Jump to content

January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

How did they do in February 2021? 

Not sure, but one of the members up there mentioned this being the third in a row.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Not sure how you folks up north are doing on precipitation this month, but we are running some modest surpluses down here. Almost a total lock to end up at least average and with wet weather ahead will probably be above average by the time all is said and done. 

I saw some 60 burgers at the end of the latest Euro run, Andrew :(

  • Like 1
  • Sun 1
  • Sick 4

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is cool, we are right on the edge of the warm and cold air masses, keep ping ponging between fog and 30 degrees and clear(er) and 37. Change happens almost instantaneously. 

IMG_2132.thumb.jpeg.e01b16ea1b62d9c06cdf6ebfdf0123b9.jpeg

Bad news is we had a pipe burst with the thaw. No water for us 🙁

  • Like 7
  • Sad 2

Location 850’ NW Hills in Portland

Link to comment
Share on other sites

image.png

image.png

...

  • Sun 1
  • scream 1
  • Sick 1
  • bongocat-test 1

Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 31

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No doubt the end of the month has the interest of the models right now.

1706745600-DPvvFBzd7hM.png

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 2
  • scream 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, snow_wizard said:

No doubt the end of the month has the interest of the models right now.

1706745600-DPvvFBzd7hM.png

This run is a few minor details away from a real blast. As is a chilly little weather maker from the north drops in. 

  • Like 4

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Wind has gone calm at PDX, and they are sitting at freezing at the 3 o’clock hour. I wonder if the southerlies will break through there soon.

Still have light easterlies here, and holding at 31. Pouring out there but it’s close enough to freezing now where ice isn’t accumulating as quickly.

  • Like 5

Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

It’s too bad we couldn’t get a little more snow with the mid and upper levels cooling and cold air remaining at the surface. Kind of like they’re seeing up north today. But that’s definitely wishful thinking.

Unfortunate balance. 850s do briefly go below freezing for us today but by then the rest of the column is f*cked and completely saturated, and offshore flow doesn't reassert itself until tomorrow as the upper levels resume warming. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Low level cold hung on a lot longer as usual. Thought I might have a chance of getting to work today but the car is still a popsicle and the side roads very treacherous.

Impressive that even mets who have been here for many years still bust on this. Mark's forecast last night for 4PM in Portland was FORTY SIX DEGREES. Currently 32.

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Euro agrees with the rest of the models in showing the strong outflow tomorrow. Just keeps temps a degree or two too warm for ZR. 

It also shows the gorge fully mixing out tonight with the westerly surge behind the low, so that's probably the kicker in terms of keeping our coolant supply sufficient for tomorrow's precip. But the Euro is likely being too aggressive with that gorge warmup as it has been with ours in the metro area. So it seems like a midday dip below freezing is very possible.

I think it’s a classic case of EURO overdoing the warmup but GFS seems pretty off its meds with outflow pushing temps back to the 20s with fairly substantial and widespread ZR. Such a scenario would be almost unprecedented in my 40 years of living in this area and being pretty glued to weather events. What is instead likely to occur is areas in Gorge never warm up and they experience a second surge of nasty weather tomorrow and probably beyond. The extended Gorge events are a dime a dozen and this has all the ingredients for another one. 

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I saw some 60 burgers at the end of the latest Euro run, Andrew :(

Uh oh. 

  • Sick 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, CliffMassYelledAtMe said:

You didn't see the NWS update? Your WWA has been extended and you have a WSW for tomorrow.

I thought the mid levels would be too warm for the next system, but the latest GFS shows it being a close call tomorrow evening.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, OysterPrintout said:

Low level cold hung on a lot longer as usual. Thought I might have a chance of getting to work today but the car is still a popsicle and the side roads very treacherous.

Impressive that even mets who have been here for many years still bust on this. Mark's forecast last night for 4PM in Portland was FORTY SIX DEGREES. Currently 32.

It happens every time. incredibly smart, well meaning mets fall for the model mirage of fast warmups. It’s tricky because usually when the true warmup comes it goes pretty quick. But I don’t know a fraction of what Mark knows and told everyone I knew not to listen to mets and plan on it being near freezing most day. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The end of the GFS is very intriguing, but doesn't quite get there. 

  • Thanks 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

This run is a few minor details away from a real blast. As is a chilly little weather maker from the north drops in. 

The CFS has shown a lot of interest in this period.

It would be amazing to get more cold so soon after this given the circumstances.  MJO baby!

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The end of the GFS is very intriguing, but doesn't quite get there. 

With a few tweaks this is a lot like last week.

1706810400-pxdZMFhnrLQ.png

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, RCola said:

Honestly bring it. Tired of chilly rain and dry cold. Need a hard reset.

I tend to agree. the slow death of these patterns generates a lot of “one last hope” type analysis. best to just hard reset this thing and see if we get a reload of some kind down road. not counting on it. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

With i90 now closed over Snoqualmie Pass (nothing posted as to when it will reopen but it closed before the scheduled closure at 3 which was for avalanche control because of accidents, so probably a bit)

AND 

Stevens Pass closed with a posted " no estimated time for reopening" 

AND

White Pass closed due to a snow slide with again a posted "no estimate to reopening" 

All eyes are on the Gorge as the only way from western WA to Eastern WA. Hope they can reopen i90 soon!

  • scream 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, snow_wizard said:

With a few tweaks this is a lot like last week.

1706810400-pxdZMFhnrLQ.png

Yeah, I'd like to see the energy in the pacific a little further west and a prettier ridge, but it's close. Here is what I thought was the best frame of the CFS. 

prateptype_cat-met.na.png

500h_anom.na.png

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
  • lol 1
  • Shivering 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Andstorm said:

I think it’s a classic case of EURO overdoing the warmup but GFS seems pretty off its meds with outflow pushing temps back to the 20s with fairly substantial and widespread ZR. Such a scenario would be almost unprecedented in my 40 years of living in this area and being pretty glued to weather events. What is instead likely to occur is areas in Gorge never warm up and they experience a second surge of nasty weather tomorrow and probably beyond. The extended Gorge events are a dime a dozen and this has all the ingredients for another one. 

Definitely. Anything below 32 or maybe 31 at PDX with the surge tomorrow would be a major surprise. Should hopefully keep any ice accumulations light. The precip rates look pretty heavy and the timing would be disastrous with it coinciding with the evening commute, so hopefully we avoid it altogether. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

With a few tweaks this is a lot like last week.

1706810400-pxdZMFhnrLQ.png

Phil says that is impossible until late February. 

  • Excited 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even though it was only 2” it was nice that today wasn’t a true overrunner…Trees are still flocked with flurries again instead of meltfest and slop 

Edited by MossMan
  • Like 7

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Very heavy sleet, around 3pm when I left to pick up my son. It switched to snow when I came back. 

  • Like 4

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2023-2024 Snowfall totals: 14.3 inches

HIghest snow total (per event): 5.8 inches total 1/11/24 - 1/12/24.

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 0.20 inches on 2/26/24

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 12/01/23 (0.60), 1/8/24 (1.0), 1/10/24 (3.5), 1/11/23 (3.5 inches with Thundersnow; separate event from prior day), 1/12/24 (2.30). 1/14/24 (T), 1/17/24 (1.20 inches), 1/18/24 (1.5 inches), 1/19/24 (0.20), 2/09/24 (0.30), 2/26/24 (0.20-mainly graupel)

First Freeze: 10/27/2023

Last Sub freezing Day: 1/20/24 (12th) (8 days in a row from 1/12/24-1/20/24)

Coldest low: -12F (!!!!!!!!) (1/12/24)

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Grateful for any help y’all have given. Springfield is an absolute disaster right now. Hard to believe how bad it is.

Venmo is @Jerseys4Hope if possible. I can’t believe that we don’t even have water.  

 

 

 

  • Sad 6

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 20 (Most recent: Feb 13, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...