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January Weather In The PNW 2024 (Part III) - The Warming Shot


iFred

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Once we do scour out, it's a pretty ugly pattern. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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40 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

It is amazing, one night at my cabin we had -10 snowfall, about 4 inches and it was the most amazing powder ever! I remember after it snowed and the moon came out everything was glittering. 

Yeah we get plenty of below zero snowfall but the intensity of this is definitely the highest I've seen.

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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The end of the 18z GFS was actually mildly interesting. The pattern is definitely going to have to reset though before we get another shot. Wasn't expecting this shot, but hoping for maybe something in the February/March 2020 type of range. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Once we do scour out, it's a pretty ugly pattern. 

I am pretty sure you like rain every day.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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This upcoming system is really reminding me of all the times we end up with a crazy nowcast that says something to the effect of, "the low came onshore further south than models predicted...."

Yes, I'm being hopefully optimistic, but it really does remind me of a few past experiences. 

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This is something we don't need for my area 😞

 

Troutdale OR


 

Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Portland OR
631 PM PST Sun Jan 14 2024

ORZ006-151315-
/O.NEW.KPQR.WI.Y.0002.240115T0800Z-240116T1800Z/
Greater Portland Metro Area-
Including the cities of Hillsboro, Portland, Wilsonville,
Oregon City, Gresham, and Troutdale
631 PM PST Sun Jan 14 2024

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM PST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Northeast winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts 40 to 50 mph
  expected. Strongest winds likely near the Columbia Gorge and
  across the West Hills of Portland.

* WHERE...Greater Portland Metro Area.

* WHEN...From midnight tonight to 10 AM PST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Trees or tree limbs could be blown down and power
  outages may result. Gusty winds could blow around unsecured
  objects.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Strongest winds will initially be limited
  to the Gorge and elevated terrain, but will become more
  widespread during the day Monday, persisting through Tuesday
  morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared for potential power outages. Make sure your cell
phone is charged in case you lose power. Use extra caution when
driving, especially if operating a high profile vehicle. Secure
outdoor objects.
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Just now, TT-SEA said:

I am pretty sure you like rain every day.   

Looks like pretty mild rain once we scour the cold air out of the lower levels, and here the scouring will occur within a few hours Tuesday night. In the winter I would prefer cold rain, save this stuff for spring. The 18z GFS was actually a really nice progression though. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 minute ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looking good 😎 

Got some sledding in today but it took some work.  Shoveled all the snow in our front yard into one long track and then sprayed it down with water from backpack sprayer.  Worked better than I expected.  Kids had a blast. 

television 80s GIF

Way to MacGyver this

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Any sage words of wisdom on Tuesday night system?   We are all lost.  

No brainer down here, but I haven’t been following the situation up north at all. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

Among all the snow/sleet/snow/sleet/sleet/snow/sleet/ssleet/snow/sleet/snowstorm madness yesterday I totally missed that Omak put up a 2/-13 yesterday. That’s legit.

I thought I saw a couple all time record lows in the BC Okanagan for stations with a shorter POR. I’ll go back and look. 

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Looks like a 23/17 day at PDX. 22/15 here. Mostly cloudy with light east winds and staying frigid. Really nice how much the cold overachieved today. Probably bodes well for some wintery precip going into Tuesday night.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

No brainer down here, but I haven’t been following the situation up north at all. 

No brainer meaning freezing rain?   When do you think PDX mixes out?

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Roads cleared up enough today, thanks to the dry, sleety nature of the snow, that it was possible to get a trip to the Gorge in. Just incredible out there with temps hanging in the mid teens this afternoon. Pics to come.

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Summer ☀️ grows while Winter ❄️  goes

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Just now, TT-SEA said:

No brainer meaning freezing rain?   When do you think PDX mixes out?

It’ll retreat in a manner similar to pretty much any other high-end low level cold event mix out. Probably will take at least 8-12 hours longer than what any model is depicting. 

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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ICON shows a plausible scenario with low just falling apart as it moves inland... this appears to happen because the 500mb trough doesn't dig as much as previous runs.  

icon-all-nw-mslp-1705276800-1705435200-1705532400-10.gif

icon-all-nw-z500_anom-1705276800-1705428000-1705546800-10.gif

icon-all-nw-t925-1705276800-1705446000-1705532400-10.gif

icon-all-nw-total_snow_10to1-5536000.png

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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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4 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Roads cleared up enough today, thanks to the dry, sleety nature of the snow, that it was possible to get a trip to the Gorge in. Just incredible out there with temps hanging in the mid teens this afternoon. Pics to come.

We’re gonna take a spin out there tomorrow. First ice trip since January 14, 2017😱 Hoping the gap winds are doing their thing tomorrow.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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11 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Really sad to see several folks in the Portland area have died due to hypothermia this weekend.

At some point, city officials need to held responsible for practically endorsing transients having the right to camp outside. Some of them have even explicitly endorsed it. It's simply not safe. 

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1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

ICON shows a plausible scenario with low just falling apart as it moves inland... this appears to happen because the 500mb trough doesn't dig as much as previous runs.  

icon-all-nw-mslp-1705276800-1705435200-1705532400-10.gif

icon-all-nw-z500_anom-1705276800-1705428000-1705546800-10.gif

icon-all-nw-t925-1705276800-1705446000-1705532400-10.gif

icon-all-nw-total_snow_10to1-5536000.png

That definitely wouldn’t warm up the lower layers.

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2 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ICON shows a plausible scenario with low just falling apart as it moves inland... this appears to happen because the 500mb trough doesn't dig as much as previous runs.  

icon-all-nw-mslp-1705276800-1705435200-1705532400-10.gif

icon-all-nw-z500_anom-1705276800-1705428000-1705546800-10.gif

icon-all-nw-t925-1705276800-1705446000-1705532400-10.gif

icon-all-nw-total_snow_10to1-5536000.png

Gfs has been really weak with the low. Just fizzles out.

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1 minute ago, umadbro said:

That definitely wouldn’t warm up the lower layers.

Not down there.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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8 minutes ago, Olive1010 said:

Thanks for the help guys, what's the meter on the right?

If you're young and/or new here and trying to learn, you might get better responses just coming out and saying it. 

Most people here have a smart a** attitude that can only be earned by being consistently disappointed by PNW snow chance busts, but you seem like maybe you're young and trying to learn about this stuff. I keep thinking about my children or even myself if I had access to resources like this forum when I was a snow obsessed kid. Sorry if you feel like you're being brushed off. 

I hope this isn't my Nyberg moment.  

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33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Once we do scour out, it's a pretty ugly pattern. 

So far no sign of going into something really super warm though.  I think a royal torch is still possible, but maybe we can avoid it.  We still have the MJO 7 wildcard coming up late month too.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.2"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 41

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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