February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Just tell us what you think it might show, Andrew. You don’t have to look at it  

Disappointment 

[Cascadia_Wx]

9 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

Hey it’s ok, towns burn, it’s happens. It’s what nature does. God forbid there’s a cloudy Saturday in July though. 

I will never get over how ridiculous double standard is

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, FroYoBro said:

So you would rather forecasters be more snow friendly than correct? 

I think a better attitude (wish casting) would make it snow more around here. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

I will never get over how ridiculous double standard is

I think part of it is generational. Also it's just getting into your mid-50s or so and realizing you only have a good 20-30 years left at best so a bit of a IDGAF about anything other than ones own needs/wants/desires starts to develop.

[ShawniganLake]

30 minutes ago, MR.SNOWMIZER said:

This small area around the canal has one of the most amazing micro climates in the state. Also amazing how Sheltered I am from the warming sw winds. Bremerton airport can be gusting 30mph from the sw and just 6 miles east it can be dead calm here. 

It’s kind of similar here. Shawnigan lake is blocked from SE winds.  I’ve seen areas just 4-5 miles away gusting over 60mph while Shawnigan Lake is dead calm.  It’s why we can be getting snow while Victoria YYJ is in the 40s just about 10 miles away. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

I will clarify. I don't truly wish for the snowpack in the regions up north to melt early, just sometimes you wish it did because summer hiking is amazing and it feels like that season just isn't long enough. I understand the negative effects so I do not truly wish for it.

 

That's part of the reason I live down in oregon, earlier meltoff. BC can keep their snow till August and it doesn't really affect me.

 

[SnarkyGoblin]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

And of course it’s a totally different ball game now with humanity and our incredibly complex civilization as a big part of the picture. And despite many people’s total lack of connection with this fact, we still depend on nature being healthy to function as a society. The rapid changes in climate in recent decades is not something our infrastructure is well equipped to handle. Especially talking about wildfire and water availability here. People thinking short term might celebrate longer mountain biking seasons and more tanning days, but at a certain point it will come to bite folks at even the most opulent of Snoqualmie chalets, if we continue on this trajectory.

I am certain nature and even humanity will carry on in the end. Life is very resilient. This planet has experienced six (maybe working on a seventh?) mass extinction events. But that doesn’t mean there won’t be a lot of suffering in the meantime. I don’t see the point of celebrating that, maybe I just need to work on blackening my soul a bit more.

Agree 100%. Although I don't think the current chalet owners will see the error in their ways before they die.  

Maybe their kids will, though, if one Washington winter the skiing just never happens.  Or maybe they'll just point out about some completely irrelevant 10,000 year old fact about glaciers, buy a seasons ticket pass to the higher elevation Crystal, and pass the buck to their kids.

Rinse and repeat until AZ has no water and half of Florida is under water.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

39 currently and already .25" of melted snow in the rain gauge, snow depth is 6" now, it peaked at 9.75 when I got up this morning. I guess I did end up scoring better than Bend/Redmond in this event, they were forecast to get more than me but that did not pan out.

 

ZR forecast was a bust, all of our precip fell as snow. 

 

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I think part of it is generational. Also it's just getting into your mid-50s or so and realizing you only have a good 20-30 years left at best so a bit of a IDGAF about anything other than ones own needs/wants/desires starts to develop.

It’s probably human nature to a degree but it’s a shift I hope to avoid. Some people have a lot of care for others to give well into old age. I always think of Jimmy Carter. Or my great Grandpa who is sort of a personal hero to me. He was kind, giving and unselfish until the very end. Almost made it to 100 but missed it by a year. WWII veteran but since he was 7th Day Adventist he did not bear arms. Was an ambulance driver France in the later stages of the war. I imagine he saw some crazy sh*t but he never really talked about it much.

Edited February 18 by Cascadia_Wx

[High Desert Mat?]

2 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

39 currently and already .25" of melted snow in the rain gauge, snow depth is 6" now, it peaked at 9.75 when I got up this morning. I guess I did end up scoring better than Bend/Redmond in this event, they were forecast to get more than me but that did not pan out.

 

ZR forecast busted, all of our precip fell as snow. 

 

Ya the zr never materialized, it stayed snow until about 10 last night when the precip shut off. Got another 5” though. About 7” on the ground now imby so I’m not sure if you really had gotten more. Melting at a good clip now. Temp in low 40’s. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Some highlights from the CFS. 

 

[TT-SEA]

25 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I will never get over how ridiculous double standard is

There is no double standard.   We literally don't control any of it.   Heat... floods... blizzards... hurricanes... earthquakes... cloudy summer weekends... sunny summer weekends etc. etc. etc.   

And nature has no morality.    You are all about forced moral outrage.   You love to pointlessly create villains.  

[MossMan]

9 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Agree 100%. Although I don't think the current chalet owners will see the error in their ways before they die.  

Maybe their kids will, though, if one Washington winter the skiing just never happens.  Or maybe they'll just point out about some completely irrelevant 10,000 year old fact about glaciers, buy a seasons ticket pass to the higher elevation Crystal, and pass the buck to their kids.

Rinse and repeat until AZ has no water and half of Florida is under water.

It’s been snowing in AZ, and really is it a bad thing if Florida goes underwater??? Will it really be missed? 
 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

How do the 12z ecmwf ensembles look for salem in terms of snow?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

There is no double standard.   We literally don't control any of it.   Heat... floods... blizzards... hurricanes... earthquakes... cloudy summer weekends... sunny summer weekends etc. etc. etc.   

And nature has no morality.    You are all about forced moral outrage.   You love to pointlessly create villains.  

But there is a moral framework for looking at our relationship with nature. 

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Some highlights from the CFS. 

 

OMG 

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

Agree 100%. Although I don't think the current chalet owners will see the error in their ways before they die.  

Maybe their kids will, though, if one Washington winter the skiing just never happens.  Or maybe they'll just point out about some completely irrelevant 10,000 year old fact about glaciers, buy a seasons ticket pass to the higher elevation Crystal, and pass the buck to their kids.

Rinse and repeat until AZ has no water and half of Florida is under water.

This is hilarious.    Could not have made more of a screaming Karen post if you tried.   So I am polluting the world with my eco hybrid cars and my natural gas inserts and recycling?    What exactly am I doing and how is it different than what you do?   I live in one of the most progressive states and we have clean water and air.   I don't control Asia or the rest of the world.  Nor do you.  Should I hysterically mock everyone who is not Greta on steroids?   Would that solve the world's problems?  

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

But there is a moral framework for looking at our relationship with nature. 

Yeah I mean we’re getting into some pretty wonky philosophical territory here if we’re talking about throwing any sense of human morality out the window just because the universe as a whole appears to be an unbiased entity. Could get way out in the weeds with the implications of that line of reasoning…

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

There is no double standard.   We literally don't control any of it.   Heat... floods... blizzards... hurricanes... earthquakes... cloudy summer weekends... sunny summer weekends etc. etc.  etc.   

And nature has no morality.    You are all about forced moral outrage.   

When Mark was wishing for some snow-free hiking, I doubt he was rubbing his palms together daydreaming about sawing down half the Santiam old growth. Nor was he thinking about all the ways in which a well timed heatwave during his summer vacation would melt away the remnants of the White River Glacier.

[Chewbacca Defense]

4 hours ago, MossMan said:

Is that the town where Phil invented math? 

A little tidbit....as most of folks on this page know, Philomath Oregon is pronounced  fah-loh-muth (something to that effect.)

There is also a Philomath in Georgia, a little bit south of Athens, and it is actually pronounced fi-low-math.    It's actually referenced in the first and 3rd verse of the REM song "Can’t Get There from Here" 

When we moved out here, we landed in Albany, but spent most of our time in Corvallis since our goal was to go to OSU.  It took us a little while to connect that fah-loh-muth = fi-low-math. 

 

There's your useless fact for the day.  Carry on.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah I mean we’re getting into some pretty wonky philosophical territory here if we’re talking about throwing any sense of human morality out the window just because the universe as a whole appears to be an unbiased entity. Could get way out in the weeds with the implications of that line of reasoning…

Not throwing human morality out the window.  That is very important.  I am saying nature has no morality.   Literally none.    

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah I mean we’re getting into some pretty wonky philosophical territory here if we’re talking about throwing any sense of human morality out the window just because the universe as a whole appears to be an unbiased entity. Could get way out in the weeds with the implications of that line of reasoning…

True. But I've always viewed him as essentially amoral. Right and wrong based on a personal cost/benefits analysis. Pretty typical way to look at things for many Americans. 90% of the environmentalism we see today is fake anyways. When you see all these corporations jumping on the climate bandwagon, you know a bait and switch is underway. "Come on, we have to mine lithium on an indigenous heritage site so we can save the PLANET!"

[Deweydog]

This is going nowhere FAST!

Just like our winter! Lolz!!!!

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

This is going nowhere FAST!

Just like our winter! Lolz!!!!

Winter of 91/92 would have brutal on the forum!! 

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

Yeah I mean we’re getting into some pretty wonky philosophical territory here if we’re talking about throwing any sense of human morality out the window just because the universe as a whole appears to be an unbiased entity. Could get way out in the weeds with the implications of that line of reasoning…

So we have to get into philosophy because Mark wants to go on some ignorant hiking or whatever? His comment was in bad taste, at the very worst.

Just a moment ago you yourself were rattling on about how the rich are forwarding their responsibility for global warming onto the common man in the form of things like recycling shaming and carbon footprints (hard agree btw.) You can not deflect responsibility for global warming while simultaneously holding Mark accountable for his warm weather preferences. He can not lack culpability and be blamed at the same time.

Unless Mark is part of...THE ELITE..... 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

True. But I've always viewed him as essentially amoral. Right and wrong based on a personal cost/benefits analysis. Pretty typical way to look at things for many Americans. 90% of the environmentalism we see today is fake anyways. When you see all these corporations jumping on the climate bandwagon, you know a bait and switch is underway. "Come on, we have to mine lithium on an indigenous heritage site so we can save the PLANET!"

Me?   There are many things that are immoral. Morality is what separates us from animals.  Corporations destroying the environment for profit is highly immoral.  Stealing from people or intentionally hurting people is immoral.   I care about our community and our society.    We have volunteered for community projects and events here since my kids were toddlers.   We can make a difference in our local community and make it better for everyone.   But I can't control the entire world.   

[ShawniganLake]

Massive 18Z GFS is running and will be getting to the good stuff soon.  You can cut the tension with a knife. 

[SnarkyGoblin]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This is hilarious.    Could not have made more of a screaming Karen post if you tried.   So I am polluting the world with my eco hybrid cars and my natural gas inserts and recycling?    What exactly am I doing and how is it different than what you do?   I live in one of the most progressive states and we have clean water and air.   I don't control Asia or the rest of the world.  Nor do you.  Should I hysterically mock everyone who is not Greta on steroids?   Would that solve the world's problems?  

No individual controls the climate, obviously.   Humanity does though, through agw emissions.  And you are misunderstanding my critique.  

Correct me if I'm wrong but are you not (and have you regularly said) that because we have no control over the climate, it doesn't matter what we do or who we elect or what we demand from other countries who are also contributing to the problem?

Thats the issue I have.  I wouldn't expect/demand anyone to go to great lengths to (relatively) reduce their own emissions. Power to them, but this is a much bigger problem than any individual or any single govt can solve.

You seemingly don't think there's a problem to solve.  Maybe I've misunderstood your several posts on this subject.

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

1 hour ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

The loss of glaciers in the Cascades and Olympics has accelerated rapidly since the 1970s. There is literally no debate there. Recent hot summers have played a huge role. It’s not like they’ve just been steadily declining at a linear rate the last 300 years. There was a period in the 30 years before the 70s when many Cascade glaciers actually advanced. There was also a period in the late 1800s through the 1920s where they advanced some, followed by one of the first modern periods of retreat in the 1920s-40s.

Don’t bother, they can’t be helped. My sympathetic conclusion is they reason this way to avoid dealing with the depressing reality of what’s actually happening to our local ecosystems.

Though I will say, I refuse to take the doomer route and throw my hands up and give up. There are regulations we can support, and actions we can support by non profits and government.  Best way I deal with it is helping locally best I can. I’m buying the “extractigator ( https://extractigator.com ) to work on the holly invasion around our little lake. 

There will always be suffering (and always has been) but that doesn’t mean it’s not worth it to reduce it the best we can.  

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

No individual controls the climate, obviously.   Humanity does though, through agw emissions.  And you are misunderstanding my critique.  

Correct me if I'm wrong but are you not (and have you regularly said) that because we have no control over the climate, it doesn't matter what we do or who we elect or what we demand from other countries who are also contributing to the problem?

Thats the issue I have.  I wouldn't expect/demand anyone to go to great lengths to (relatively) reduce their own emissions. Power to them, but this is a much bigger problem than any individual or any single govt can solve.

You seemingly don't think there's a problem to solve.  Maybe I've misunderstood your several posts on this subject.

There most certainly is a big climate problem to solve.   But politics in the country is a complete disaster so that feels hopeless.    And so does trying to control the rest of the world.  

[Cascadia_Wx]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

When Mark was wishing for some snow-free hiking, I doubt he was rubbing his palms together daydreaming about sawing down half the Santiam old growth. Nor was he thinking about all the ways in which a well timed heatwave during his summer vacation would melt away the remnants of the White River Glacier.

I mean I get it. When life gives you lemons make lemonade. There’s not a lot that many of us as individuals can do about a warming regional climate, so might as well reap what benefits we can from it. I myself have been guilty of taking advantage of low snow conditions to access favorite hiking spots out of season. Believe it or not I also understand why people would get into gardening as another way to embrace the possible benefits of local warming.

Maybe this is my downfall, but for me it comes down to attitude. It’s like there are some folks who get a sort of sadistic joy from fully embracing/celebrating the rapid warming of our climate just because it upsets those who’s different opinions they view as silly or trivial. Their sadness of losing favorite spots to fire or drought is worthy of mockery, because nature is always changing. As if no one is aware of this fact. But then these same folks turn around and scream for opinion immunity when their own silly and trivial, and arguably much smaller and more selfish concerns, like a rained out summer weekend, come into play. I can’t see how that isn’t a double standard.

[Cascadia_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

So we have to get into philosophy because Mark wants to go on some ignorant hiking or whatever? His comment was in bad taste, at the very worst.

Just a moment ago you yourself were rattling on about how the rich are forwarding their responsibility for global warming onto the common man in the form of things like recycling shaming and carbon footprints (hard agree btw.) You can not deflect responsibility for global warming while simultaneously holding Mark accountable for his warm weather preferences. He can not lack culpability and be blamed at the same time.

Unless Mark is part of...THE ELITE..... 

Yeah definitely. His comment was in bad taste. That was really my only point.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

18 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

A little tidbit....as most of folks on this page know, Philomath Oregon is pronounced  fah-loh-muth (something to that effect.)

There is also a Philomath in Georgia, a little bit south of Athens, and it is actually pronounced fi-low-math.    It's actually referenced in the first and 3rd verse of the REM song "Can’t Get There from Here" 

When we moved out here, we landed in Albany, but spent most of our time in Corvallis since our goal was to go to OSU.  It took us a little while to connect that fah-loh-muth = fi-low-math. 

 

There's your useless fact for the day.  Carry on.

The lumber mill in Philomath closed this week. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

Don’t bother, they can’t be helped. My sympathetic conclusion is they reason this way to avoid dealing with the depressing reality of what’s actually happening to our local ecosystems.

Though I will say, I refuse to take the doomer route and throw my hands up and give up. There are regulations we can support, and actions we can support by non profits and government.  Best way I deal with it is helping locally best I can. I’m buying the “extractigator ( https://extractigator.com ) to work on the holly invasion around our little lake. 

There will always be suffering (and always has been) but that doesn’t mean it’s not worth it to reduce it. 

Yep... make a difference locally.    That is all any of us can really do.   

[Timmy]

Nice day out 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

3 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I mean I get it. When life gives you lemons make lemonade. There’s not a lot that many of us as individuals can do about a warming regional climate, so might as well reap what benefits we can from it. I myself have been guilty of taking advantage of low snow conditions to access favorite hiking spots out of season. Believe it or not I also understand why people would get into gardening as another way to embrace the possible benefits of local warming.

Maybe this is my downfall, but for me it comes down to attitude. It’s like there are some folks who get a sort of sadistic joy from fully embracing/celebrating the rapid warming of our climate just because it upsets those who’s different opinions they view as silly or trivial. Their sadness of losing favorite spots to fire or drought is worthy of mockery, because nature is always changing. As if no one is aware of this fact. But then these same folks turn around and scream for opinion immunity when their own silly and trivial, and arguably much smaller and more selfish concerns, like a rained out summer weekend, come into play. I can’t see how that isn’t a double standard.

Someday I hope to live a life so isolated and detached from reality that I am not even aware of anyone else’s opinion. 

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Someday I hope to live a life so isolated and detached from reality that I am not even aware of anyone else’s opinion. 

Get a gate in front of your neighborhood. Good first step.

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Someday I hope to live a life so isolated and detached from reality that I am not even aware of anyone else’s opinion. 

Off the grid living in the woods... not trying to solve the world's problems?   

[Meatyorologist]

5 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I mean I get it. When life gives you lemons make lemonade. There’s not a lot that many of us as individuals can do about a warming regional climate, so might as well reap what benefits we can from it. I myself have been guilty of taking advantage of low snow conditions to access favorite hiking spots out of season. Believe it or not I also understand why people would get into gardening as another way to embrace the possible benefits of local warming.

Maybe this is my downfall, but for me it comes down to attitude. It’s like there are some folks who get a sort of sadistic joy from fully embracing/celebrating the rapid warming of our climate just because it upsets those who’s different opinions they view as silly or trivial. Their sadness of losing favorite spots to fire or drought is worthy of mockery, because nature is always changing. As if no one is aware of this fact. But then these same folks turn around and scream for opinion immunity when their own silly and trivial, and arguably much smaller and more selfish concerns, like a rained out summer weekend, come into play. I can’t see how that isn’t a double standard.

I've never interpreted anything Tim does as mockery. Maybe those warm EPS maps he posts when he's excited for the first heatwave of Spring lack some necessary room reading, but I doubt he's attaching much emotional baggage or putting any ill intention into what he says.

[TT-SEA]

15 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I mean I get it. When life gives you lemons make lemonade. There’s not a lot that many of us as individuals can do about a warming regional climate, so might as well reap what benefits we can from it. I myself have been guilty of taking advantage of low snow conditions to access favorite hiking spots out of season. Believe it or not I also understand why people would get into gardening as another way to embrace the possible benefits of local warming.

Maybe this is my downfall, but for me it comes down to attitude. It’s like there are some folks who get a sort of sadistic joy from fully embracing/celebrating the rapid warming of our climate just because it upsets those who’s different opinions they view as silly or trivial. Their sadness of losing favorite spots to fire or drought is worthy of mockery, because nature is always changing. As if no one is aware of this fact. But then these same folks turn around and scream for opinion immunity when their own silly and trivial, and arguably much smaller and more selfish concerns, like a rained out summer weekend, come into play. I can’t see how that isn’t a double standard.

No one ever mocked you for losing a hiking spot.   You have to realize you are an unbelievably sensitive person right?   You have to at least acknowledge that.  

The reality is that without 100 years of intense fire suppression we might not be in the spot we are today with a massive fire deficit to pay... which is being accelerated by climate warming.    That is just the reality.   If that is mocking to you then that is on you.