February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[GHweatherChris]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Radar looks great. If this continues wet bulbing will put us in business.

The low is getting its act together and showing hours of back fill moisture.....

[snow_wizard]

26 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

I wonder if @TT-SEA is seeing anything. Radar looks pretty decent over North Bend but it’s probably misleading.

Yeah.  the moisture is just getting eaten up.

[Jbolin]

There is a confirmed fatality on SR 18 just east of Issy/Hobart. Likely due to wind via radio traffic. Heavy snow being reported there.  

[Slushy Inch]

2 minutes ago, GHweatherChris said:

The low is getting its act together and showing hours of back fill moisture.....

Looks like more moist solution is verifying 

[Snowlova]

Snow starting on somerset hill in Bellevue just east of Mercer Island.

I like to use this resource for high res cameras around Bellevue https://trafficmap.bellevuewa.gov/

[Weiner Warrior]

Snow in Eastgate area of Bellevue. Lot's of wind. Waiting for NWS blizzard warning.

[Snowlova]

I am getting SO little sleep tonight haha

[GHweatherChris]

When DP's start dropping at KHQM this way, you know the chance is real...

[Jbolin]

Hmmm? 

[ShawniganLake]

13 minutes ago, VancouverIslandSouth said:

We need more northerly momentum or a faster rotation. It could happen with a well-placed deformation zone. The dynamics are favorable with a slight nudge to the north.

Could happen if the deformation bumped much further north than modeled. Seems pretty unlikely right now. 

[Tanis Leach]

This is what Mark Nelsen posted in PDX Weather analysis just now. 

 

8pm "Crappy GFS" update:  Now we know and can confirm that it still sucks and was a real outlier this time. Temps running 4-5 degrees warmer than it had been showing for this hour. And the 2-3" snow hasn't shown up yet...probably not in next 1.5 hours either. All other models did far better predicting no evening snow in lowlands. GRAF for next two days shows similar setup, but warmer overhead of course makes it harder to snow. I really think in the close-in time period (1 day out) it's safer to stick with the high-res models (WRF-GFS, GRAF, 3KM NAM, HRRR, etc...)

[Tanis Leach]

Also, I know I haven't posted in a while. I was in team no snow camp for this for PDX (see my YT channel as I posted something in the community tab). 

 

I never understood the over-reliance on GFS or the 2017 comparison. 

[Slushy Inch]

6 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

This is what Mark Nelsen posted in PDX Weather analysis just now. 

 

8pm "Crappy GFS" update:  Now we know and can confirm that it still sucks and was a real outlier this time. Temps running 4-5 degrees warmer than it had been showing for this hour. And the 2-3" snow hasn't shown up yet...probably not in next 1.5 hours either. All other models did far better predicting no evening snow in lowlands. GRAF for next two days shows similar setup, but warmer overhead of course makes it harder to snow. I really think in the close-in time period (1 day out) it's safer to stick with the high-res models (WRF-GFS, GRAF, 3KM NAM, HRRR, etc...)

Gfs not doing too bad up here. 

[RaleighHillsRunner]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Gfs not doing too bad up hear.

If I were a betting man tho…

[Blizzard777]

15 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

There is a confirmed fatality on SR 18 just east of Issy/Hobart. Likely due to wind via radio traffic. Heavy snow being reported there.  

I was out hiking Poo Poo Point trail earlier in that area.  Winds were blowing up on top! Sad news though  

[SnowySeeker50]

Back up to 40f, dp down to 24. Moisture is just getting eaten up.

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Also, I know I haven't posted in a while. I was in team no snow camp for this for PDX (see my YT channel as I posted something in the community tab). 

 

I never understood the over-reliance on GFS or the 2017 comparison. 

GFS is trash, people around here hang on it like its the gospel  

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

25 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

You sure your station doesn't have warm bias? Sometimes they get out of whack and show temps sometimes a couple degrees too warm or cold. 

I have 3 lol

[GHweatherChris]

Slushy accumulation starting now right on cue.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Could happen if the deformation bumped much further north than modeled. Seems pretty unlikely right now. 

The angular momentum is the thing to watch for. It seems like this thing is set to get squashed through the Puget Sound. If the rotating band can't move further east it will get squeezed to the north while the low collapses into it. I think that's what some of the mesoscale models have been catching.

[Jbolin]

Pic from the scene of the fatality on SR 18. Radio traffic indicates a lot of fallen trees in that area. 

[Christensen87]

Friends in Olympia say it is dumping. It’s starting! 

[Doinko]

Up to 40 from 38 earlier. Very windy and rainy though

[MossMan]

Down to 40.9! 

[the_convergence_zone]

37.8 and rain here. The east wind is really cranking, this would have been epic if there was any cold air at all to work with. 

[Jbolin]

1 minute ago, Christensen87 said:

Friends in Olympia say it is dumping. It’s starting! 

 

[GHweatherChris]

100% snow now, right on schedule!  Time to get just a tad colder and make tomorrows commute difficult!!

[VancouverIslandSouth]

The low is looking surprisingly well defined:

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

Moderate sticking snow and 34 degrees

 Very windy as well. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

7 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

Pic from the scene of the fatality on SR 18. Radio traffic indicates a lot of fallen trees in that area. 

*** that sux

 Driving down the road and.boom you are dead just like that. I've driven that road 500 times. I wish they would close it and fix it.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

And with snow in the air (at least) today, we have officially at least had flakes within 7 days of my birthday. We almost didn't make it, but it happened in the nick of time!

[Jbolin]

9 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

*** that sux

 Driving down the road and.boom you are dead just like that. I've driven that road 500 times. I wish they would close it and fix it.

They "did", it used to be a narrow two lane death trap that averaged two or more fatal accidents every month between 1992 and 1998. They added two additional lanes with a huge median separation. That project took years to complete. (New funding) has been secured to add lanes and improvements from Issaquah/Hobart east to Tiger summit beginning in 2025.

It's actually much safer now than it was 25 years ago. But I do agree w/you (to an extent).

[Slushy Inch]

And euro goes towards faster precip rates on this run.

[CliffMassYelledAtMe]

6 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

*** that sux

 Driving down the road and.boom you are dead just like that. I've driven that road 500 times. I wish they would close it and fix it.

There are a lot of things wrong with that section of road, but the trees are something that's a risk on so many roads around here.  Could happen out in 410 between Enumclaw and Crystal or on Hwy 2 or on 101. It's a busy road so chances are just increased. Sending thoughts for peace for the family.

[RayRay]

Where is all the snow reports?

[Front Ranger]

10 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

*** that sux

 Driving down the road and.boom you are dead just like that. I've driven that road 500 times. I wish they would close it and fix it.

How do you fix a tree falling on someone?

[Slushy Inch]

Even kuchera has me getting over an inch now.

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

How do you fix a tree falling on someone?

It just reminds me of how dangerous the road is in general.  Worse section of road in the state imo.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, RayRay said:

Where is all the snow reports?

Most of what you're seeing on radar east of the Puget Sound is evaporating before it reaches the ground.

[GHweatherChris]

2 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

How do you fix a tree falling on someone?

 

Edited February 15 by GHweatherChris