February 2024 Weather in the PNW

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Gooooddddd I love big niche cats. Norwegian Forest Cats are another I'd love to own. Do you have any pictures of her?

I'll have to see if I can get one rounded up.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Really cool how it’s perfectly shaped like a 7. Almost looks like a glitch on the satellite.

Never seen that before.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Yep.  Followed by the worst fire season in modern history...coincidentally...maybe.

Worse than 2020?  That would really be saying something.

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Really cool how it’s perfectly shaped like a 7. Almost looks like a glitch on the satellite.

7 is a lucky number IMO.  Definitely gonna snow now. 

[Slushy Inch]

Lightning potential for sure.

[Timmy Supercell]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Worse than 2020?  That would really be saying something.

Maybe he meant in overall area coverage, I'd have to look back at each year. 

2020 was definitely bigger in Oregon. 

[Tyler Mode]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Worse than 2020?  That would really be saying something.

I know Canada had their worst season in 2023 for sure.

[SnowWillarrive]

25 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Really cool how it’s perfectly shaped like a 7. Almost looks like a glitch on the satellite.

It’s the matrix glitching. 
 

 

[MossMan]

39 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Really cool how it’s perfectly shaped like a 7. Almost looks like a glitch on the satellite.

Must mean 7” is coming our way! 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

21 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

It’s the matrix glitching. 
 

 

Not a doubt in my mind that's the world we live in.

[Meatyorologist]

37 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Lake City isn't as bad as some places in Seattle.  It can get C-Zone action.  I used to live on Finn Hill which is actually a bit south of there and we sometimes got C-Zone snow.  That was at 400 feet though.

As an aside the winter of 1988-89 had a C-zone that brought several inches of snow in January beside all of the other stuff that came after.  Overall a great winter where I was living.  I think that C-Zone was very elevation dependent for snow though.

We have our moments for sure, January 2012 brought us great PSCZ luck. Nov 2010 nailed us unexpectedly and we got core'd on both deformation bands between 2/3 and 2/9 2019.

[Cascadia_Wx]

37 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Maybe he meant in overall area coverage, I'd have to look back at each year. 

2020 was definitely bigger in Oregon. 

I think 2015 was the worst to date, before even nicer years came along.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Yeah....not much happening here yet.

I have seen crocuses blooming (they typically do at the end of Feb) and daffodils starting to lift their heads up around town. Seems to be the earliest we’ve been this far along phenology wise since 2016. It was kind of due. 

[MR.SNOWMIZER]

No blooming here, but I don't look for every little hint of spring like a Fred meyer store hanging up seeds for sale Jan 2nd.

[Tyler Mode]

8 minutes ago, Cascadia_Wx said:

I have seen crocuses blooming (they typically do at the end of Feb) and daffodils starting to lift their heads up around town. Seems to be the earliest we’ve been this far along phenology wise since 2016. It was kind of due. 

I bet my daffodils will open tomorrow...at least once batch.

[westcoastexpat]

Nearing 70 in Iowa next week! Oof that gradient.

[SnowHawks]

CZ's can be quite dynamic in terms of snowfall. I was living in Seattle in 1996 on Capitol Hill and the forecast called rain snow mix possibly.  Well a CZ developed and it appeared to be a King/Snohomish County line special. As the CZ began to slide south, it strengthened and stalled over Seattle. We had a howling northerly wind and ended up with over 10 inches of snow!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Yeah the 2020 fire season was pretty tame until Labor Day.

[Cold Snap]

8 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

CZ's can be quite dynamic in terms of snowfall. I was living in Seattle in 1996 on Capitol Hill and the forecast called rain snow mix possibly.  Well a CZ developed and it appeared to be a King/Snohomish County line special. As the CZ began to slide south, it strengthened and stalled over Seattle. We had a howling northerly wind and ended up with over 10 inches of snow!

Definitely. The one in Jan 2020 dropped 8” of snow IMBY in 3 hours. Absolutely insane snowfall rates with that one.

[Snowlova]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Really cool how it’s perfectly shaped like a 7. Almost looks like a glitch on the satellite.

I’m taking this as a sign that something good will happen IMBY after over two years of getting skunked so many times

[MWG]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah the 2020 fire season was pretty tame until Labor Day.

I will never forget the Alameda Fire here on 9/8/2020 

[snow_wizard]

The ICON is just laughable with snow.  It barely shows any in the Olympics on Sunday and Monday.

[Cascadia_Wx]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

I'm trying to practice Matt's signature stoic equanimity but watching snowmap after snowmap roll out hole'ing me to death with an Olympic mountain range-sized club is starting to get to me... The best lift will be to my immediate north and south, and best thermals 500' up. It's been no coincidence that nearly every scenario has resulted in paltry totals for this little corner of Pseattle.

Not that Lake City needs an Achilles Heel, but NW onshore flow is a pretty damning 'snowfall setup' here, if you can call it that. It takes advantage of every wonderful weakness this neighborhood has to offer; Olympic shadowing, low elevation, unfavorable PSCZ placement. Unless we get lucky and luck out on the latter of the three, there's not a whole lot to look forward to until the backend of the trough when overrunning takes over.

Honestly I’ve never really understood the implied pressure to be that way here. This is a hobby a lot of us are clearly very passionate about. If we were all totally cold and detached about specific outcomes (as long as it doesn’t drizzle too much out of season ) this place would lose its heart and soul.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Lightning potential for sure.

Thundersnow!  Being convective would make frozen precip a lot easier to achieve.

[Blizzard777]

1 hour ago, Cold Snap said:

Really cool how it’s perfectly shaped like a 7. Almost looks like a glitch on the satellite.

Also and arrow pointing right at the straits !!!!  
lol

[snow_wizard]

26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Yeah the 2020 fire season was pretty tame until Labor Day.

But then all hell broke loose.

[snow_wizard]

34 minutes ago, SnowHawks said:

CZ's can be quite dynamic in terms of snowfall. I was living in Seattle in 1996 on Capitol Hill and the forecast called rain snow mix possibly.  Well a CZ developed and it appeared to be a King/Snohomish County line special. As the CZ began to slide south, it strengthened and stalled over Seattle. We had a howling northerly wind and ended up with over 10 inches of snow!

That must have been January 1996 before the Arctic air arrived.  That was a fun month!

[Ken in Wood Village]

I know everyone are focused on the possibility of snow but I do see something very interesting next week thanks to Michael Snyder. He has pointed out the possibility of a windstorm next week. I looked at both the GFS and the Euro model and they both show the same low pressure system. The 12Z Euro shows the system much further North but the 18Z shows it going North of Seattle. 

One thing Michael says is this storm is suppose to intensify when it comes towards the PNW which will create a strong pressure difference from South to North. I think we need to watch this system on the 29th. 

If someone has the 18Z Euro, maybe you could look and see if that low pressure is still there?

[ShawniganLake]

26 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I know everyone are focused on the possibility of snow but I do see something very interesting next week thanks to Michael Snyder. He has pointed out the possibility of a windstorm next week. I looked at both the GFS and the Euro model and they both show the same low pressure system. The 12Z Euro shows the system much further North but the 18Z shows it going North of Seattle. 

One thing Michael says is this storm is suppose to intensify when it comes towards the PNW which will create a strong pressure difference from South to North. I think we need to watch this system on the 29th. 

If someone has the 18Z Euro, maybe you could look and see if that low pressure is still there?

I have mentioned the wind possibility a couple times over the last day or so.  The pattern next week could be favourable for some cyclogenesis to occur relatively close to the coast.  

[Timmy]

Gfs is more progressive middle of next week. It’s a great mountain snow pattern.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Fantastic 00z runs!

[ShawniganLake]

3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Fantastic 00z runs!

Loved the Gem. Nice snowfall here Monday evening. 

[lowlandsnow]

For WA I don't see what was so great about the GFS and GEM less mountain snow and less lowland snow.

[Slushy Inch]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Thundersnow!  Being convective would make frozen precip a lot easier to achieve.

A near guarantee under a thunderstorm shower for this event!

[Cascadia_Wx]

13 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

For WA I don't see what was so great about the GFS and GEM less mountain snow and less lowland snow.

I see lowlandsnow right here.

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, lowlandsnow said:

For WA I don't see what was so great about the GFS and GEM less mountain snow and less lowland snow.

Yeah... not much lowland snow.   The GFS map translates to not much with its terrain bleed issues.

[TT-SEA]

But the ECMWF has been showing significantly more lowland snow and that carries more weight than all the other models.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pepto runs for foothills locales. 

[Snowlova]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

But the ECMWF has been showing significantly more lowland snow and that carries more weight than all the other models.

This reminds me of our latest event just a couple weeks ago or less though. It kinda overplayed the snow for places especially east if I remember correctly while the pessimistic mesoscale models did much better showing zilch east of puget sound

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Pepto runs for foothills locales. 

Terrain bleed for the foothill locales.