January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot

[snow_wizard]

It's going to be interesting to see if the coming potential SSW and PV split will result in a surprise the second half of the month.  The first third of the month looks to be at least a bit on the cool side.  We could have done much worse this winter for sure.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Not bad. No Arctic air

I'll even take a nice frost right now.

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'll even take a nice frost right now.

Widespread frost with this

[snow_wizard]

Yay!

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yay!

A bit more realistic for January.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

A bit more realistic for January.

That map is actually approaching the middle of February!  

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the ECMWF is showing some places having frost Friday night now.

[snow_wizard]

Much nicer run overall.  A lot more cold night opportunities.

[Cloud]

Yesterday was 3rd consecutive day of 61/51 identical spread. Unusual would be an understatement.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That map is actually approaching the middle of February!  

Even better. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Looks like the cabin is locked into a strong inversion. had a 34/33 day yesterday. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Crazy how PDX metro could go like 2 weeks longer with highs above 50.

 

Better chance as you go down the valley.

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

That map is actually approaching the middle of February!  

You know it’s been a rough stretch when we start tracking frost opportunities in mid winter.   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Better times. Grants Pass, OR 1890. 

[TacomaWx]

15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Better times. Grants Pass, OR 1890. 

Sometimes I feel like it would’ve been nice to live in simpler technology free times. Then I remember the life expectancy was about half of what it is now back then. Modern medicine and science is a blessing and a curse I guess. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

[ShawniganLake]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Sometimes I feel like it would’ve been nice to live in simpler technology free times. Then I remember the life expectancy was about half of what it is now back then. Modern medicine and science is a blessing and a curse I guess. 

I’m 41, if this was the late 1800s I’d likely be nearing my expiration date. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

I’m 41, if this was the late 1800s I’d likely be nearing my expiration date. 

Yeah, if I had to pick a time in which to be born id pick the 1940s-1950s. Post WW2…lots of technological and scientific advancement and pre social media. The 1950s-1990s sounds like a great time to be alive for someone who was born in 1999. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Up to 66F in Springfield...

[Phil]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Out of the blue the models are going for an SSW and PV split a bit down the road.  The PV just splits at the end of the GFS.  The last few ECMWF runs are showing a big slowdown in 10mb zonal winds again as well.

That’s not a split.

[Phil]

For D15 that’s a very strong signal for +TNH/+PNA by mid-Feb on the 12z EPS.

At least 3 weeks of Tim-friendly weather coming up, from mid-month into at least the first week of March.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Better times. Grants Pass, OR 1890. 

Would've been very interesting to live back then, but I think the mid 1900s were the best times to live, although there were a lot of problems back then too, and all of the war was terrible.

The lack of modern medicine prior to the mid 1900s definitely would've have killed me as a child, there wasn't many ways to fight cancer back then, although I guess one still could've gotten lucky with radiation therapy, I believe that started in the early 1900s.

 

Modern technology these days is great and terrible at the same time, I definitely miss the days prior to most people having 5+ hours of screen time a day.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

37 here at bachelor right now, and 50 back at my house. Big dent in the snowpack these last few days, and the forecast does not look good. There's always March...

[TacomaWx]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

For D15 that’s a very strong signal for +TNH/+PNA by mid-Feb on the 12z EPS.

At least 3 weeks of Tim-friendly weather coming up, from mid-month into at least the first week of March.

Lol so you’re saying it’s over? Wish you were wrong but honestly I feel like it’s over as well personally below 1000’. 

[SnowWillarrive]

20 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Sometimes I feel like it would’ve been nice to live in simpler technology free times. Then I remember the life expectancy was about half of what it is now back then. Modern medicine and science is a blessing and a curse I guess. 

I just want our climate to go back 10,000 years. Even if that means Vancouver and Seattle will be buried. I’ll just relocate to Olympia.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I just want our climate to go back 10,000 years. Even if that means Vancouver and Seattle will be buried. I’ll just relocate to Olympia.

You can live in the forest steppe down here. A borderline tundra climate.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

12 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, if I had to pick a time in which to be born id pick the 1940s-1950s. Post WW2…lots of technological and scientific advancement and pre social media. The 1950s-1990s sounds like a great time to be alive for someone who was born in 1999. 

I like to sit and wonder what happened between 1900 and 1950.  In 1900 we barely had any sort of car and in 1950 we had huge navy ships and the Nuclear bomb. why did we advance so much in that 50 years compared to say 1600 to 1900.  

[TacomaWx]

4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I just want our climate to go back 10,000 years. Even if that means Vancouver and Seattle will be buried. I’ll just relocate to Olympia.

Best I can offer is Alaska or NW territories. 

[TacomaWx]

Just now, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I like to sit and wonder what happened between 1900 and 1950.  In 1900 we barely had any sort of car and in 1950 we had huge navy ships and the Nuclear bomb. why did we advance so much in that 50 years compared to say 1600 to 1900.  

Aliens. In all seriousness the industrial age and the advancements of technology in the late 19th and 20th centuries is fascinating. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

10 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Would've been very interesting to live back then, but I think the mid 1900s were the best times to live, although there were a lot of problems back then too, and all of the war was terrible.

The lack of modern medicine prior to the mid 1900s definitely would've have killed me as a child, there wasn't many ways to fight cancer back then, although I guess one still could've gotten lucky with radiation therapy, I believe that started in the early 1900s.

 

Modern technology these days is great and terrible at the same time, I definitely miss the days prior to most people having 5+ hours of screen time a day.

I really believe AI tech will cure cancer and many other issues. But i also believe it will destroy humanity.

[Omegaraptor]

16 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I’m 41, if this was the late 1800s I’d likely be nearing my expiration date. 

The low life expectancy back then was because infant mortality was very high. Although this was also before antibiotics. A little cut or scrape becoming infected could easily turn into a "get it amputated or you die" situation.

[SnowWillarrive]

4 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

I like to sit and wonder what happened between 1900 and 1950.  In 1900 we barely had any sort of car and in 1950 we had huge navy ships and the Nuclear bomb. why did we advance so much in that 50 years compared to say 1600 to 1900.  

Imagine how crazy it might be by 2100. If we even make it that far. 

[Phil]

8 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Lol so you’re saying it’s over? Wish you were wrong but honestly I feel like it’s over as well personally below 1000’. 

I’m not ready to say it’s over. Always a chance for something backdoor with that pattern.

Or if not, then second week of March onwards is still up in the air. Not sure how it is up there, but we we more snowfall in March than December. It’s as much as winter month as any.

[Phil]

12 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I just want our climate to go back 10,000 years. Even if that means Vancouver and Seattle will be buried. I’ll just relocate to Olympia.

Cordilleran Ice Sheet had already retreated by 10,000BP. Glacial maximum was ~ 18,000BP.

[ShawniganLake]

7 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not ready to say it’s over. Always a chance for something backdoor with that pattern.

Or if not, then second week of March onwards is still up in the air. Not sure how it is up there, but we we more snowfall in March than December. It’s as much as winter month as any.

Takes something pretty special for a significant event after the first week of March.  Keep in mind that our winters statistically peak in December. Our averages are already rising pretty noticeably by mid to late January

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not ready to say it’s over. Always a chance for something backdoor with that pattern.

Or if not, then second week of March onwards is still up in the air. Not sure how it is up there, but we we more snowfall in March than December. It’s as much as winter month as any.

Sun angles start to get pretty brutal in March

[Phil]

Even with the massive ice sheets it’s difficult to fathom just how much colder North America was during glacial maximum compared to now.

Where I live now was barren tundra grasses/scrub. Blows my mind. Now it’s full on tropical 4+ months per year. Where Minneapolis sits now was as cold as Antarctica.

And all this happened with little to no change in globally averaged insolation. Just a slight change in its distribution.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

8 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

Imagine how crazy it might be by 2100. If we even make it that far. 

Yeah, i can't even begin to imagine what it'll be like by then. It's weird now, because back in 1700 for example you could easily think we would all be alive in 1900, but now with nuclear bombs, it's not too unrealistic to imagine all of us getting wiped before the 22nd century. That probably won't happen but you never know.

[Phil]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Sun angles start to get pretty brutal in March

Rates trump insolation. As long as it’s not 32°F snizzle it’ll accumulate.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

22 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Aliens. In all seriousness the industrial age and the advancements of technology in the late 19th and 20th centuries is fascinating. 

I honestly believe we had help of some sort.