point, at least down here. 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 minutes ago, Snowdome said:

Sleet just started here. 

 

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Corvallis reporting snow, I'm assuming that's sleet?

It’s likely sleet. There’s a sleet signature on radar with the strong precipitation.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

It tried! Amplify and retrograde PLZ. 

Intriguing.

[Mercurial]

39 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

NWS Spokane sticking to their guns, even upped the totals around CDA

 

Same.  In our AFD, they say we have a “near 100%” chance of seeing >7”.  If this thing busts, let’s resolve to troll our local offices mercilessly cause this is amount of bullishness is ridiculous.

[Tyler Mode]

I saved this dewpoint map from earlier, you can see the cold air resurge out of the gorge.  Will it be cold enough for freezing rain?  Maybe right along the river.

Edited January 16 by Tyler Mode
Dewpoint*

[snow_wizard]

Tomorrow morning could be really bad around here.  The roads are so cold that the roads will probably be a sheet of ice even if temps are above freezing, and that's a big if.

[LowerGarfield]

16 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Same. My wife wasn’t able to work because of the internet outage.

Same reason I root against windstorms or events that cause me (or anyone) to lose power. I'm a telecommuter when I'm not on medical leave.

[Omegaraptor]

Precip has arrived here. It's bouncing off things. For now.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

I saved this from earlier, you can see the cold air resurge out of the gorge.  Will it be cold enough for freezing rain?  Maybe right along the river.

Wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.  This little cold air reinforcement coming up keeps the party going.

[Front Ranger]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Tomorrow morning could be really bad around here.  The roads are so cold that the roads will probably be a sheet of ice even if temps are above freezing, and that's a big if.

Yeah, Seattle NWS has freezing rain ending by midnight, with a low of 34 for SEA.

Seems rather optimistic. 

[SunAndSnow]

Initial precipitation is sleet. 29°

[TacomaWx]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, Seattle NWS has freezing rain ending by midnight, with a low of 34 for SEA.

Seems rather optimistic. 

I’d be surprised if we were above freezing by 6am tomorrow with how these things usually go. 

[LowerGarfield]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Tomorrow morning could be really bad around here.  The roads are so cold that the roads will probably be a sheet of ice even if temps are above freezing, and that's a big if.

Roads here are still not bare pavement from the snow we got last week. Lewiston sold their snow plows a few years ago and boy Lewiston/Clarkston side roads are way worse than mine. 

[Dave]

Still getting the ZR. I can hear tree branches break every once in a while. The power has flickered a couple of times. On a positive note, I have about 5000 brand new icicles.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, Seattle NWS has freezing rain ending by midnight, with a low of 34 for SEA.

Seems rather optimistic. 

 I was going to mention earlier that the initial band lasts about 4-5 hours and is north of the Seattle area by 2 a.m.     I also assume the dry air and east wind will keep the precip fairly light in that band up here.

[CasuallyFoxy]

Mostly ZR here in OC (on the south side of town).  It's maybe 10% sleet?

[Roman-Dallas Snow-Zone]

The intensity of this freezing rain is disturbing. It would easily turn into a catastrophic event if we don’t warm up early Wednesday AM or precipitation doesn’t stop. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

25% sleet, 75% ZR

26F, DP 15F

[Lars43]

32 minutes ago, Dave said:

Just checked. 29 degrees now. Zero wind though.

Definitely warming currently at 26. We are 12 miles north of the airport. 

[smerfylicious]

32 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Thoughts are with y’all in Oregon. Sure hope the zr isn’t awful. 

I originally read this in my head as "Thoughts are why are y'all in Oregon"

This is nicer on the 2nd reading

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Roads here are still not bare pavement from the snow we got last week. Lewiston sold their snow plows a few years ago and boy Lewiston/Clarkston side roads are way worse than mine. 

Sold their snow plows? WTF?

[Snowdome]

1 minute ago, CasuallyFoxy said:

Mostly ZR here in OC (on the south side of town).  It's maybe 10% sleet?

I’m nearby and almost all ZR now. This is gonna get messy

[FroYoBro]

Had a high of 29 again here. Now 27 with a mix of sleet and freezing rain. 

[iFred]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

My kids were quite fascinated by it this weekend while walking our trails. 

So many fun memories as a 1st grader and digging this stuff up at the bus stop. This was around the time that I learned about the positive weenie healing powers of wheel barrow ice, a tradition that I still keep to this very day.