February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[iFred]

43 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

ECMWF was a little colder with a little more snow on Wednesday night and then quite a bit warmer with temps getting close to 60 from Friday - Sunday.    Interesting week.    No idea if it will be warmer or colder than normal overall and no idea how much snow will fall.    Could be a warmer than normal week with lowland snow in western WA.  

Don’t know why everyone is so worked up over some cold rain but ignoring the 60s and 70s showing up later in the run. The later looks good for some southerly flow by end of month too.

I’m thinking I can get sunflowers started in a couple weeks and get the lime tree outside too. Going to try some avocado and figs this year too, so I need , no, we need this cold to end soon.

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Don’t know why everyone is so worked up over some cold rain but ignoring the 60s and 70s showing up later in the run. The later looks good for some southerly flow by end of month too.

I’m thinking I can get sunflowers started in a couple weeks and get the lime tree outside too. Going to try some avocado and figs this year too, so I need , no, we need this cold to end soon.

I am not telling anyone not to be excited for snow this week.   I think there is a pretty good chance it happens.    The swings on the ECMWF this week are also pretty interesting to me.    I like tracking weather regardless of my own springtime wanderlust.  

[Slushy Inch]

9 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

How is a meteogram different from other models? 

Visually 

[Cascadia_Wx]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Don’t know why everyone is so worked up over some cold rain but ignoring the 60s and 70s showing up later in the run. The later looks good for some southerly flow by end of month too.

I’m thinking I can get sunflowers started in a couple weeks and get the lime tree outside too. Going to try some avocado and figs this year too, so I need , no, we need this cold to end soon.

And the uncanny valley that is Fred’s persona here only widens…

[Cascadia_Wx]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Visually 

It’s a numerical chart as opposed to a map @LowerGarfield

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

And the uncanny valley that is Fred’s persona here only widens…

Its all of the above.   Don't take it personally!   

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

Hard not to like where the GFS goes toward the end. Seems to be decent ensemble support too.

[Cascadia_Wx]

Ended up with a 56/39 day here. Chilly with drizzle through about noon or so then the southerlies busted in and it was partly to mostly cloudy and milder.

Mostly cloudy and 46 currently. Hoping for cooler conditions in the coming days.

[snow_wizard]

I'm already getting a bit intrigued by this.

[bainbridgekid]

Low temps Wednesday night from the stupidly snowy GFS and much less snowy Euro. Hard to imagine a more tenuous setup temperature wise. Be interesting to track tomorrow to see if the chance of snow below 1,000 feet holds.

[TT-SEA]

Just now, bainbridgekid said:

Low temps Wednesday night from the stupidly GFS and much less snowy Euro. Hard to imagine a more tenuous setup temperature wise. Be interesting to track tomorrow to see if the chance of snow below 1,000 feet holds.

Here is the same from the control run which shows more snow than the ECMWF.

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF finally splits the PV on this run.  Might add to the potential late month.

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

Low temps Wednesday night from the stupidly snowy GFS and much less snowy Euro. Hard to imagine a more tenuous setup temperature wise. Be interesting to track tomorrow to see if the chance of snow below 1,000 feet holds.

All we need is about 1C of cooling from what is shown tonight at all levels to pull it off.  Very doable.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF finally splits the PV on this run.  Might add to the potential late month.

I was just checking on that... don't know for sure but I think Phil would say the ECMWF does not show a PV split.   But it looks like the GFS obliterates it by 384 hours.

[Meatyorologist]

From my dubiously-trained eye what we have coming this week is a classic baroclinic setup with marginally cold air to the north and an abundant supply of subtropical moisture to the south, causing a stalling low to blow up along the boundary and act as the core lifting mechanism. The large scale fundamentals are basically locked in, and the storm system is now an inevitable emergent property... Some lowland snow is basically guaranteed for someone Medford northward. Quite honestly this looks like a very, very similar setup over the PNW compared to January, though with more vorticity to grab onto and far, far warmer air.

As is always the case with these marginal setups, it's all going to come down to low placement, precipitation intensity, and time of day. With how long the boundary looks to stall, the high end potential with this event is enormous. Like, February 1916 enormous. Tiger can tell you exactly what 24 hours of intense marginal precipitation can do, he even has a forum classic of a picture from that event y'all have probably seen before!

My guess is that the main action will probably end up in Washington, and it'll be very elevation dependent. Unless we get a GFS-like dream scenario with a stalling low and very heavy precipitation beginning at night, the prospects for my own location are admittedly dim.

[Meatyorologist]

I just realized I missed my five year forum anniversary on 1/31! I joined on behalf of @iFred's Twitter invitation to relish in the Feb 2019 hype on a platform which matched my unhinged nerdiness a bit better.

More than fifty inches of snow later (ghad fuggin damn!!!) and it feels like much longer than just five years have passed, which is quite funny considering everyone always told me as a kid these years would fly by. If anything, high school came and went like a picture book. My life has been absolutely crazy since I joined. By no coincidence I feel like a much different person today compared to the individual who created this account. I'm just starting to figure my shitt out now and my hope is to be well on my way to an Atmos Sci degree come my tenth. Thanks to Fred for gifting me a space with open arms and thanks to all you for listening to my neurodivergent spieling.

Also!!!!! Can we give it up for a 10"+ seasonal average since joining!? I just figured that fact out while writing this. My sad ass post 2012-19 stretch self would have NEVER guessed!

[Meatyorologist]

BTW I still remember all the compliments like ten of you spontaneously gave me on a random day in April 2022. Completely unprompted and so sweet. Y'all probably don't remember but I'll never forget

[snow_wizard]

Oh boy!

[snow_wizard]

The 6z ICON is a tad colder also.  This thing has a shot.

[The Winter Warlock]

Can someone post the low placement ensemble?

Looks like we are model riding this week, folks.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Seems like every GFS run has had some goodies at the end. 

[TacomaWx]

Not sold on snow in Tacoma just yet but up here at work in snoqualmie? I think there’s a pretty good chance at 900’ for some snow. 

[TacomaWx]

5 hours ago, bainbridgekid said:

Low temps Wednesday night from the stupidly snowy GFS and much less snowy Euro. Hard to imagine a more tenuous setup temperature wise. Be interesting to track tomorrow to see if the chance of snow below 1,000 feet holds.

That’s about as close as it can be. Seems like could be a situation that could catch off guard if it ends up 1-2 degrees cooler than expected…but for now I’m just expecting cold rain atleast at 300’ near the Puget sound. 

[TacomaWx]

Not much mention from the NWS AFD. Just a chance of rain/snow mix south of Puget sound for now. Can’t really blame them for not going out on a limb on this one yet lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended up with 0.25" of rain yesterday. 1.66" on the month. 29 years ago today the Willamette Valley had a pretty legitimate snow event. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

November-January ONI hit 2.0. Pretty impressive. 

Nearly an 80% chance we are in Nina territory by fall. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Today's almanac for Silver Falls. 

Climo: 45/33

Record High: 63 (1971)

Record Low: 15 (1949)

Rainfall: 1.57" (1984)

Snow: 4.0" (1990)

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sold on snow in Tacoma just yet but up here at work in snoqualmie? I think there’s a pretty good chance at 900’ for some snow. 

Sounds pretty marginal and Tacoma doesn’t typically do well in marginal situations. So I’m expecting nothing and am willing to be pleasantly surprised. 

[ShawniganLake]

We’re within NAM range

 

[MossMan]

35 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

We’re within NAM range

 

North…C’MON!!! 
 

And The Fuzz…

[Cascadia_Wx]

Mostly cloud and mild with a low of 44 so far this morning. At least it looks like we’ll clear out this evening and possibly be looking at some frost tomorrow morning.

Most guidance has highs around 50 for today, but with the mild start and sunbreaks likely later, I think most spots in the Portland metro will make a solid run at 55.

[RaleighHillsRunner]

4 hours ago, The Winter Warlock said:

Can someone post the low placement ensemble?

Looks like we are model riding this week, folks.

Are we really doing this? 

Man, I was just about ready to start planning outdoor Spring projects  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Mostly cloud and mild with a low of 44 so far this morning. At least it looks like we’ll clear out this evening and possibly be looking at some frost tomorrow morning.

Most guidance has highs around 50 for today, but with the mild start and sunbreaks likely later, I think most spots in the Portland metro will make a solid run at 55.

Noticed it was 47 on the car thermometer heading into Salem today. Exceptionally mild start. Mid-June type temperatures.

[iFred]

7 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

I just realized I missed my five year forum anniversary on 1/31! I joined on behalf of @iFred's Twitter invitation to relish in the Feb 2019 hype on a platform which matched my unhinged nerdiness a bit better.

More than fifty inches of snow later (ghad fuggin damn!!!) and it feels like much longer than just five years have passed, which is quite funny considering everyone always told me as a kid these years would fly by. If anything, high school came and went like a picture book. My life has been absolutely crazy since I joined. By no coincidence I feel like a much different person today compared to the individual who created this account. I'm just starting to figure my shitt out now and my hope is to be well on my way to an Atmos Sci degree come my tenth. Thanks to Fred for gifting me a space with open arms and thanks to all you for listening to my neurodivergent spieling.

Also!!!!! Can we give it up for a 10"+ seasonal average since joining!? I just figured that fact out while writing this. My sad ass post 2012-19 stretch self would have NEVER guessed!

You were the forum's 5th anniversary gift. Now you need to rope someone in to continue the tradition of quality posters.

[TT-SEA]

18 minutes ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Are we really doing this? 

Man, I was just about ready to start planning outdoor Spring projects  

It is possible to plan spring projects and track snow chances at the same time.  

[RaleighHillsRunner]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

It is possible to plan spring projects and track snow chances at the same time.  

Fair point. I’ll put a hold on the mulch for a bit longer

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, RaleighHillsRunner said:

Fair point. I’ll put a hold on the mulch for a bit longer

Maybe there’s something I’m not understanding. What would stop you from going outside today? It’s overcast but temps aren’t overly cold.

[Randyc321]

2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

We’re within NAM range

 

I like magenta!

[ShawniganLake]

Wow. Brutal gfs run. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

This is what it looked like 3 years ago today when I still lived in Wood Village 🌨